1939 Jefferson Rev38 and Rev40 Populations
BigDowgie
Posts: 1,749 ✭✭✭✭
It's time for an update since this posted back on September 2010.
1939 MS67FS
R38s are now at 12 with 1+
R40s are at 31 with a recent addition od an MS68FS (I saw this one and NOT!)
1939 MS66FS
R38s are at 103
R40s are at 532 with 6+
I think we have only verified 1 MS67FS R38 coin that is shown on CoinFacts. I'm even more convinced that the owners of the remaining 10 or more R38 coins now are trying to find any available REAL R38 coin before they correct the error they have in their sets! My offer still stands...I'll buy any R38 coins you have at PCGS Prices: MS65FS - $140, MS66FS - $300, MS67FS - $800 (Oh yes on this one, the prices are dropping! I'll pay $850!)
Hey whoever you are, you may as well bite the bullet now before the prices of the R40s keep dropping!
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Let me provide a little history around the 1939 Rev38s.
Let me take you back to the early days of grading Jefferson Nickels. I’ve been able to build a timeline of numerous PCGS Population Reports back to July 1998, right about the time the ‘full step’ designation began. Let's just focus on MS67FS pops. From July 1998 through July 2002, PCGS graded 16 1939’s (#84003) as MS67FS. Then between July 2002 and July 2003, PCGS began attributing coins as having Rev38 steps. All of the 16 previously graded coins remained with the PCGS #84003, which became the Rev38 attributed coins. This is where everything went wrong! Given the fact that PCGS would not grade 1938's with their wavy steps tells me all of these previously FS graded coins were Rev40's.
With this information and the fact that I have never seen a true MS67FS Rev38 coin properly designated, I'm 100% certain all these 14 remaining MS67FS coins are truly Rev40’s. The collectors who own these coins should turn them back in for re-attribution, but we know they have not. We did see a couple of collectors "do the right thing". We started with 16 back in July 2002 and as of June 2007 (which is a heck of a long time!) are down to the current population of 14. I can list three Top Jefferson Sets that have an incorrect 1939 Rev38 (#84003) coin in their respective sets. Think about it, NO new 1939 MS67FS Rev38 coins since 2002!
PCGS needs to help push those collectors to get the Pops correct! I would wager there are no MS67FS Rev38's out there, which supports Naggengast's estimates the 1939 MS FS Rev38 coins are truely a rarity.
On the MS66FS Populations, there were 94 MS66FS back in July 2002 that made the same move into the Rev38 designation and now there are only 107. The MS66FS Rev40 Population went from 35 in July 2003 to 223 as of February 2010. Interesting eh!
Prove me wrong and post a picture of an MS67FS Rev38 coin!
Just my thoughts
1939 MS67FS
R38s are now at 12 with 1+
R40s are at 31 with a recent addition od an MS68FS (I saw this one and NOT!)
1939 MS66FS
R38s are at 103
R40s are at 532 with 6+
I think we have only verified 1 MS67FS R38 coin that is shown on CoinFacts. I'm even more convinced that the owners of the remaining 10 or more R38 coins now are trying to find any available REAL R38 coin before they correct the error they have in their sets! My offer still stands...I'll buy any R38 coins you have at PCGS Prices: MS65FS - $140, MS66FS - $300, MS67FS - $800 (Oh yes on this one, the prices are dropping! I'll pay $850!)
Hey whoever you are, you may as well bite the bullet now before the prices of the R40s keep dropping!
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Let me provide a little history around the 1939 Rev38s.
Let me take you back to the early days of grading Jefferson Nickels. I’ve been able to build a timeline of numerous PCGS Population Reports back to July 1998, right about the time the ‘full step’ designation began. Let's just focus on MS67FS pops. From July 1998 through July 2002, PCGS graded 16 1939’s (#84003) as MS67FS. Then between July 2002 and July 2003, PCGS began attributing coins as having Rev38 steps. All of the 16 previously graded coins remained with the PCGS #84003, which became the Rev38 attributed coins. This is where everything went wrong! Given the fact that PCGS would not grade 1938's with their wavy steps tells me all of these previously FS graded coins were Rev40's.
With this information and the fact that I have never seen a true MS67FS Rev38 coin properly designated, I'm 100% certain all these 14 remaining MS67FS coins are truly Rev40’s. The collectors who own these coins should turn them back in for re-attribution, but we know they have not. We did see a couple of collectors "do the right thing". We started with 16 back in July 2002 and as of June 2007 (which is a heck of a long time!) are down to the current population of 14. I can list three Top Jefferson Sets that have an incorrect 1939 Rev38 (#84003) coin in their respective sets. Think about it, NO new 1939 MS67FS Rev38 coins since 2002!
PCGS needs to help push those collectors to get the Pops correct! I would wager there are no MS67FS Rev38's out there, which supports Naggengast's estimates the 1939 MS FS Rev38 coins are truely a rarity.
On the MS66FS Populations, there were 94 MS66FS back in July 2002 that made the same move into the Rev38 designation and now there are only 107. The MS66FS Rev40 Population went from 35 in July 2003 to 223 as of February 2010. Interesting eh!
Prove me wrong and post a picture of an MS67FS Rev38 coin!
Just my thoughts
0
Comments
Prove me wrong and post a picture of an MS67FS Rev38 coin!
Ahh, a fishin' post.
But seriously, I agree with your summary of the rev. of 38 situation. PCGS could have helped themselves by dealing with this issue early on. There are at least two
Lincoln varieties that are being misattributed at this time, and my concerns have fallen on deaf ears. Shag
<< <i>Great research.....do you have pics or can you steer me to where I can see the differences? My old editions of CherryPickers' only talks about the Proof rev.....and all it says it the the 1939's with the Rev of '38 can be identified by the 'wavy, ill-defined steps'.....if that is one of the attributes of the die (if they used the same one they struck Proofs with), wouldn't that by necessity be difficult to have examples of this variety with the FS designation? >>
And here's an excellent definition of the "Reverse of 1938" steps.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I don't think the business strike wavy steps were a function of the Mint using Proof dies, it was just a design modification that occurred during 1939. The new Rev40 dies were introduced during the production runs that year, thus producing both Rev38 and Rev40 coins. The Cherry Pickers proof 1939 and 1940 pictures give you good examples of the two step designs. Leo provided some nice pictures as well.
Dowgie
TD
But wait.........there is more to it and I think everyone needs to open up here and give their explanations as to why they haven't corrected these coins.
The very first thing that I would be worried about is whether I'll get compensated fully if the coin downgrades or receives the correct label. The amount I paid for the coin when it was labeled one way, what will it sell for when the label changes to the lesser valued "Reverse of 1940" steps. Does the price guide show a $3000 difference in value between the two types.
What other problems are there with correcting this label? Anyone?
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
but probably are correct on the populations being off due to being grandfathered in
the price guide could be off - but they go from sales - if they don't come up, the lower scored will increase in value
causing people to look for more and when they can't find any, the price will go up even more
the biggest difference I use to pick up 38 or 40 reverse is on the sides of the steps
the 40 rev has perpendicular lines (at the right end and left end of the steps) from the top of the steps to the ground
while the 38 rev, the step ends blend into the solid part
of course you need to have some steps to determine if this line is there or not - but usually there is
Leos good pics show this on the sides - the 38 rev on top and the 40 rev on bottom
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Nice nickel and don't let that one go!
It's pretty obvious to me that collectors should be turning in the incorrectly attributed MS67 (and all other grades) Rev38's . You are probably righ on speculating that those collectors are holding them in that Rev38 slot until some miracle happens and they obtain and equally graded or better real Rev38.
The current MS67FS pops and price guide for Rev38 (14 @ $2,000) and Rev40 (18 @ 1,900). It's all about dollars and not doing the right thing! For the MS67FS coins that get turned in early enough get a even exchange (no dollars from PCGS) and leave this hole in their collections and would have to go out a buy a real one, if available and at rising prices. If collectors started to turn them in, the longer you waited, the price of the Rev40's start to drop and PCGS should start paying some price differences. But they still would have to replace the Rev38 coin somehow.
The numbers for MS66FS Rev38 (107 @ $450) and Rev40 (482 @ $115). A similar situation here as well, except PCGS should be paying differences. But again, the slot needs to be filled.
If PCGS would step in and fix the ones we know are wrong, this might get the ball rolling? Let me ask you this: would you have a 1953-D MS65FS incorrectly labled as a 1953-S MS65FS in your collection?
Leo, hold on to that awesome correctly attributed beauty. There are very few of these out there. Someday, it will garnish the right respect!
By any stretch, it's definitely hard for those folks to be humble.
But anyway, here's another hard fact. Here are the steps to my coin. The two areas circled under the 1st and 3rd pillars are the most problematic when locating a FS example for 1938PDS and the "Reverse of 1938" dates 1939PDS. Separation in those areas has long been one of the most intensive searches by FS Jefferson nickel collectors throughout the years. Maybe not so under the 1st pillar but the 3rd, that's the stopper. And it also helps to have a strong quarter 6th step. A complete strike includes a good definition of the "Reverse of 1938" steps. By definition, the most steps these coins can have that include the riser and tread is 4+. The first picture appears to show 5 or close to 5, depends how one looks at the steps, but the 2nd picture certainly paints another....picture.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Looks like if anyone has an incorrectly labeled "Reverse of 1940" nickel in a "Reverse of 1938" labeled PCGS holder, they could make upto $100 dollars!
Leo
It can't get anymore simplier than that.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Teletrade Link
<< <i>Not one of the 1939 PCGS MS67FS coins, but here is a non-FS MS67 example! Cleaning this up should be easy folks!
Teletrade Link >>
You would have thought whoever owned that coin should have known better. Now he has a slab out there with his name on it and the coin is all wrong
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Have you seen this thread?
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Hoard the keys.
<< <i>
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>Not one of the 1939 PCGS MS67FS coins, but here is a non-FS MS67 example! Cleaning this up should be easy folks!
Teletrade Link >>
The "Reverse of 1940" coin with a Reverse of 1938" label is up to $140. I'll laugh if there are any snipers!
Leo
To add, I should of said; The Compradore "Reverse of...........
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
the Rev 40 has lower pops in 67 and is worth even more than a 38
Just a thought.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>why would you laugh?
the Rev 40 has lower pops in 67 and is worth even more than a 38
At least someone would be using their pumpkin heads effectively.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
<< <i>why would you laugh?
the Rev 40 has lower pops in 67 and is worth even more than a 38
The coin realized $170............on Sunday, August 17, 2008, the same coin realized $380. It's likely, someone decided to unload the coin after learning it was mislabeled.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
and I thought there were less than 5 issues w/o the FS having been given by PCGS
= although some of those given may not have been deserving
I wonder what they would do with that coin resubmitted under the regrade option
if they would get it correct or exactly the same with a new cert number?
Leo
Edited for an update; only 4 out of 187 were mislabeled, a 98% accuracy.
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
I put in a few bids on that coin Sunday night. I wanted to send it back and get it retired and adjust the Pops.
On to your new topic, grading accuracy from prior sales. I don't think most people (well, at least I wouldn't) would send my incorrectly labeled coins to sell on TT or in an aution. Anyway, it is irrelevant checking previous coin sales for this statistic. The PCGS Pops tell the story. The history laid out above is clear.
Oh well, the owners of these coins know what they need to do. I hope there are not that many Jefferson collectors out there that are ignorant to the difference in Rev38 and Rev40 steps and rely on labels!
ebay NGC MS66 Wrong Reverse Designation
<< <i>NGC is just as bad as PCGS on these designations!
ebay NGC MS66 Wrong Reverse Designation >>
Yeah, well.........there's no choir over there! Everybody's in the fish tank there.
Good luck with that!
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
I rest my case!
I have a MS67 Rev38 non-FS. Still waiting for that MS67FS Rev38!
1. the Regsitry has the power to sway the judgement of otherwise upstanding collectors. this probably helps prevent them from getting their coins attributed correctly.
2. if any Registry Set owners have pictures of improperly attributed coins listed with their Sets PCGS should act based on them to get it correct.
3. i have personally seen PCGS coins holdered between 2003-2008 which were improperly attributed.
4. based solely on the coins i have seen from the series, the best hope of finding a R. 38 1939 coin would probably be from Denver.
My Jefferson Full Step Variety Set (1938 - Current)
My Jefferson Proof Variety Set (1938 - Current)
Awesome coin! This one is a true Jefferson rarity!
Let's clean-up all incorrectly attributed 1939's out there.
I like it! Rarely does this date come fully struck, virtually markfree. And the steps? They appear as close as they can get to 5.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
but the poulation is slowly dropping, now only 13 in report
Yes, you are correct on the incorrect picture in CoinFacts. This is another example of an incorrectly attributed MS67FS 1939 Rev38 coin. This continues to support my thought that NO MS67FS Rev38 coins exist. Now let's ask PCGS why they don't get a hold of the owner and fix this one!
With the Population for the Rev38's going down, it looks like a collector finally did the right thing!