Legend Market Report

Justacommeman · January 8, 2016 3:10PM

dont hit this link if you expect flawless grammar and spelling. Hit this link if want to read a major dealers POV

mark

TopographicOceans · January 8, 2016 3:35PM

Durning set up the Heritage Auction started. We had been following it in total disbelief. We figured there would be a throng of last minute bidders. Not only did that NOT happen-but in the first session, MANY (and we mean MANY) coins sold for cents on the dollar.

The one I lost out by one bid increment sure didn't go for cents on the dollar, and I wanted it

Boosibri · January 8, 2016 4:10PM

Nice 1800. What did it sell for?

I was outbid on the one lot I bid on. It sold for the correct money for its quality. I had hoped to get a deal with the current market. Nope.

TopographicOceans · January 8, 2016 4:43PM

$9,000 ($10,575.00 with BP)

I wish I would have went the extra $600 now because I really liked this one.

Oh well, another one will come along. I'm going to Long Beach next month and I'll be looking. This is my coin to buy in 2016

1800 Half Eagle, BD-2, AU58

Partially Lustrous, Well-Detailed
This is a pleasantly unabraded Borderline Uncirculated example, boasting substantial luster and rich straw-gold color. The drapery, cap, and forehead show friction, as does the eagle's breast, but much of this evenly struck coin retains its initial design definition.

Boosibri · January 8, 2016 4:57PM

Decent price. I paid more for this AU55 which I think is exceptional for the grade.

TopographicOceans · January 8, 2016 5:15PM

That's a nice coin. I'd be happy with it.

Now I wish I wasn't so cheap on the one today.

Walkerguy21D · January 8, 2016 9:39PM

Probably one of the best and most informative Legend reports I've read.

Thanks for posting.

earlyAurum · January 8, 2016 10:38PM

Very interesting report. Some of those quarter eagles went for strong money in particular that 1804 13 stars and the 1798. Others were more reasonable such as the 1829.

bestday · January 8, 2016 10:43PM

Not cents on the dollar .. but several coins purchased by coin club members went with few or no more bids on auction day .. stock market decline ?

Do any other auctions reject coins as does Legend ?

msch1man · January 8, 2016 11:13PM

Interesting report. "choppy" seems to be a good description for the current market.

roadrunner · January 8, 2016 11:17PM

The choppy coin market of the past 6 months is directly related to the choppy performance of the stock market/commodities, and precious metals still not far from their 6 year lows. A number of commodities have been incinerated in 2015. If the SM stumbles further in 2016 I wouldn't bet the farm on "collectors" flocking to the alternative of rare coins. That didn't quite happen during SM drops/recessions of 1973-1975, 1980-1982, 1990-1993, 2000-2003, 2008-2009, and July 2015 to date. Coins generally bounced from 2011-2014 following the stock market's lead. That leading can occur in both directions.

While certainly not as bad as the FUN auction in 2009, this one 6 years later seems a tad similar based on the Legend reports. Precious metals returning would be a big help to rare coins.

I'll take the "nay" side on Legend getting a cross on that NGC PR66 1859 3cs. They don't come easy on small-sized, gem NGC seated type.....even to the "undisputed 3CS specialist in the world today." Cross(es) were probably attempted before. A dealer leaving 133% profit on the table? Why wouldn't they just crack it out since the downside is so limited? If it's that nice you can always get it back into that NGC 66 holder. And if the coin is a snap to cross to a PCGS PR66 CAC, why wasn't it currently stickered? If a collector/customer sold it to them, I hope they didn't "steal" it. The last reported Heritage sale for an NGC PR66 was $1880 in September.

291fifth · January 8, 2016 11:31PM

An interesting report, but I don't see the big money flocking to coins or any other ordinary collectibles. "Ordinary" these days means everything outside of the interest area of the trophy hunting very rich, though even there I doubt if you are going to see many records set. If coins have become a market in which gains are dependent on getting "upgrades" and "stickers" then it is a market that is in trouble.

Sonorandesertrat · January 9, 2016 12:29AM

" If coins have become a market in which gains are dependent on getting "upgrades" and "stickers" then it is a market that is in trouble."

I agree.

Proofmorgan · January 9, 2016 12:40AM

I agree with the above post, but unfortunately that seems to be the case. Just look at any CAC or plus coin to one that is not, all other factors being equal/similar. It's scary.....

Gazes · January 9, 2016 12:51AM

Wouldn't the argument be that it's priced based not upon the sticker but based upon the coin. And because the coin was solid for the grade it received the sticker ? I know cac is not perfect but it does seem to protect against messed with coins, dreck, etc

braddick · January 9, 2016 1:00AM

What's a, "raspberry coconut"?

BIGAL2749 · January 9, 2016 1:05AM

I think that sums it up quite accurately

OldIndianNutKase · January 9, 2016 1:11AM

I have always appreciated Laura's viewpoint on the market. And her description of the dealer to dealer market at FUN gives us non-dealers a rare view of the wholeale market. Thanks, Laura.

david3142 · January 9, 2016 1:22AM

I was surprised to hear her take on the auction as choppy. The Morgans I had my eye on are going for 50% more than what I would consider fair market (already accounting for the fact that they are excellent examples). perhaps the lower quality coins are going for cheap, but the nice ones are VERY strong.

JBN · January 9, 2016 1:43AM

Was watching a 34-S WLH in P67.

Went for $17500 hammer, $20562 with premium.

Not a top example for its grade.

Price guide is $23500.

mercurydimeguy · January 9, 2016 3:23AM

ricko · January 9, 2016 3:49AM

Interesting report... I always enjoy Laura's reports... Cheers, RickO

ebaytrader · January 9, 2016 4:34AM

Money seems tight in the hobby. Everyone I sold to asked me to hold their check. Everyone I bought from asked me when my check would be good. LOL.

The mid-range coins in the auction that blew my socks off were hammered for strong money. Currency on the other hand...

BG · January 9, 2016 2:16PM

Good report.

Lakesammman · January 9, 2016 2:35PM

And here I thought the Fore collection in Platinum night was pretty cool.

Thanks for posting - I've heard it from other dealers as well that there are some bargains to be had right now.

VanHalen · January 10, 2016 12:15AM

Originally posted by: Justacommeman

dont hit this link if you expect flawless grammar and spelling. Hit this link if want to read a major dealers POV

mark

From the link:

The principals of Legend Numismatics truely believe we are finally at or near a real market bottom. We base this one our activity with collectos and what we see happning at auctions and on the bourse floors of shows we attend.

Want to be optimistic and pull in more buyers "at the bottom"? Sales pitch or true thought?

hchcoin · January 10, 2016 1:55AM

That was a really well done show report.

Zoins · January 10, 2016 2:00AM

Originally posted by: hchcoin

That was a really well done show report.

Agree. Thanks to Julie for a great report.

Unknown · January 11, 2016 1:34AM

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BillJones · January 11, 2016 2:06AM

I was looking mostly for late date Type III gold dollars in the Heritage sale, and the two coins that interested me sure didn't go for "cents on the dollar." They went for more than double what they were worth in my opinion.

Any time I see the combination of the rattle holder + a CAC sticker, green or gold, I know that the price is going to be at least two Mint State grading points higher than the grade number on the slab.

291fifth · January 11, 2016 3:03AM

Originally posted by: BillJones
I was looking mostly for late date Type III gold dollars in the Heritage sale, and the two coins that interested me sure didn't go for "cents on the dollar." They went for more than double what they were worth in my opinion.

Any time I see the combination of the rattle holder + a CAC sticker, green or gold, I know that the price is going to be at least two Mint State grading points higher than the grade number on the slab.

At the recent Michigan State fall coin show I had a discussion with a dealer who indicated that a significant number of collectors now want not only specific slabs but stickers as well before they are willing to buy. I suspect it is this group that is bidding up the prices on this type of coin. This is a trend in collecting I don't like to see but whether or not I like it, it seems to be happening.

Gazes · January 11, 2016 3:07AM

So will be people resubmitting coins hoping they get downgraded and then possibly getting a gold sticker?

291fifth · January 11, 2016 3:11AM

Originally posted by: Gazes
So will be people resubmitting coins hoping they get downgraded and then possibly getting a gold sticker?

It may seem odd, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen. A portion of the market is now so slab and sticker oriented that this will be seen as a way to maximize profits.

steveben · January 11, 2016 3:21AM

pretty price good on the 1800.

BillJones · January 11, 2016 3:42AM

Originally posted by: 291fifth

Originally posted by: BillJones
I was looking mostly for late date Type III gold dollars in the Heritage sale, and the two coins that interested me sure didn't go for "cents on the dollar." They went for more than double what they were worth in my opinion.

Any time I see the combination of the rattle holder + a CAC sticker, green or gold, I know that the price is going to be at least two Mint State grading points higher than the grade number on the slab.

At the recent Michigan State fall coin show I had a discussion with a dealer who indicated that a significant number of collectors now want not only specific slabs but stickers as well before they are willing to buy. I suspect it is this group that is bidding up the prices on this type of coin. This is a trend in collecting I don't like to see but whether or not I like it, it seems to be happening.

I've had this happen to me a couple of other times when I have bid on gold dollars from the 1880s. The coin is worth about $2,400, and these guys pay $4,800 or more. They can't crack the coins out because that would be the end of the rattle holder. So the grade is not going to go up.

I don't care for rattle holders. They don't fit in with the rest of my coins, and like the name says, the coins often rattle and rotate in the slab. I only have bid on them because I wanted the coin.

MadMarty · January 11, 2016 5:35AM

Wow she only used the word dreck 5 times...

Proofmorgan · January 11, 2016 1:09PM

I bid on a 1844 H10 in NGC Soap Gold CAC in the FUN internet auction. Graded 63 on the holder and the in hand technical grade was a 64. The color was amazing, though. PCGS retail was $390 as it sat. The coin hit the block at $1100 and I pushed it up to $2585 before I gave up. I really only wanted to spend $1500 and got caught up. I wonder if it was a nuclear bid or someone really wanted it. Lot #7670

SoCalBigMark · January 11, 2016 2:22PM

One bad thing about fantastic small coins in No Line Fatties is you can't see them, the coin is so far down in a thick slab only pictures tell the story.

Zoins · January 11, 2016 2:30PM

Seems to be getting more worthwhile to make beans.

TwoSides2aCoin · January 11, 2016 2:40PM

Once atop the mountain, it's easier to see below.

etexmike · January 11, 2016 8:52PM

Always enjoy reading the take on things by Laura.

I can't really play in the Legend arena of coins but it is fun to sit in the stands and watch.

Mike

david3142 · January 11, 2016 9:31PM

I bid on Lot 7412, which was a fatty Gold CAC 1911 nickel with great two-sided color. Mark Feld gave me his opinion that the coin was 66+ and even prettier than another toned 66+ in the auction (7405). 65 bid is around $380. I bid it over $2100 which I thought was really reaching. The coin sold for $6150.

mercurydimeguy · January 11, 2016 9:49PM

I won two coins, bid on 26. I did not increase my target bid/max 1 penny and didn't chase a single coin. I bid on all coins Live Heritage online, instead of how I bid in the past, which is online before Live auction, and I won both coins at about 25% and 40%, respectively, below my desired target rate, and both coins were purchased by me at nearly 10 year historic low

Both coins are super choice, which I chose not to bid up artificially prior to auction as I have done in the last decade -- I'm living my new auction strategy

7Jaguars · January 11, 2016 10:21PM

I really don't get how there can be few great coins on sale when there are practically tons up for auction, although I suppose it follows if according to LS collectors are not spending unless great sales come up (hello, is that not what we are in the process of seeing now) - I suppose that if prices are down that there would not be a lot of coins being sold outside the auction halls.

Can't blame her for what appears to be the confusion in the market & I certainly have trouble in figuring out what is going on. As a collector I keep my hands in my pocket if prices at auction or bourse are above what I think is correct even if I hate on missing out on coins on occasion. As the occasional seller, I pray that my lots come up at a time when there is a bit of fever going on quite naturally.

Think I would be nervous at plunking out huge bucks for anything at this time...

roadrunner · January 12, 2016 12:19PM

Originally posted by: TwoSides2aCoin

Once atop the mountain, it's easier to see below.

You can't see the village from the mountains. But the other mountains might be easier to see.

I bid on a 1844 H10 in NGC Soap Gold CAC in the FUN internet auction. Graded 63 on the holder and the in hand technical grade was a 64. The color was amazing, though. PCGS retail was $390 as it sat. The coin hit the block at $1100 and I pushed it up to $2585 before I gave up. I really only wanted to spend $1500 and got caught up. I wonder if it was a nuclear bid or someone really wanted it. Lot #7670

A "63/64" old holder coin realizing MS66+/67 money. Seems nuts to me (sticker-mania?). You can probably find a very pretty PCGS or NGC MS66 for $1,000-$1,500. I'd grade the coin a 65-66 obverse and 65 reverse. The color is a bit darkish, especially on the reverse which could preclude a PCGS MS66 grade. Overall 65 imo. It isn't all that special imo. Many will find the reverse just too subdued for their tastes. PCGS usually is pretty harsh on coins with this "look." Would be very surprised at an NGC MS67 regrade though. Date shows recutting which might be valued more highly by variety collectors even if 1844 is one of the easiest dates to find nice in the 1840's.

There is no doubt how much tougher standards were in 1988-1990 if this coin graded MS63 back then.

1844 MS63

OldIndianNutKase · January 12, 2016 1:36PM

RR, Love and Reality meet........ Sorry you were the underbiddr. But you will do better tommorrow.

roadrunner · January 12, 2016 11:05PM

Originally posted by: OldIndianNutKase

RR, Love and Reality meet........ Sorry you were the underbiddr. But you will do better tommorrow.

It's been 7-1/2 years since I've bid at a coin auction and/or been an underbiddr. Guess again.

Analyst · January 15, 2016 5:28AM

Gazes:Wouldn't the argument be that it's priced based not upon the sticker but based upon the coin. And because the coin was solid for the grade it received the sticker ? I know cac is not perfect but it does seem to protect against messed with coins, dreck, etc

Yes, though, Gazes' remarks are beside the theme that I hope was implied in posts above by 291Fith, DesertRat and ProofMorgan. A substantial portion of auction buying and consigning is done by wholesalers who keep resubmitting the same coins over and over again to PCGS, NGC and CAC. In the coin community, there needs to be more focus on the coins by collectors and less pre-occupation with certifications.

In my recent analysis, I selected some 19th century gold coins from the FUN Platinum Night event that I take to be fair examples of market trends for rare (or very scarce) U.S. gold coins.

Market Realities & Gold in FUN Platinum Night

I have thought a lot about the future of collecting coins and grading services. I have been covering coin auctions and related topics for more than twenty years.

How will Coin Collectors Interpret Certified Coin Grades in the Future?

AMRC · January 15, 2016 5:35AM

After reading that, I want to give all my coins a bath.

cmerlo1 · January 15, 2016 7:10AM

Interesting read and perspective.

IrishMikey · January 15, 2016 10:35PM

Having sold coins with wild toning for 10 to 20 times their "book" value, I just smile and move on. All you need are a handful of collectors with

fat pocketbooks and similar tastes to get prices like that. As for old holders and stickers, that is another issue entirely. While an old holder helps

to prove that a coin's surfaces and color are stable, in the end it is just a few dollars of plastic and a shiny sticker.

However, my personal collection contains a lot of "raw" early copper, so I am a bit prejudiced.

Legend Market Report

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