Where are the complains about overgraded coins from the "grading services?"
RWB
Posts: 8,082 ✭
Lots of posts about "under graded" coins and ones that "are a lock on MS-200" or other such claims. Probability theory says that over- and under graded coins should occur in equal proportion...
Your dedicated thoughts, please.
Your dedicated thoughts, please.
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How many owners of overgraded coins are willing to sell them at more realistic grades? The overgraded coins have to sit, waiting
for unsophisticated buyers to show up. This skews the distribution of coins in the marketplace, and things will get more complicated
as 'A' coins are pulled in hopes of getting '+' designations (rather than full-point upgrades, as before).
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
However, probability also would suggst that when factoring in regrades, eventually you will find more maxed out grades in the marketplace than undergraded pieces.I believe this to be true because most participants with enough knowledge to play the crack and resubmit game are not entirely stupid about what is undergraded and what isn't (or else they aren't going to be doing it very long!). Thus, coins that may be truely PQ will have more chances to go up one, and coins that are already maxed out will probably not be tried again.
my 2c
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
<< <i>No one wants to admit their own coins are over-graded. You won't see a coin dealer advertising a coin as barely making the grade or "MS65, but could easily degrade a 64." Usually if someone gets a grade better than expected, they sell the coin for a perceived profit and take it as a blessing. >>
That actually happens once in a blue moon. In 2009, I bought a Capped Bust dime from CRO--it was in an NGC 62 slab, and sold as a 58. I crossed it to PCGS as a 55 (and am OK with this grade).
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>No one wants to admit their own coins are over-graded.
I got a couple.
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"Sou Mangueira......."
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"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
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<< <i>
<< <i>No one wants to admit their own coins are over-graded.
I got a couple. >>
Me too!
Anyone have any luck sending them in for down grade and cash or do people hang on and hope for the best when they try to sell?
EAC 6024
<< <i>Hmmmm…....I thought there’d be a line of folks ready to post their horror stories of trying multiple times to get their overgraded MS-65 down to 64. If there are “standards” should not collectors be incensed at deviation both under and over?
No. This is just like any analog measurement.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
<< <i>Lots of posts about "under graded" coins and ones that "are a lock on MS-200" or other such claims. Probability theory says that over- and under graded coins should occur in equal proportion...
Your dedicated thoughts, please. >>
No, it doesn't.
TDN and I have bought overgraded coins for years, but they don't stay there long. They will be crossed at 1 to 3 points lower, become pq for grade, and hopefully will bring great money when sold( many years later,
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SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
<< <i>...Probability theory says that over- and under graded coins should occur in equal proportion... >>
No. Grading is not a blind game of chance. Suppose a grader is looking at a liner 64/65 coin, which in MS65 is valued at 15x what the typical MS64 example would bring. The coin would likely be graded 64. Now play the same game, but the MS65 value is only 1.3x the MS64 value. Now there is much greater likelihood that the coin would be graded 65. Why the difference? Financial liability.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
I'm really glad I never got sucked into that mentality. Today, I still buy raw coins and pay what I think it's worth based on the coin itself, without being swayed by what a label says. Subsequently, not one single coin in my collection is either undergraded or overgraded.
...and collecting is still a LOT of fun. No complaints here!
And had the methodology stayed the same from inception in 1986-1987, then we wouldn't be dealing with an issue this size today. Note that back then the TPG's would use the services of top flight active coin dealers on a rotating basis. Such is not the case today where moderns, bulk submissions, and PF/MS 69-70's generate a lot of the current revenue. Back then it was mostly higher dollar coins.
roadrunner
<< <i>
<< <i>...Probability theory says that over- and under graded coins should occur in equal proportion... >>
No. Grading is not a blind game of chance. Suppose a grader is looking at a liner 64/65 coin, which in MS65 is valued at 15x what the typical MS64 example would bring. The coin would likely be graded 64. Now play the same game, but the MS65 value is only 1.3x the MS64 value. Now there is much greater likelihood that the coin would be graded 65. Why the difference? Financial liability. >>
Bingo. The TPG's have processes in place to suppress overgrading due to liability concerns. It's not a random game of chance [although it may seem that way sometimes!]
Never forget that a coin's "grade" is a matter of the opinions of human beings (and you know how humans are!)
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry