Coins that have not gone up in value for 10 years
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
In another thread, someone mentioned a certain type coin that has not changed much in value in the past 25 years. There are quite a few coins that I own that have not moved in value on the price guides during the past ten years. So that is what this thread is for. Post series, or types of coins that have not moved in price during the last 10 years, or last 5 years. Post series or specific coins that have gone down in value during the past year. I am not looking for the clunkers that got hyped on investment potential, but collector coins, in collector grades that have not participated in the coin bull market of the last five years.
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<< <i>Brown Box IKES >>
Yup! Picked up one for less then $6 the other day. Starting to tone nicely. Good thing too, I like them
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I suspect someone might market these 40 year old rolls and push the prices up. If so, I will probably sell.
At the recent St. Louis show, my son bought 8 rolls of 1959 BU Lincoln Memorial rolls for $3. He's seven and quite the wheeler-and-dealer.
<< <i>I don't think 1950-D nickels have gone up in 40 years. >>
They've gone down, down, down, but during the last few years have gone up.
<< <i> Uncirculated Lincoln cent rolls from 1959-1980 or so.
At the recent St. Louis show, my son bought 8 rolls of 1959 BU Lincoln Memorial rolls for $3. He's seven and quite the wheeler-and-dealer.
I'll say. $4 face value for $3 is a nice bargain. If I could do that well 1000 times a day, things would be rather nice.
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<< <i>
<< <i> Uncirculated Lincoln cent rolls from 1959-1980 or so.
At the recent St. Louis show, my son bought 8 rolls of 1959 BU Lincoln Memorial rolls for $3. He's seven and quite the wheeler-and-dealer.
I'll say. $4 face value for $3 is a nice bargain. If I could do that well 1000 times a day, things would be rather nice. >>
Rolls almost deserve a topic of their own. When I was a young person, I bought a roll of the low mintage 1968-S cents. I think I am still underwater on those. Good thing they were only $2 or $3 or whatever and I only bought the one roll. Maybe when copper goes to $10 a pound, I'll be able to sell for a profit
Link to indexes
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
roadrunner
<< <i>How bout the 1982 Washington Commem? >>
Hahahah! What a joke that coin was. I carry one in my pocket change and show it to kids. They get a kick out of seeing a coin they have never seen before... I carry that and a toned SAE(raw) in my change. Not a lot of people have ever seen the SAE (ASE) either. Makes a nice pocket piece. The toning has worn down in spots.
I think the mint sets have not moved any in 10 years. I picked some up at $5 each, some $4. Not much movement there.
Jonathan
Oscar Wilde
Collect for the love of the hobby, the beauty of the coins, and enjoy the ride.
Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society.
Semper ubi sub ubi
<< <i>Virtually all modern proof sets in average condition. >>
Is this true? Some sets from the 1960s have definitely firmed up in price. I bought a couple of 1960s set with a Franklin for $6, and those sell for $10 to $12 today. The ten-year-old 1996 proof set sells for about issue price, but the 1996 prestige set is the key to the series, selling for ten times issue price and all the 1995 sets sell for nice premiums. Certainly some sets such as the 3 million plus mintage sets from the 1970s and 1980s have gone down, but the blanket assertion "virtually all" is inaccurate.
<< <i>PCGS charts various coin indexes on the home page. All but the key dates and rarities index are still far below their 89 high. Most are still 30% of their previuos peak. Click on 1970 to date for a clear picture.
Link to indexes >>
That's why I choose ten years. Its supposed to be a bull market for coins, but it is mostly generals moving forward without many ground troops.
The PCGS ten year chart shows about a 25% gain, with about 20% over the last five years.
http://www.pcgs.com/coinindex/index10graph.chtml link
What also brought this to mind is the recent question asking about investment coins at $200 for a ten year period. Seems like slim pickings for most collector coins going ten years back. There are headlines about record prices for the upper end and a few registry coins, but many, many collector coins have not budged.
<< <i>Many semi key lincolns. I had a VF 1924-d purchased for me in 1964 for the princely sum of $25. At that time you could have bought several red unc Indian cents for that amount. Today...it's still worth about the same $25.
roadrunner >>
Geez, that is amazing. The average "investor" probably put the $25 into proof sets from the mint or uncirculated rolls of 1959-D Memorial cents
<< <i>The one I don't understand is the 87 Mint Set. The only halves that year were in the mint sets. >>
Mintage of this set was very high. There were probably about 100,000 of each of the
Philly and Denver souvenir sets as well. The demand is easily sated by the number of
these that come on the market. In time the number available will decrease but this
could be years away. The surest way for the price of this to strenghten would be for
an increase in demand.
The other coins in the set are interesting in that this was the second year that the mint
used burnished planchets for many of the coins. There are a lot of very well made and
very PL coins in the set but most are heavily scratched up. A few of the coins made for
circulation are also pretty nice and PL's are more common here than other dates as well.
The price of this set is off a little in the last couple years but is still about 25% higher than
ten years back. I would agree that choice sets are dramatically undervalued though typ-
ical set are much less so.
<< <i>
<< <i>Many semi key lincolns. I had a VF 1924-d purchased for me in 1964 for the princely sum of $25. At that time you could have bought several red unc Indian cents for that amount. Today...it's still worth about the same $25.
roadrunner >>
Geez, that is amazing. The average "investor" probably put the $25 into proof sets from the mint or uncirculated rolls of 1959-D Memorial cents
All memorial cents are very common in uncirculated condition compared to the demand. Oh
sure, there are a few that have premiums like the '84-D and the '86's but even these are avail-
able in quantity if you are patient and willing to pay the price. Part of the reason they outweigh
demand is that demand is much lower for the memorials and some of the memorials were set aside
in enormous numbers. Many millions of the '59 to '64 issues were set aside. There were smaller but
still very substantial numbers saved in the mid-'70's of most issues.
Many of these coins are pretty bad though. Quality stepped down sharply in '65 and has taken sev-
eral more steps since. Only in the mid-90's did quality start ramping back up. Some dates were poorly
made and some have tarnished since. A nice choice set of memorials can be put together for no premium
if you have patience, but a gem set will prove much more difficult and will cost much more. Many of these
coins are scarcer in very high grade than the old key date Lincolns. These can prove difficult to locate raw
or slabbed. Prices are far lower because demand is far lower.
gem unc ms65 barber quarters
gem proof 65 bn rb classic head half cents
monster toned gem proof lib nicks
monster toned superb gem proof satin 1936 buff nicks
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Another bunch that won't be going up anytime soon is some of that junk on e-bay. Some fellers think that they are making a killing and are in for a rude awakening when they try to sell.
Belly up to the bar and buy the good stuff from reputable dealers (and their auctions) and you won't need to shop around for another sucker when it comes time to sell.
Thats my take on it anyway
<< <i>All the better for those of us who are collectors. Everything finds it's true value in relation to demand. Prices sometimes get driven up beyond their value by hype. A good example is some of these eye burning toners that are showing up all over the place. It's supposed to be the coin, not the color.
Another bunch that won't be going up anytime soon is some of that junk on e-bay. Some fellers think that they are making a killing and are in for a rude awakening when they try to sell.
Belly up to the bar and buy the good stuff from reputable dealers (and their auctions) and you won't need to shop around for another sucker when it comes time to sell.
Thats my take on it anyway >>
Buying good stuff from reputable dealers often means paying a hefty "nice coin" premium. Sometimes the premium is worth it, but if the market has changed when it comes time to sell, the premium may have dropped or disappeared. If the area has cooled down, it may not matter much how nice the coin is for the grade, dealers will want to flip the coin, not carry it in inventory, and collectors will be looking for a bargain or the next grade up or down. That semi-key Lincoln cent that Roadrunner bought in 1964 for $25 probably came from a reputable dealer, and probably is a nice coin for the grade.
The conventional wisdom in 1964 was to buy proof sets from the mint, and uncirculated rolls. The conventional wisdom in 2006 is to buy nice better date coins in high grades that are nice for the grade. I am not sure how well today's conventional wisdom will hold up in 2048. I'd bet at least 50-50 that it will be no better than the wisdom from 1964. That someone somewhere will be posting about a nice certified high grade key date coin that they bought in 2006 and here it is 2048 and is still worth the same as they paid for it.
This thread gives perspective. There have been recent threads on the top performers for 2005, with many coins going up 20% or more in one year. Threads on what $200 coins to buy now that will go up in value, on newbies asking how to invest $10,000, on what coins have doubled in value during the past year. The harsh reality is that the average collector will have done well to break even over the past ten years factoring in inflation and buy/sell spreads. And this is with the strong tail wind of a nascent bull market in gold and silver. The collectors on the forum are above average in their collecting habits, but virtually every one of them has many coins that have done nothing over the past ten years. Those that don't either are dealers, exceptionally lucky, or fooling themselves.
The "stupid" newbie, probably would do well to get half their money back out factoring in everything. The common mistakes being buying cleaned, damaged, altered, artificially toned, or just low end certified coins for their grade.
Again, collectors need to enjoy the hobby with resale and investment way on the back burner. Dealers make most of the money. If a collector has no desire to become a part-time dealer, odds are they are not going to make much money. The entire ten-year 25% increase in value in the PCGS index of high grade rare coins can be made by a dealer in two or three quick flip deals. For some dealers, 25% is how much they mark up on each transaction, especially for slow moving material.
A handful of collectors have done very well financially and they get a lot of the press. However, their performance is exceptional and will not be duplicated by the average collector. Those collectors did well buying "nice coins" but when they bought the premium was lower. In the current market, with a "nice coin" premium often 20%, 50% or more, the current crop of buyers may or may not get all of that back when it comes their turn to sell. There are no guarantees, especially if a hot market segment cools down.
<< <i>
<< <i>All the better for those of us who are collectors. Everything finds it's true value in relation to demand. Prices sometimes get driven up beyond their value by hype. A good example is some of these eye burning toners that are showing up all over the place. It's supposed to be the coin, not the color.
Another bunch that won't be going up anytime soon is some of that junk on e-bay. Some fellers think that they are making a killing and are in for a rude awakening when they try to sell.
Belly up to the bar and buy the good stuff from reputable dealers (and their auctions) and you won't need to shop around for another sucker when it comes time to sell.
Thats my take on it anyway >>
Buying good stuff from reputable dealers often means paying a hefty "nice coin" premium. Sometimes the premium is worth it, but if the market has changed when it comes time to sell, the premium may have dropped or disappeared. If the area has cooled down, it may not matter much how nice the coin is for the grade, dealers will want to flip the coin, not carry it in inventory, and collectors will be looking for a bargain or the next grade up or down. That semi-key Lincoln cent that Roadrunner bought in 1964 for $25 probably came from a reputable dealer, and probably is a nice coin for the grade.
The conventional wisdom in 1964 was to buy proof sets from the mint, and uncirculated rolls. The conventional wisdom in 2006 is to buy nice better date coins in high grades that are nice for the grade. I am not sure how well today's conventional wisdom will hold up in 2048. I'd bet at least 50-50 that it will be no better than the wisdom from 1964. That someone somewhere will be posting about a nice certified high grade key date coin that they bought in 2006 and here it is 2048 and is still worth the same as they paid for it.
This thread gives perspective. There have been recent threads on the top performers for 2005, with many coins going up 20% or more in one year. Threads on what $200 coins to buy now that will go up in value, on newbies asking how to invest $10,000, on what coins have doubled in value during the past year. The harsh reality is that the average collector will have done well to break even over the past ten years factoring in inflation and buy/sell spreads. And this is with the strong tail wind of a nascent bull market in gold and silver. The collectors on the forum are above average in their collecting habits, but virtually every one of them has many coins that have done nothing over the past ten years. Those that don't either are dealers, exceptionally lucky, or fooling themselves.
The "stupid" newbie, probably would do well to get half their money back out factoring in everything. The common mistakes being buying cleaned, damaged, altered, artificially toned, or just low end certified coins for their grade.
Again, collectors need to enjoy the hobby with resale and investment way on the back burner. Dealers make most of the money. If a collector has no desire to become a part-time dealer, odds are they are not going to make much money. The entire ten-year 25% increase in value in the PCGS index of high grade rare coins can be made by a dealer in two or three quick flip deals. For some dealers, 25% is how much they mark up on each transaction, especially for slow moving material.
A handful of collectors have done very well financially and they get a lot of the press. However, their performance is exceptional and will not be duplicated by the average collector. Those collectors did well buying "nice coins" but when they bought the premium was lower. In the current market, with a "nice coin" premium often 20%, 50% or more, the current crop of buyers may or may not get all of that back when it comes their turn to sell. There are no guarantees, especially if a hot market segment cools down. >>
Excellent post.
I suspect real collectors generally do pretty well. Oh sure there's on trap after another in this
hobby from silver art bars to bags of the same ol' same ol', but one doesn't have to get caught
up in these things. Most real collectors will focus on something that is of interest to him whether
this is a tight or very diffuse focus. He will learn about the area of interest and learn what makes
it desirable to him. Collectors also learn about the markets and the abberations in them which can
allow them to profit even as they are assembling sets. While real collectors can do well, enjoy their
hobby, and even profit in any area, the herd tends only to slaughter.
New collectors with only an eye to profit will probably lose nearly as much as previous generations,
but those with an eye to what collecting is really about will reap all the rewards of the hobby and
will likely have a profit to show for it.
Robert A. Heinlein
Dave Bowers writes about a man that built one of the great collections. He was a working man that got a line of credit on his home and bought the best that he could afford, pay his account down and do it again, with never a thought about making money, just enjoying a great hobby. While I'm not advocating this type of collecting, it does illustrate that if you are a true collector with a good working relationship with a good company, you have an avenue to a very rewarding hobby.
Please notice that I never promised vast untold riches awaited you, only a very rewarding hobby.
FrederickCoinClub
<< <i>David Lange of NGC gave a talk on minst state Mercury dimes at the last ANA meeting. He used greysheets from 10 years back to show how many of the dimes have decreased in value over the past decade. The 1916-D and the 1942/1 overdates have done well. Other key dates such as the 1921 have been flat even in MS64, 65 and 65 FB. >>
I don't follow all coins, but I'd bet the same is true for many other series. If someone polled newer collectors with a year or less in the hobby with no reference materials, I believe the newbie crowd would have wildly high appreciation rate guesses for most coins over the last ten years. If the poll question were how did the key date 1921 dime certified MS65, do over the past ten years, I'd put the median over/under on newbie guesses at +100% appreciation. A few would guess +200%, +300%, +500% or more, even though the coin's value is flat. After all it is a key date, in a popular series, certified in a tough grade.
Time for a reality check.
curly
Member
Posts: 184
Joined: Nov 2005
Monday February 27, 2006 7:00 AM (NEW!)
All the better for those of us who are collectors. Everything finds it's true value in relation to demand. Prices sometimes get driven up beyond their value by hype. A good example is some of these eye burning toner morgans that are showing up all over the place. It's supposed to be the coin, not the color.
yes ................. and not so simple there are exceptions many of them-see below
but if you buy the right non morgan dollar choice to gem to superb gem coins with monster coloration that are scarce like pre 1915 ms and proof type coins then you will never go wrong as these are the blue chips
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....provided the market goes up. Anyone who took that advice in 1988 would have lost 80%.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
My icon IS my coin. It is a gem 1949 FBL Franklin.
I always try to look through the tone if I can and see the condition of the coin. If I don't like it, I don't bad mouth it, I just move to the next table.
<< <i>
All the better for those of us who are collectors. Everything finds it's true value in relation to demand. Prices sometimes get driven up beyond their value by hype. A good example is some of these eye burning toner morgans that are showing up all over the place. It's supposed to be the coin, not the color.
>>>
yes ................. and not so simple there are exceptions many of them-see below
but if you buy the right non morgan dollar choice to gem to superb gem coins with monster coloration that are scarce like pre 1915 ms and proof type coins then you will never go wrong as these are the blue chips >>
"Never go wrong"--I can only laugh at that one. If a buyer pays truly "stupid" money (e.g. from a dealer who pays top dollar to get his/her coins and then marks up another 50% on top of an already high market price) that person may be buried for the next 40 years, no matter how nice the coin. Price matters. Things go in and out of style. Monster toners are "hot" right now, going for insane money. In twenty years, they may be out of fashion and go for pennies on the dollar. Stranger things have been known to happen, like a nice properly graded semi-key date coin in the most popular series costing the same now as it did in 1964.