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The ax has been sharpened. At what point do we see pain ?

1970s1970s Posts: 3,093 ✭✭✭✭✭
My heart is telling me to buy more gold and silver now, along with some platinum.

My mind is telling me that the real pain has yet to really set in.

Having been in this game for quite some time now (ok, only about 20 years), something is telling me to wait a lot longer to get back in.

I know the wise move is to slowly start here, and add a little more on the way down, but does anyone think that GOLD will go under 1,000 and
silver under 10 ?

I know this isn't a good question on a PM board, but what is the max pain on the metals, or does that even exist among stackers ?
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Comments

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,108 ✭✭✭✭✭
    PMs will take a hit when stocks take a hit. Review 08-09 charts. I believe a top is in with stocks, and if I am correct the bottom is not in for PMs. That doesn't stop me from picking up good deals on physical.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • bonkroodbonkrood Posts: 796 ✭✭✭
    Gold under $1000 - Yes
    Silver under $10 - No
    image Steam Power
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 30,977 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Gold under $1000 - Yes
    Silver under $10 - No >>



    Almost makes you wish that it would hurry up and get here, don't it?
  • Timbuk3Timbuk3 Posts: 11,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I hear you loud and clear. I feel the
    same way. I've always done "dollar cost
    averaging." I'm afraid that gold is going
    to go much lower, so I'm holding out
    now.

    Timbuk3
  • PerryHallPerryHall Posts: 45,296 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't think PM's will go much lower so I've been buying when a good deal comes along and I have the funds available. No one rings a bell when the market bottoms out.

    Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.

  • tneigtneig Posts: 1,505 ✭✭✭
    If you're going to be giving it away when you die, who cares what it costs. I plan on spending every sent of it, so price is very important to me.

    I have already felt the pain. I need my pain. Maybe not as much though. Maybe not...
    COA
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,123 ✭✭✭✭✭
    PMs return to pre-run up levels

    The groundhog sees years and years of severe pain ahead
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 7,938 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Speaking purely as a novice in PMs (compared to most on these boards) my bottom numbers for Gold-$770/$800 and Silver-$11. I probably could be more sure of these numbers if I started to buy today, thus ensuring the slide. But for all here I wish you the best in your purchases.
    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,108 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Speaking purely as a novice in PMs (compared to most on these boards) my bottom numbers for Gold-$770/$800 and Silver-$11. I probably could be more sure of these numbers if I started to buy today, thus ensuring the slide. But for all here I wish you the best in your purchases. >>


    While not impossible I expect inflation and mining costs to prevent such low numbers. But I have been wrong before, on many occasions.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I did buy some gold the other day. From a technical standpoint this means that you should wait. I'm usually a little early.image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Posting to see why my first post didn't show up..............
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,825 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I still think the late 70's and early 80's are a great lesson for anyone investing in precious metals. I still wonder where we would be if the war on terror had not awakened the PM market in 2001.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I still think the late 70's and early 80's are a great lesson for anyone investing in precious metals. I still wonder where we would be if the war on terror had not awakened the PM market in 2001.

    So, is this 1976-1978, or is it 1980-1982?
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,825 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I still think the late 70's and early 80's are a great lesson for anyone investing in precious metals. I still wonder where we would be if the war on terror had not awakened the PM market in 2001.

    So, is this 1976-1978, or is it 1980-1982? >>



    Great question, I wish I knew the answer.
  • jdimmickjdimmick Posts: 9,583 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't have a clue, but see gold bottom around 1100. silver 15
  • konsolekonsole Posts: 788 ✭✭✭
    2003 to 2008 silver went up 500%, while the DOW went up 100% in that time period. They both moved up together.

    The DOW has risen 35% from the time silver peaked until now, while silver has fallen 65% in that time period.

    The last 3.5 years has seen massive gains in the DOW while silver has crashed.

    If the stock market starts tanking, what makes you think there is going to be much more selling pressure on silver, since its already sitting right around its all-in cost to mine?

    Why wouldnt the extra fiat coming out of the stock market find its way into the bruised and battered precious metal?
  • renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I still think the late 70's and early 80's are a great lesson for anyone investing in precious metals. I still wonder where we would be if the war on terror had not awakened the PM market in 2001.

    So, is this 1976-1978, or is it 1980-1982? >>



    Yes.

    image
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Before there was a war on terror and drugs, it was on the Hunt Brothers. The war on capitalism has been going on for decades.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,108 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Relative Strength Index and Moving Average Convergence Divergence are both showing an overbought dollar index and oversold silver. This week's action will tell us if RSI and MACD are good indicators for both markets.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • dpooledpoole Posts: 5,940 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The sustained and long-term back story (in the face of all the gyrations in PM prices) remains the trillions in QE infusions in recent years that have naught made it off the banks' spreadsheets save into the stock market. Concerns about when (not whether) all those trillions makes it into the general economy remains my biggest reason to stay in metals.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,548 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Relative Strength Index and Moving Average Convergence Divergence are both showing an overbought dollar index and oversold silver. This week's action will tell us if RSI and MACD are good indicators for both markets. >>



    One needs to understand the information presented by RSI and macd before dismissing their accuracy. Extreme oversold readings are signs of weakness more than indications of impending strength. While bounces usually occur from oversold indicators the magnitude of the bounce is what needs to be observed.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,108 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Relative Strength Index and Moving Average Convergence Divergence are both showing an overbought dollar index and oversold silver. This week's action will tell us if RSI and MACD are good indicators for both markets. >>



    One needs to understand the information presented by RSI and macd before dismissing their accuracy. Extreme oversold readings are signs of weakness more than indications of impending strength. While bounces usually occur from oversold indicators the magnitude of the bounce is what needs to be observed. >>


    Far from dismissing. Only pointing out what they are saying:

    image

    image

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm a little pissed off at myself for not selling enough silver at 40 or even 30 or 25 or 22... after being so smart and buying at 6 and 8 and 10 and 12 and even a little 15 and 20

    So what to do, now that it's 17 and a hay? Suck it up and sell before it goes to 12? or buy buy buy because it's about to turn around? Or sit tight and neither buy or sell like the past couple of years?

    don't need the money for anything else, so mostly just forgetting about it. It's not like I wasn't a bag holder from 1981-2005, I'm used to holding a bag of silver.. for decades...

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,108 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm a little pissed off at myself for not selling enough silver at 40 or even 30 or 25 or 22... after being so smart and buying at 6 and 8 and 10 and 12 and even a little 15 and 20

    So what to do, now that it's 17 and a hay? Suck it up and sell before it goes to 12? or buy buy buy because it's about to turn around? Or sit tight and neither buy or sell like the past couple of years? >>


    Wish I could offer some good advice, but I'm in the same boat. image

    Time heals all wounds. While dollars are currently the place to be, historically, time wounds all dollars.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you have current income, buy. Remember that you are buying an undervalued asset with overvalued dollars. And next time, don't forget to sell a chunk so that the remainder is essentially free.

    Easy to say, harder to do.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Heads rolled off that ax a long time ago...
    keceph `anah
  • SkyManSkyMan Posts: 9,493 ✭✭✭✭✭
    For me, PM's are for TSHTF events. Other than that, they are pretty useless. There are plenty of other financial asset classes that consistently average better returns than PMs. Figure out what percentage of your assets you want in PM's and buy or sell over time to get you to that percentage.

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,548 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Time heals all wounds. While........ time wounds all dollars.


    I like that one derryb.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    That's an opinion so let's not go stating it like it's a fact. That's the problem with PMs, there's absolutely no way to quantify what their "value" should be. So there is NEVER a time we can reliably say that they are over or under valued.

    When you start paying me for an opinion, I'll state it as my opinion.

    Here's an opinion for you - $17.7 trillion in debt and $700 in bogus banking derivatives (revalued arbitrarily from $1.4 Quad) - are unsustainable without creating enough bogus dollars to sink the entire paradigm. And then, there's all those unfunded liabilities of unknown mass from every venue. It's only a matter of time.

    It's not whether gold & silver are over or undervalued anyway. You've missed the point.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,108 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>That's the problem with PMs, there's absolutely no way to quantify what their "value" should be. So there is NEVER a time we can reliably say that they are over or under valued. >>


    So, If someone offers you $5 an ounce for your silver would you be out of your mind to tell them that it is worth more than that?

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,847 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I'm a little pissed off at myself for not selling enough silver at 40 or even 30 or 25 or 22... after being so smart and buying at 6 and 8 and 10 and 12 and even a little 15 and 20

    So what to do, now that it's 17 and a hay? Suck it up and sell before it goes to 12? or buy buy buy because it's about to turn around? Or sit tight and neither buy or sell like the past couple of years?

    don't need the money for anything else, so mostly just forgetting about it. It's not like I wasn't a bag holder from 1981-2005, I'm used to holding a bag of silver.. for decades... >>



    I was taught to hold a bag of silver for every member of the household. Anything more then that is speculation. Those are the bags you can whack yourself over your head with.

    MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Once again, gold is a useless rock no matter how much you or anyone else wants to paint it as some holy grail.

    I haven't noticed any "holy grail" commentary here. Metals are a speculation. The dollar is also a speculation. You don't know all of the facts, and even if you did, I doubt that your analysis would be comprehensive enough to act on.

    Second, even if the U.S. currency should implode, we are so far away from that today that many of us will probably not even be around by then. And of course there is the distinct possibility that it can be bought cheaper next month, next year, etc.

    If you really want to continue in this petty vein, this is only your opinion - and it should be stated as such.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,108 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>That's the problem with PMs, there's absolutely no way to quantify what their "value" should be. So there is NEVER a time we can reliably say that they are over or under valued. >>


    So, If someone offers you $5 an ounce for your silver would you be out of your mind to tell them that it is worth more than that? >>




    I'm not sure how you're drawing that conclusion let alone your arbitrary number of $5. I didn't even say that metals are overvalued, though I do expect further material price declines. I'm saying, as my original words clearly state, that there is no mechanism for stating at ANY given time that it is over OR under valued. People use words like "undervalued" ONLY because it was X% higher last week, and Y% higher last year and they just come to the brainless conclusion that it MUST be "cheap" or "undervalued" today. That is the ENTIRE "fundamental" basis that people employee. Their gut feel. Sorry if I find that methodology to be very suspect. >>


    How about $6, cash? image

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    People use words like "undervalued" ONLY because it was X% higher last week, and Y% higher last year and they just come to the brainless conclusion that it MUST be "cheap" or "undervalued" today. That is the ENTIRE "fundamental" basis that people employee.

    Silver is fundamentally more useful than paper, in my opinion. Every debt-based fiat currency ever created has failed in a big way. I suppose that THIS TIME it's different. Now, we're coming to "brainless conclusions" based on historical precedent. My bad.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I consider everything stated there as fact.

    If it hasn't happened, it isn't fact. You can't state that the currency won't implode as fact any more than I can state that it will as fact.

    Where did you learn logic? At least, I have historical precedent on my side. You have "theory" and not much more besides government tripe.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • mikliamiklia Posts: 1,295 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The "dollar" has lost ~97% of its' value over the last 101 years. >>



    Erm, no. Even if you had taken some minty fresh dollars 101 years ago and put them in a box and forgot about them (the basis for this argument), they'd still be worth way more than face. Just because 'a' dollar has lost ground to inflation doesn't mean 'the' dollar is somehow a loser.



    << <i>
    It's funny the way people share their "predictions", yet provide absolutely no reason or logic for these beliefs. Can someone, anyone, explain to me why silver is down 19% this quarter - was a new silver reserve discovered/mining capacity increased/hoard dumped on market (e.g. spike in supply)? Did someone find a replacement for silver used in PV panels, or any of the other multitude of industrial uses (e.g. significant reduction in demand)? No and no. So explain it to me - why is the price moving contrary to the simple economic law of supply and demand?...
    >>



    investors have decided that other investments are more attractive, hence lower demand, hence lower price. it ain't hard. fwiw, I was long at 15-25, sold everything at 35 (I always sell too early), shorted from 49 to 35, and been buying since it dipped below 19. I'll keep buying and sell half at 35, whenever that is. Hopefully the luck will continue. I don't mind waiting a decade though, and would suggest that anyone over 55 could find better short-term investments.
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    The dollar has lost value? What can't u buy with it anymore?...
    keceph `anah
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The "dollar" has lost ~97% of its' value over the last 101 years. >>


    Hmmm, silver has lost 65+ % in 3 years, seems a lot faster, but is evidence why it's not money, a store of value or an inflation hedge...

    Here is wisdom... right now silver is approx $17 per oz, price is reality, rhetoric isn't...
    keceph `anah
  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 3,787 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Corn is heading for $3/bushel and many will sell at a loss as it costs more than that to produce. A lot of pain coming this fall in the commodity markets.

    image
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And yet you claim that precious metals are "speculation" and you somehow know that they are undervalued. Hmmm. I'd worry more about if you even know what logic is.

    For me they are a speculation and always have been. I'm not going to repeat the reasons I already stated that indicate to me why precious metals are fundamentally undervalued now and that the dollar is overvalued now. We obviously disagree about that.

    I do have some specific advice for you, baseball. You shouldn't be buying any precious metals right now.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • BLUEJAYWAYBLUEJAYWAY Posts: 7,938 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm already in my lifeboat.
    Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I find it hard to take you seriously baseball. I speculate. I evaluate fundamentals. I speculate based on my assessment of the fundamentals. Is that simple enough for you to process?

    Let's see you twist some simple statements, just once more.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I just knew that you could do it, baseball! You lived up to my expectation for lack of comprehension. Sorry, I've wasted my time with you. I'll try real hard not to do it again.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,793 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Tell a person who goes into the mines every day that the silver they're digging for has no fundamental use.
    Miners have been dumbed down since before 1849, then.
  • Real smart people and real dumb people get equal time here. The trick is to figure out who is who.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,548 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Corn is heading for $3/bushel and many will sell at a loss as it costs more than that to produce. A lot of pain coming this fall in the commodity markets.

    image >>



    Seems like a good buy to me. If farmers cant make enough then they wont plant it. That leads to insufficient supply which leads to higher prices. I am a buyer of corn at these levels.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    sometimes u got 2 just face the piper...
    no more silver
    keceph `anah
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Premise on "why do sellers sell their silver if it so scarce" was addressed by one of my favorite dealers, but unable to locate it. Basically, they said that as long as they could replenish their stock they will sell. If at some point the wholesale supply dries up, they will hold on to what they have. I would think most are of the same mind.

    My question would be, "If silver is so scarce [as a useful and in-demand industrial commodity], why are there billions of silver bullion coins and bars sitting around, and being bought and sold and traded, and more minted every single day?" and my follow up question would be, "why are so many outifts producing this stuff and marketing this stuff and making blog posts promoting this stuff?"

    of course, the answer is that the "scarcity" is artificial, manufactured and hyped because there's a profit to be made in it. Except for the bag holders, that is, who lose money.

    If at some point the wholesale supply dries up, they will hold on to what they have.


    Until they die with it?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,297 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Isn't the total value of the entire silver market pretty darn minescule when compared to the stock market's total value? And the bond market dwarfs the stock market, so even if the above ground silver supply is billions of ounces, isn't it a rather moot point?

    How many months of QE would it have taken to buy the world's entire supply of silver? In relative terms, silver seems scarce enough.

    It seems to me that government bondholders are the ones holding something that has been massively over-produced and that pays a pitifully low rate of interest considering the risk involved.

    And considering stocks, there is no end to the numbers of securties dealers, all of whom have vested interests in selling their wares to you. Plenty of hype to go around.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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