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Ambros prediction about what one facet of the "BiG OnE" is

ambro51ambro51 Posts: 14,046 ✭✭✭✭✭
For as long as we can remember, coin grading has been "subjective", and open to opinion. Coins are graded using one basic path, that being the accumulated experience and 'eye' of graders and finalizers who have "seen it all before". It is a visual and experience oriented comparison with the accepted grade patterns of that particular coin and series.

It has, up to this point, all been done 'mentally'. This has always been tempered with the word "subjective", and cannot be called scientific by any reasoning.

But, you say, how can coins be graded in an accurate and consistant manner, without using the "brain" of the graders?

......the most effective way would be a fool proof method of comparing the coin to be graded with those of a like date/type/series that are already 'wearing' a certain grade. With the advances in high quality scanning and digital photography, no doubt over the LAST TWO YEARS (as HRH notes).....a system has been developed using a vast compilation of data that PCGS has gathered together while grading.

Now, the most important part will be that for the most part, the "human" factor will be taken out of the mix. This will be replaced with LASER SCANNING of the coin, which will provide an exceptionally intricate and multi faceted way to compare the coin against the accepted grade standard. By the very detailed nature of this examination, all defects and wear related changes to the coin from the basis MS70 perfect standard can be measured and calculated. Toning, RD RB BN coloration, hairlines, cleanings, luster, quality of strike.......all will be analyzed by the LASER system and computer programs and a grade will be "Calculated and Assigned" which will be much less 'subjective'.

Photograding is not new. It has been tried and for the most part dismissed since up to this point the technology and intense work needed to perfect this has not been done. Over the last two years...I believe, PCGS has been working with the LASER GRADING system to iron out the bugs. No doubt, they have been using a twin grading system in house, and have been carefully studying the results of the LASER system, and the HUMAN system, and have arrived at the conclusion that they are ready to reveal that the LASER system gives more consistant results and proves a more accurate grade than has been to date possible.

After this announcement, coins will FLOOD back into PCGS for regrading by the new LASER system. The guesswork will be eliminated, the subjective nature of the human brain be taken out of the picture, and the NEW SYSTEM will be accepted by the coin collecting world as "the next step".

This will also provide an extensive and detailed record of the minor flaws that each graded coin has. Of course, having this in the data bank will help recovery of stolen coins, aid in the detection of counterfeits, and after a period of 'acceptance' by the collectors, result in a more trustworthy TPG experience.



............and dats what I think~!

Comments

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,852 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Another plausible theory........or maybe one of the graders will be "The Hal Laser" and the other two humans with some weighting? MJ
    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • phehpheh Posts: 1,588
    I've already voiced my opinion that the system you are describing cannot reasonably function in the real world.

    This opinion aside, explain to me why any business would introduce a service which would, by design, reduce and eventually eliminate their profitability.
  • ConstantineConstantine Posts: 2,369 ✭✭✭
    If lasers/computers start grading coins then I can just see all the comments of how they wish for the earlier days when coins were graded by hand. Yes, grading is subjective, we all know that. However, these "standards" that computers can compare to are still subjective. Why? Because man & woman came up with these standards, the software calculations, and made the machines!
  • I agree, but this has already been guessed. It would take a couple years to model the coins that would be used for the comparison.image
  • shorecollshorecoll Posts: 5,447 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I can just hear the screams of the AU63 bust half and copper collectors. The funny thing is...obvious "rub" is obvious "rub", will they adjust the scanners to allow for this?
    ANA-LM, NBS, EAC
  • MoldnutMoldnut Posts: 3,113 ✭✭✭✭
    >>

    This will also provide an extensive and detailed record of the minor flaws that each graded coin has. Of course, having this in the data bank will help recovery of stolen coins, aid in the detection of counterfeits, and after a period of 'acceptance' by the collectors, result in a more trustworthy TPG experience. >>




    Could this be the end of the crackout game for all coins now graded by the "Laser" system??
    Derek

    EAC 6024
  • ambro51ambro51 Posts: 14,046 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I dunno, but it could CERTAINLY make NGC and ANACS coins seem inferior. Also, think of the MILLIONS of pcgs coins already graded that would come back for a second look, and laser grading.

    Frankly, I think only something of this magnitude would live up to HRH's run up. What else would be so Game Changing?
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,948 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This is a distinct possibility and ity should have occurred to me since lead times
    on technology just keep shrinking.

    I still hope the big news is the return of the open forum. image
    tempus fugit extra philosophiam.
  • ambro51ambro51 Posts: 14,046 ✭✭✭✭✭
    technology....


    indeed, who would have though, lets say a decade ago, that nearly every teenager would have a computer in their pocket (iPhone etc).

  • MoldnutMoldnut Posts: 3,113 ✭✭✭✭
    Good thing these coins are going down with this ship, so I could care less whats on the holder. Ill let the next guy down the line worry about itimage

    But really, Im thinking the crackout game will be dead.
    Derek

    EAC 6024
  • CoinosaurusCoinosaurus Posts: 9,645 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The computer grading idea has been around for a long time. HRH claims the big announcement will be something no one has thought of.
  • braddickbraddick Posts: 25,000 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I can't imagine anyone as of yet as even come close to what the announcement will be.

    I do like your very active imagination though.

    Space shuttles practically fly themselves but it still takes human intervention to grade a coin.

    peacockcoins

  • ambro51ambro51 Posts: 14,046 ✭✭✭✭✭
    .......until March 26 anyway image
  • FredFFredF Posts: 527 ✭✭✭
    Well, there are those who will buy the plastic and those who buy the coin.

    Got into a bit of a friendly argument with my dad. I bought an AU58 Seated Half Dollar a few months ago, toned just the way I like it. It had a green bean and I paid a little strong for it but even so it was much less than MS money and perfect for my type set. I'm happy with the purchase. My dad started going over it with the loupe pointing out all the flaws and why it really wasn't a 58. I think he was just jealous image.

    Doesn't matter whether humans came up with the grade on the plastic or a computer does, reasonable people can and will disagree, and if the coin is ugly it doesn't matter what a computer says.

    -Fred

    Successful BST (me as buyer) with: Collectorcoins, PipestonePete, JasonRiffeRareCoins

  • ambro51ambro51 Posts: 14,046 ✭✭✭✭✭
    ......a lot of what is going to happen is what I wrote about.

    However, I feel that the $1000 Check will ONLY be seen by the fine eatery that HRH, Donny and the Crew will be going to tonight, for a good laugh, Lobster tail, and some fine wine.

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