What will be the next coin value stimulus program?
Coinstartled
Posts: 10,135 ✭✭✭✭✭
Third party grading.........check
Registry sets.....................check
Hypnotic little stickers....check
What will be the next driver of coin pricing?
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Maybe an adopt a billionaire program. Make friends with a rich guy and convince him that coins are better than womanizing and personal jets.
Spoken like someone who has never womanized on a personal jet.
Spoken by someone who has never womanized on a personal jet.
Mile high club can never compete with an experimental rinse Sac!
The "natural toned" sticker is coming for all those straight graded QC slabs out there.
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Not sure what "artificial" stimulus exists....But I don't claim to be a visionary.
I think what we need is just a natural shift to nostalgia! A bunch of "digitally weary" people shifting to antiques, and hand-made, and thing grandma used to have, and (dare I say) classic coins!
Might happen if they remove the 1-cent coin from production....might come if some influential people turn to coins....might never come, I don't know.
I think the higher end items that are most influenced by the grading/registry/sticker game have continued to do well, (based on observations from these forums). It's the run-of-the-mill, average collector, "dirty old coins" that seem to be floundering from lack of interest. And that increase in interest probably isn't going to come from INSIDE the hobby....
You forgot plus grades.
My wager is fractional grades or a change to a 100 point scale (or maybe both).
As long as Boomers are disposing of more coins than GenX, millenials, and GenZ are buying, there is downward pressure on prices. Maybe a baby boomer lifespan increase of 20-30 years would do it. This generation "culling the herd" has been one of the things putting downward pressure on prices for at least a decade, since they've been reaching retirement age.
Also, a nice increase in gold/silver prices might bring more mainstream attention to numismatics, along with some new collectors and their money.
"Innovations" like plusses, stickers, etc. just keeps the same money running in circles within the hobby.
I'm with Cameo............reduced submission numbers will drive TPG's to champion the 100 point grading system. I was at a PCGS luncheon when Homerun mentioned it 10 years ago.
What will happen to the existing grades? Will there be a program to regrade them at the new scale or will there be a conversion scale?
Probably the inclusion of a video that has beautifully recorded images and a vibrant description of the coins virtues as spoken by a god of numismatics.
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Sticker removal service.
MS71 is the new MS70
ANA 50+ year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
Author: 3rd Edition of the SampleSlabs book, https://sampleslabs.info/
What if somebody finally realized that grading is subjective and started cracking coins out of their slabs thinking that they might come back a higher grade, even though their the same coins. What the he** would we do then?
Or, what if everyone figured out at the same time that, if everyone knew how to grade, then everyone might start buying the coin instead of the holder?? OMG!!!??? What would happen then???
Good idea as the 70 premium on moderns has mostly flattened out.
Step back for the ultimate!
MUSICAL SLABS
Huh? Good? Outstanding? Can hardly wait?
Not sure if windup or battery though, but no one will want coins without them !!!
I think we would have a MS70+. Not only "perfect" but also "extra special."
Secondary stickers that approve or deny the cac sticker. Just to add further depth to the wormhole of grading/TPG's.
Brilliant!!
"Saints go marching in"
"Three coins in the fountain"
"Ten cents a dance..."
"Pennies from Heaven"
Darn that Ho just stole my jet.
coins in ogp, since everyone has slabs.
I foresee computer grading..... still on the horizon simply due to cost of programming...and AI is progressing at an incredible pace..... That being said, it is likely a 'back room' project being worked at the leading TPG's....possibly a 100 point system preceding the computer system. Although the final OBJECTIVE system will then put a stop to gradeflation, there are millions of coins to be reslabbed...and many more millions still waiting to be slabbed.... so the river of profit will continue - long after all of us are gone to the grading room in the sky....
Cheers, RickO
That would be a sea-change alright, Ricko.
Imagine a graded coin that STAYED that grade!
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I'd like to see someone try to get AI to recognize "eye" appeal.
or art ......
A 4th party grading service that grades and slabs slabbed and stickered coins so you can buy the coin and the slab, although that box of twenty will get much larger
Steve
I'm really of the opinion that the future of the coin market is in getting the discussion focused on coins and their stories, rather than plastic and stickers. The current paradigm has been pushed pretty far (I'm sure it can be pushed further, but I'm also not convinced there's much meat left on the bone).
Sit down with someone who doesn't know anything about coins and show them a coin and talk with them about it in the context of TPGs, grading, and CAC. Take another non-coin fan and show them a coin and tell them an interesting story about it. Pay attention to the way that they respond.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
@ricko
Computer grading is very very simple once the 'grading standard' is accepted.
We now have cameras [hooked up to a computer of course] that can determine the particle size gradation of aggregates coming off of a conveyor in a stone quarry.
Perhaps a few of us could build the future of coin gradation
To keep this coin related ..............
The above coin was received in change at DunkiinDonuts.
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cashless economy.
If you understand what is coming, then you can duck. If not, then you get sucker-punched. - Martin Armstrong
Agree, but will this drive prices north or south?
yes
Sounds like DL Hansen has bought $100 million in bad deals on an total expenditure of less than half that amount.
Andy, you could hit for the cycle on this one alone
And I've got two more after that
More accurately, the focus needs to shift away from grading.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Billion prices and demand for numismatic coins have to increase. Otherwise the southward side of steady. My model train inventory seems to be moving faster than coins.
Decimal points for unc coins, elimination of the plus; now there will be 101 unc grades
A-B-C green stickers to keep the gold ones company
Then we will have 505 possible combinations for an uncirculated coin
A coin graded MS 66.6 would be a "good" purchase if it had an A or B sticker, but "not good" if stickerless or C sticker
Fun days ahead for collectors.
Commems and Early Type
The US Mint sent me a letter/Survey asking about their services and issues. I had much to say too much to print here. You guys know the "modern problems" so I won't bore you.
I will say this with regard to Classic coins much like the ones we collect and the way dealing in them as become, enjoy the "hobby".
Now, what will stimulate the coin market again like days of old. I am sorry, but NOTHING.
Coins are fun, interesting, historical, cultural, educational and just great, but I think I agree with "AI" and Ricko on this one help: computer grading. That will be a short lived stimulus and a dangerous repeat of the past run up of new holder mania. This hobby is driven by a pure supply/demand, although, Jean Baptist Say would say, "Supply can create demand" and the US Mint is the biggest proponent in that economic 101 lesson "selling Change".(50 states was enough quarters)
All we really have is a large supply of people 30 to 45 years old in prime earning years and they are not interested, or can't afford to or don't see the point in spending on Rare Coins. They quickly see "rare" as a relative term. Cashless society is a cool idea as a stimulus. North or South. SOUTH. (think collecting original Mastercharge cards.
Putting money in a hobby is really great. Looking for an increased value in coins with another grading system is short term. The market's promoted, manipulated, too expensive, cyclical, fraught with cheating i.e. false coins from over seas. WE NEED NEW COLLECTORS and I don't see enough coming in.
Introducing more YNs into the hobby when they are young and then waiting until they have discretionary income.