Auction prices
lunytune2
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I am trying to figure a fair buying price for a particular coin . All auction results show the coin going between $2900 - $3200 . With the exception of the last auction which was $5100. Does this still make this a $3000. Coin ?
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Coin Rarities Online
What would you say is the best indicator ?
I think auctions are a good indicator of value, so long as the item is already established and appears with some degree of frequency. Examples would be the 1916-d Mercury dime and the 1909-s VDB cent. There are several in most any auction venue.
Rare and esoteric items are an entirely different animal. There, it depends on how bad two people want it or how willing they may be to take the risk of never having another shot in their lifetimes.
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How old are the records between 2900 and 3200?
July 2012 .... The $5100 is 8 months later.
Or, same series/date/grade/tpgs but each coin has their own look (high end/toned/etc) to them that would differentiate?
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bob
http://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/details.aspx?r=8285&v=&dv=1860-c&pf=ms&c=61&g=0
If the 1860-c $5 is the coin in question, a jump from $3K to $5K is like going from XF45 to AU53. That should be discernible. Now if "only" 2 new buyers showed up, then 1 just got their coin. The next time out it should be back down in price, unless another fresh face shows up.
it would be shown as sold @$115.00.?
Or just amount no buyer fee?
Think like a dealer. Buy like a dealer.
While I doubt that the coin would bring $5,100 again, it is stickered and is certainly worth a premium over the $3k variety (since it seems most were not stickered). In many cases the market has changed so dramatically it is hard to use the pre 2009 auction records especially. That being said, you can also see a PCGS AU55 selling recently for $4348, which you also have to keep in mind, even though it was CAC'd.
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The buyer's fee is also included on the PCGS Auction records that were linked.
While I doubt that the coin would bring $5,100 again, it is stickered and is certainly worth a premium over the $3k variety (since it seems most were not stickered). In many cases the market has changed so dramatically it is hard to use the pre 2009 auction records especially.
That being said, you can also see a PCGS AU55 selling recently for $4348, which you also have to keep in mind, even though it was CAC'd.
You can also see on the auction record notes that this same PCGS AU-55 mentioned previously sold for $5,288 in a Sept 2013 auction. So could be some downward trend on this, but did not check others closely to see if that holds up for other grades. The CAC on the $5,100 AU-53 may be a big part of what made it an outlier if the other ones were not CAC'd.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
The research I did for my current article is directly relevant to this statement and is reflected in part in charts (graphs) that I compiled. Price for PCGS certified coins of the same date and type with the same assigned grade tend to fluctuate even when underlying market levels are almost unchanged. Differences among the coins are reasons, not the only reasons.
Interpreting Auction Prices for PCGS & NGC “MS-66” Barber Quarter Type Coins
Although plotting a trend line is helpful, it would be misleading as there are likely to be important differences among the coins.
Boichman: "Same coin? ie., same TPGS, grade, and serial #? ... Or, same series/date/grade/tpgs but each coin has their own look (high end/toned/etc) to them that would differentiate?"
Maybe I mis-understood the original post? I thought that LunyTune was referring to auction records for different coins of the same date (or equivalent dates) with the same PCGS grades. Multiple auction appearances of the same exact coin would be a different matter.
AUandAG: "Things don't change that much in 8 months. Would love to see pics to compare. "
Prices are down from 10% to 25% since August 2015, depending upon the series. Some particular coins have dropped more or not at all.
Market Realities & Strong Prices Realized in Rarities Night Auction
The Marvelous Pogue Family Coin Collection, part 14: Successful Third Auction Given Uncertain Market Conditions
LunyTune: "The $5100 one is the actual coin I located. Here is the auction page
http://www.pcgs.com/auctionpri...=1860-c&pf=ms&c=61&g=0
"
Now, this thread is becoming unclear to me. Are we talking about a PCGS graded AU-53 1860-C Half Eagle? The given URL above includes a listing for one that was sold by GreatCollections for $5115 on 07/07/13. According to researchers here at PCGS, it seems that it was the first PCGS graded AU-53 1860-C Half Eagle to have been auctioned in eight years, not eight months! None have been auctioned since?
Roadunner: " There has to be a specific reason that other one fetched $5100....stickered, high end, possible upgrade, distinctly finer than normal, original skin, nice color, etc."
As a general rule, this makes sense, though sometimes two bidders will go crazy while bidding on an artificially toned or otherwise doctored coin.
Roadunner: "It should be obvious in 80% of cases just comparing photos on why that one brought so much more."
I disagree with this point. It does not make sense to grade coins from pictures. Also, coin doctoring is not usually detectable from pictures, though often there are clues.
JohnBrush: "While I doubt that the coin would bring $5,100 again, it is stickered and is certainly worth a premium over the $3k variety (since it seems most were not stickered)."
I had assumed that the readers of this thread would be aware that the stickers have value. There is certainly a good chance that the mentioned 1860-C is superior to others that are also graded as "AU-53," though I personally would not assume that without actually seeing the coins.
"In many cases the market has changed so dramatically it is hard to use the pre 2009 auction records especially."
Doug Winter might be the person to ask about Charlotte Mint gold coins. Overall, markets for rarities were fairly stable from some point in 2010 until some point in the middle of 2015. Values for C-Mint gold could have been lower or higher than overall trends. As John says, "pre-2009 auctions records especially" are a whole different matter.