Want to help me corner the market in a gold First Sponse coin??
2manycoins2fewfunds
Posts: 3,033 ✭✭✭
Since the Gold First Spouse coins came out so late this year if you are a deep pocketed gambler there may be a rare chance to corner a market.
Lets assume the US MInt struck around 3000-3500 proof and around 2000-2500 uncirculated Cleveland second term FS coins
Around 1000 of each have been sold.
There is no time left for a second run so for just about 1.5-2.5 million you could scoop up all that are left, acquiring >50% of total mintage.
Usually attempts to corner a market fail because buying on open market causes prices to rise but here price on remaining coins is fixed.
Since you are buying coins with only a 17% premium over spot bullion your risk beyond bullion worth will be about $250-$500K for say 1,500-2,500 coins.
Destroy, deface or perhaps most interestingly counter stamp say half of your new hoard and watch the remaining coins soar in value as you will have created a new deep low mintage key for the FS series.
If someone will front the money I'll order them today.
Lets assume the US MInt struck around 3000-3500 proof and around 2000-2500 uncirculated Cleveland second term FS coins
Around 1000 of each have been sold.
There is no time left for a second run so for just about 1.5-2.5 million you could scoop up all that are left, acquiring >50% of total mintage.
Usually attempts to corner a market fail because buying on open market causes prices to rise but here price on remaining coins is fixed.
Since you are buying coins with only a 17% premium over spot bullion your risk beyond bullion worth will be about $250-$500K for say 1,500-2,500 coins.
Destroy, deface or perhaps most interestingly counter stamp say half of your new hoard and watch the remaining coins soar in value as you will have created a new deep low mintage key for the FS series.
If someone will front the money I'll order them today.
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Comments
Losing money is much easier to do than making it.
Sure is easier to lose someone else's money than your own
Is there any assurance that there ever will be during my lifetime?
BTW the marriage of Grover and Frances Cleveland is very interesting. She was 24 and he was 48 when they got married in the White House. To add spice to the story he had been her legal guardian when she was a baby. He bought her first baby carriage. A romance blossomed between them and they were married.
You might have thought that this presidential marriage would have cause a scandal, but it didn't. The public loved and embraced her, and she was a very popular First Lady.
<< <i>Do want you lose your financial butt? Give this scheme a try. This is precisely how the Hunt Brothers took their daddy's fortune, which was one of the largest in the world in its day, and turned it into a huge pile of debt and bankruptcy.
Losing money is much easier to do than making it. >>
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I was planning on using your money......................not mine.
Mostly just pointing out the rather rare occurence of a low mintage bullion based coin with a theoretical opportunity to acquire >50% of mintage at a proportunately low cost.
While mint could close or limit sales I do not believe they could mint more in 2013 without apropriate date change.
Just a point for discussion......................
>>
Wow, that is interesting. Maybe many thought how lovely Mr Cleveland's daughter was. Of course, the ones that owned the medal would be in the know.
The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.
How can you corner the market on CRAP that NOBODY wants!!!!!!!!
<< <i>the more you end up buying the higher the final mintage. >>
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No.....what they have on hand is all they can do.
Too late for second run................thus the unusual concurrence of events.
There are very few collectors of these coins.
And cornering the market is generally illegal anyway.
<< <i>I can't believe I heard this!!!!!!
How can you corner the market on CRAP that NOBODY wants!!!!!!!! >>
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Don't you understand the mentality of collectors??
Once the collectors hear they can't have it they will suddenly all want it.
Kind of a perverse Field of Dreams.....................Destroy them and they will come!!
<< <i>
<< <i>I can't believe I heard this!!!!!!
How can you corner the market on CRAP that NOBODY wants!!!!!!!! >>
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Don't you understand the mentality of collectors??
Once the collectors hear they can't have it they will suddenly all want it.
Kind of a perverse Field of Dreams.....................Destroy them and they will come!! >>
If a number of collectors feel that way at all, the effect is fleeting. Once the frenzy is over the market dies down and nobody cares. The list of modern coins that ended up like this is long and excruciating if you were foolish enough to caught up in the hype. I've watched this happen time after time over the 50+ years that I have been a collector.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>I can't believe I heard this!!!!!!
How can you corner the market on CRAP that NOBODY wants!!!!!!!! >>
..............................................................................................................................
Don't you understand the mentality of collectors??
Once the collectors hear they can't have it they will suddenly all want it.
Kind of a perverse Field of Dreams.....................Destroy them and they will come!! >>
If a number of collectors feel that way at all, the effect is fleeting. Once the frenzy is over the market dies down and nobody cares. The list of modern coins that ended up like this is long and excruciating if you were foolish enough to caught up in the hype. I've watched this happen time after time over the 50+ years that I have been a collector. >>
<< <i>Actual attempts have been made. Mostly ALL of the 1880 gold dollar mintage of 1600 pieces were bought new by two individuals. That is why today with that small mintage it is one of the easiest type 3 dollars to find in high MS >>
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Thats why they should have counter stamped them!!
<< <i>BTW the marriage of Grover and Frances Cleveland is very interesting. She was 24 and he was 48 when they got married in the White House. To add spice to the story he had been her legal guardian when she was a baby. He bought her first baby carriage. A romance blossomed between them and they were married. >>
Robbing the cradle - literally!
60 years into this hobby and I'm still working on my Lincoln set!
What were you thinking!!!
There's still 5 hours left in 2012 and I bet the Mint has all its workers on overtime striking an additional 10000000000 Frances Clevelands!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
sold gold in 1869.
The Hunt brothers were on their way to a successful corner of the silver market in 1980, but the commodity exchanges increased
the margin requirements (as many exchange insiders were short and getting hurt) and the Hunts could not hold onto
their positions.
If someone bought a large quantity of Cleveland Spouse coins the market might rise but for the participants in the corner to
profit, they would need a demand for the coins. Once they "corner" participants started selling, the prices would fall.
A successful corner needs a market participant who is short and squeezed. In 1901 Northern Pacific stock was cornered and rose
from $150 to $1000 in a few days. In 2008, Porsche cornered shares of Volkswagen which temporarily became the most valuable company
in the world.
The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.
It seems to me that if the "market" were worth chasing on these First Spouse pieces that each and every one would sell out BUT the exact opposite is occuring. Sellouts are almost non-existent and as such, mintages are falling?
The name is LEE!
I bet no one will notice!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The plan sounds pretty solid to me. The premium risk is also nil as almost all of the spouses over 1 or 2 years old have list prices over the current issue price in 69 and of course 70.
Not to mention, your premiums from the 25-50% of 70's would cover almost any gold price or other pricing risk.
The only problem to the whole plan is you can't ever unload them in quantity or it would flood the market.
People bought multiples thinking they can grade and flip. Yet the market will now be flooded, no one will really seek them out a few years from now like before, and the end result is an overall cheaper price. Maybe even the price the mint sold them for... Dunno.. But some of the concepts are the same here. The mentality of coin collectors and gambling on a chance to win.
<< <i>Let's corner the market on State Quarter Spoons instead.
I bet no one will notice! >>
Those that did, are 'laughing all the way to the bank."
<< <i>
<< <i>Let's corner the market on State Quarter Spoons instead.
I bet no one will notice! >>
Those that did, are 'laughing all the way to the bank." >>
Depends on which state.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>This thread sorta makes me think of the canadian old gold coin release. No one wanted them around here until a big lot was sold for a reasonable price.
People bought multiples thinking they can grade and flip. Yet the market will now be flooded, no one will really seek them out a few years from now like before, and the end result is an overall cheaper price. Maybe even the price the mint sold them for... Dunno.. But some of the concepts are the same here. The mentality of coin collectors and gambling on a chance to win. >>
Many of the dates of the canadian gold coins offered are, and will remain to be rare coins due to the very low mintages, as well as the huge amount being offically melted.
Dont jump to conclusions - anyone who ordered did not get charged for - or recieve any coins yet - as a result no hoard coins have been graded - or sold (besides "presales").
<< <i>
<< <i>This thread sorta makes me think of the canadian old gold coin release. No one wanted them around here until a big lot was sold for a reasonable price.
People bought multiples thinking they can grade and flip. Yet the market will now be flooded, no one will really seek them out a few years from now like before, and the end result is an overall cheaper price. Maybe even the price the mint sold them for... Dunno.. But some of the concepts are the same here. The mentality of coin collectors and gambling on a chance to win. >>
Many of the dates of the canadian gold coins offered are, and will remain to be rare coins due to the very low mintages, as well as the huge amount being offically melted.
Dont jump to conclusions - anyone who ordered did not get charged for - or recieve any coins yet - as a result no hoard coins have been graded - or sold (besides "presales"). >>
So they were rare before but now the pops have doubled or tripled or more and they are still rare? We have very diff ideas of what rare means especially when the original demand will likely be the same a few years from now.
But my point was, people buy coins all the time based on speculation. The op was just presenting it on a larger scale. Both scenarios have a possible limit on pops, a possible spike in demand then a cooling off period afterwards, people maybe wanting them because others want them, etc... Every year we see these types of things played out.
I am not saying they are lousy coins but many got on board with profits glistening in their eyes. Buying 10-20 of a certain date could very well be a percentage of known existing.
<< <i>Apparently none of you have seen the price guide for some of the First Spouses. In 70, there are already a handful listed at over $3000, and even some 69's approaching $2000 that were originally sold at or around $500-600 (Andrew Jackson MS69). Not bad to quadruple your money in 4 years.
The plan sounds pretty solid to me. The premium risk is also nil as almost all of the spouses over 1 or 2 years old have list prices over the current issue price in 69 and of course 70.
Not to mention, your premiums from the 25-50% of 70's would cover almost any gold price or other pricing risk.
The only problem to the whole plan is you can't ever unload them in quantity or it would flood the market. >>
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The whole purpose of this thread was to point out the unusual occurance of a very low mintage, bullion based coin issued a very end of year with limited sales to date.
That combination of circumstances occurs rarely.
Actually a large part of an attempt to 'corner' this issue would depend on you destroying/defaceing or my favorite ..........counter stamping a large part of your hoard to reduce dramaticly the over all supply.
Instead of a mintage of say 2500 effective mintage would be ~1500-1750.
The basic assumption would be that by reducing the supply by say 750-1000 coins you could recover your lost 17% on the ones you destroyed/defaced by a rise of greater than 17% on the remaining half of your hoard.
Actually I expect that a sudden sellout combined with a public video of you counter stamping large numbers of coins would create quite an interesting situation!!
I would do it myself for fun but alas....too few funds.
Here are three pros and cons for the idea:
PROS:
1. The value of the coin is a fraction over melt, so if gold goes up enough in value, you could win, even if the numismatic value goes to zero. IMO, there are better ways to speculate on bullion, but you can do a lot worse.
2. If the series ever gets hot or promoted down the road, the owner of this hoard could slowly leak his holdings on the market.
3. Some people, just for special interest or any idiosyncratic reason, like a certain coin and enjoy owning multiples.
CONS:
1. Unpopular historical figure depicted with an unattractive coin in an unpopular coin series.
2. Unlikely series to become HOT in future.
3. Expensive coin to take a flyer, let alone hoard.
There are some on this board who don't blink at buying million dollar coins and paying 10-15% juice to boot.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Do you expect that to last for another year??
If so, why are the 2013 spouse coins not on the roster now?
My point is simply this ... would anything surprise you now with the spouse program after what we have seen thus far?
Alice Paul as Pres. Arthur's rendition of Liberty? !
Coins pulled as no longer available out of sequence!
Etc., etc.
Wondercoin
Heck ... you are up that much on the 2007 commons that had a mint issue price of $410.95 back in 2007 and now melt for over twice that amount!
Wondercoin
<< <i>A successful "corner" requires that some other party be short and squeezed. Jay Gould attempted it with gold but failed when the US Government
sold gold in 1869.
The Hunt brothers were on their way to a successful corner of the silver market in 1980, but the commodity exchanges increased
the margin requirements (as many exchange insiders were short and getting hurt) and the Hunts could not hold onto
their positions. >>
What the gov't did back in 1980 was complete fraud. In order to contain the silver price they allowed sell orders only. One could not buy silver on Comex.
I would then start buying all the others I could find on the secondary market. Although the demand is small, after a few years of purchasing every one offered for sale, from every possible source, the available population would be pretty limited. All of this would have to be done without any disclosure. I'd think that within 5 years time there would almost never be any offered for sale and the price may spike.
It happens all the time over the history of this hobby.