A Collector's Greed: Post your answer...
mcarney1173
Posts: 909 ✭✭✭✭✭
There are three items on a table:
PCGS G4 1916 D Mercury Dime
Two Cardboard Boxes
You are told that the three items are:
PCGS G4 1916 D Mercury Dime
PCGS MS67 FB 1916 D Mercury Dime
Empty Cardboard Box
You are told to take 1 of them (boxes are sealed and you cannot lift them up)
Would you take the G4 or risk a 50/50 chance of picking the MS67.
Please vote and respond with a more elaborate answer. Thanks
PCGS G4 1916 D Mercury Dime
Two Cardboard Boxes
You are told that the three items are:
PCGS G4 1916 D Mercury Dime
PCGS MS67 FB 1916 D Mercury Dime
Empty Cardboard Box
You are told to take 1 of them (boxes are sealed and you cannot lift them up)
Would you take the G4 or risk a 50/50 chance of picking the MS67.
Please vote and respond with a more elaborate answer. Thanks
0
Comments
-Paul
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
Lance.
Please visit my website Millcitynumismatics.com
gotta take the chance. Put it all on black and let it roll.
Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
Many gamblers love odds that give them a 50/50 chance at doubling their money. Imagine the opportunity you provided?
And, as Norm on "Cheers" once stated, "gambling is always fun when there is no risk involved."
*When it is someone else's coin- the GD04 along with the MS67, there is no risk really involved.
peacockcoins
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
<< <i>I would go for the G4. That spot is still open in the Whitman folder I started as a kid and I would love to fill that hole. Most of the early dimes are well circulated so it would fit in perfectly and the little boy in me would be very happy because it would complete the folder. >>
If this were my situation, I would do the same, but for me it would just be the value of the coin. I would risk the $1K and go for the $125K and pick a box.
Donato
Donato's Complete US Type Set ---- Donato's Dansco 7070 Modified Type Set ---- Donato's Basic U.S. Coin Design Set
Successful transactions: Shrub68 (Jim), MWallace (Mike)
Then they get to a guaranteed 125K and keep going, instead. Often ending up with nothing? I can see this as a question of greed...
Oh yeah, forgot to add, - I'd go for the box!
It has more to do with probability than "collector's greed", whatever that is.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
<< <i>It's basic statistics. The expected value of taking the G4 is, say $1000. The expected value from the choice of the other two (50% odds for either the $0 or $100k coin) is $50k. Therefore, the value of the choice of two boxes is 50 times that of taking the G4 coin, and is the statistically sound decision. >>
Yup. Basic probability calcultion.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Ken
<< <i>It all depends upon if the MS67 coin is actually in one of the boxes or if both remaining boxes are empty and one is being scammed. If the boxes could be opened for inspection after the choice is made then that is one thing, but if they cannot then that is another. >>
TomB is a bit of a cynic....
<< <i>Harder question...
There are 3 boxes... one known to have the 67fb, one known to have the G4, and one known to have nothing. You get to choose a box. Before seeing what you chose, the host chooses one of the other two boxes, opens it, and shows it contains either nothing or the G4. Then he/she asks you... Would you like to switch your choice?
Do you switch!? >>
This is starting to get into basic games theory, but for this discussion, there are two 0's (the G4 and the "nothing") and one large score. In your scenario, the odds of you getting the $100,000 score if you go for it are unchanged, but now, the downside for not trying is zero, not the G4. Again, if there were eight boxes left, I would still take the chance (instead of the G4 or nothing).
<< <i>Harder question...
There are 3 boxes... one known to have the 67fb, one known to have the G4, and one known to have nothing. You get to choose a box. Before seeing what you chose, the host chooses one of the other two boxes, opens it, and shows it contains either nothing or the G4. Then he/she asks you... Would you like to switch your choice?
Do you switch!? >>
Yes!
Joe.
.....Dang!.....my box was empty!......
......I collect old stuff......
<< <i>I will take what's behind door number 2 monty. >>
Don't forget about the lovely Carol Maroll...
CoinSpace.com Founder
www.coinspace.com
PS: either way, I'm selling the dime and buying a Rare coin
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I used to watch it, back when there were only three channels, and the other two didn't count.
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
Great hypothetical, there.
Edit to add: after mulling it over and considering my current financial situation, I took the sure thing (the bird in hand) and went with the G4.
I am not surprised to find myself in the minority. Like I said, that would be a difficult choice for me if it were presented in actuality.
But oh, it would be a nice dilemma to face.
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<< <i>if it's a free shot, I take the chance. If I paid any significant money for the chance, I take the sure thing. the way you phrased it, it's a gift, and so voted "Choose"
PS: either way, I'm selling the dime and buying a Rare coin >>
I would pay $1000 for a 50-50 shot at $100,000. How many times can I do it?
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
<< <i>I'm not sure it's greed, but it's risk/reward. Who cares about a good 16-D? It's totally worth the chance at a 67FB. If the choices were a PCGS XF45 1916-D, the 67FB and an empty box I might have to think twice because an XF45 is still an awfully nice coin... >>
I also agree with Ben
*does a quick check of the bluesheet*
$85,000+