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Do statements regarding "lowest mintage" of current issues mean anything?
SanctionII
Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭✭
I just read a Numismatic News article that states that the Denver Guam Quarter is the scarcest for 2009. It has a mintage of 42.6 million pieces.
While "lowest mintage" may literally be accurate, does this term having any meaning to the hobby?
The term conveys the message "these are RARE (aka valuable) coins, so you should buy some now (at Mint Pricing to collectors or higher) to get in on the ground floor before the value skyrockets". The reality is that these coins are available in mass quantity.
While "lowest mintage" may literally be accurate, does this term having any meaning to the hobby?
The term conveys the message "these are RARE (aka valuable) coins, so you should buy some now (at Mint Pricing to collectors or higher) to get in on the ground floor before the value skyrockets". The reality is that these coins are available in mass quantity.
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K
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
Edited to ad: No, nothing modern with the title 'Lowest mitage' means anything to me really. JMO
<< <i>No, "low mintage" and "modern" are mutually exclusive to me. >>
You know not of what you speak.
Rarity is relative.
<< <i>You know not of what you speak. >>
Sigh. Thank you Yoda. Yes, some moderns have very low mintages...but they're artificially made. The mint makes many issues specifically for collectors. They're never meant for circulation, the majority of the original mintage not only exists, but exists in very high grades. I don't care if the mintage of a coin is a 1000, if they're all in Gem shape they don't interest me. And, as I said in my original post, moderns and low mintage are mutually exclusive to me. If you or other people wanna sink your money into them, knock yourself out, but don't tell me that "I know not of what I speak" when I'm stating my opinion.
My serious opinion: Not anymore, certainly not for circulation coins. If anything it reduces the value because lots of people will react just the way I wrote above, and hoard the low-mintage coins. The reason 1909-S IHCs aren't worth more than 1877s is because the 09-S were hoarded (as the last issue, and low mintage with the new Lincoln coming out the same year).
My 2c.
<< <i>IMO No...not at all. There are way too many and too many are being horded in MS condition for it to ever mean anything significant.
K >>
If you really want the lowest mintage wait for the last of the US territory quarters to be issued.But again does anyone consider a coin issued close to 50 million to be rare or scarce??I sure dont.This is another case of the 2009 coins whipping up a buying frenzy with some clever marketing from the us mint.Look at the craziness surrounding the lincoln cents-a coin issued in the 600 millions but scarce except for HSN,or the prices for 2009 dimes and nickels ..one issued at about 90 million and the other about160 million or close to it.Each of which selling on e-bay at insane multiples.This year(2009) may come to be known as the year of the hype coin wise IMHO
<< <i>IMO No...not at all. There are way too many and too many are being horded in MS condition for it to ever mean anything significant.
>>
The things the HSN guys ignored is that if 150 million people ever collected the state quarters..... (and Guam isn't a state) Millions of collectors lost interest already and out of the however many remaining many don't care if they save a P or a D or did not continue with them beyond the states or would not pay any premium for anything they don't find in change. 42.6 million with a lot of hoarding is more than enough to fill demand forever.
Compare it to the 55-S cent with only 44.6 million minted and many hoarded in rolls and the lowest mintage in many years of Lincolns (and the last S mint until 68) which are one of the most collected coins. And you can still get a nice unc 55-S for a quarter or 50 cents.
After all, 42 million is a boatload of coins. (I wouldn't be surprised if there's a coin geek out there somewhere who could tell us just how big of a boat it would take to cary 42 million quarters).
U.S. Type Set
<< <i>
While "lowest mintage" may literally be accurate, does this term having any meaning to the hobby?
>>
Yes. It means a great deal.
It means millions of collectors were set aside as many of these as they can get. Considering
the vast weight of 46 million quarters it means sore backs and laden safety deposit boxes for
many years if they are able to get most of them.
Most carce moderns are high mintage coins that everyone simply ignored. Even the rarities
often have fairly significant mintages.
I've pointedthis out many times but look at the 1982 dime. They made hundreds of millions
of these in Philadelphia with a "P" mintmark and about 10,000 were made with no mint mark.
Today a very high grade coin with the mintmark can be worth more. Indeed, if there's ever
much demand for clad sets it won't include the NMM (no-P) in most cases so the you'll likely
see a run of the mill gem '82-P dime bring more than a typical high grade '82-NMM.
Of course it's possible tha the Guam quarters are all horribly made and nice choice specimens
will command large premiums in the long run. My money is on these being a flash in the pan;
a long drawn out flash because it might take many months for these to all get set aside by
collectors. The price will crumble when it's realized that they are common.
<< <i>No, "low mintage" and "modern" are mutually exclusive to me. >>
Obviously you aren't paying attention then.
There are lots of varieties and vatious moderns that are low mintage. There
are far more that are high mintage but not readily available because they
weren't saved.
<< <i>Obviously you aren't paying attention then. >>
Well, that, I'll give you. I couldn't care less about the latest garbage the mint is churning out.
<< <i>Hey I heard on HSN there are 150 million collectors of state quarters.....so that means 2 out of 3 will never NEVER own one of those coins.
Rarity is relative. >>
Excellent point.
But I doubt the demand will be enough to keep the price up once they are
all out in the system and collectors snap them up. I doubt the demand will
exceed 46 million.
This does lead to an interesting thought. Millions of newbies who are barely
acquainted with the mainstream hobby because the bought their folders at the
bookstore will suddenly have an interest in tracking down a place to find the
coins over the next couple years. This means increased lurking at the coin
sites and visiting retail sites on the net to obtain the coins. We might see a
lot of new faces in the coin shops and elsewhere.
I hope we can all put on a happy face.
...Well... ...seriously then... ...at least we shouldn't scowl and run them off.
<< <i>
Sigh. Thank you Yoda. Yes, some moderns have very low mintages...but they're artificially made. The mint makes many issues specifically for collectors. They're never meant for circulation, the majority of the original mintage not only exists, but exists in very high grades. I don't care if the mintage of a coin is a 1000, if they're all in Gem shape they don't interest me. And, as I said in my original post, moderns and low mintage are mutually exclusive to me. If you or other people wanna sink your money into them, knock yourself out, but don't tell me that "I know not of what I speak" when I'm stating my opinion. >>
I really should read more and post less.
I almost understand the perspective that low mintages are "artificially" made now.
In 1934 the mint adopted a policy of artificially NOT making low mintages because
they were insulted by an offr by a California businessman to purchase the entire
mintage of '31-S cents.
So now they just don't make any coins if they aren't needed and ship them to fill
in the difference. This applies only to business strikes though.
There's more to coins then just what the mint tries to make. They also make some
coins inadvertently, accidently or, as in the case of the WI 25c's; accidently on pur-
pose. Even high mintage coins like a type "b" reverse 1971-D quarter can be virtu-
ally impossible to locate in any grade. About the only way to find one is to look at
lots of pocket change. If you want an unc then the best bet is just keep dreaming.
Alternatively you can look through a couple hundred rolls of '71-D quarters. There's
a little catch with looking through the quarters; you can't find any rolls because peo-
ple didn't see any reason to save clad junk.
There are many other moderns that are scarce because they were either made in
small numbers or they weren't saved. In some cases it's not so much that they aren't
available just that they aren't available in attractive condition. When was the last time
you swa a "distressingly common" coin like a nice gemmy '84-D cent with nice surfaces?
Millions of these were saved but they weren't very well made. You can look through
rolls for them since people saved them but each roll costs about $20 now days. That's
no big deal since there won't be a nice one in most rolls anyway. You can find a few
in mint sets.
An opinion is "moderns suck" an I understand and respect it. It's not my opinion but
people who have the opinion came by it honestly in most cases; especially older collec-
tors. But "moderns are common" is not an opinion so much as a misstatement of fact.
<< <i>
Well, that, I'll give you. I couldn't care less about the latest garbage the mint is churning out. >>
Funny. I haven't cared about the newest releases since 1965.
Some of them I like after they're three or four years old though.
IMO, they do mean something, this is a big country, with 300,000,000+ people, 44M quarters gets spread out quite thin at that level. the 1965 quarter has a mintage of 1.8 B, the 67 is 1.5B, 95-P and D are 1B and 1.1B.
Lowest mintage in this case still means about 250 tons of quarters.
Enough to fill three railroad cars.
In comparison, a 'low mintage' half eagle from the late 1800s...total yearly mintage of half eagles would easily fit inside of a single shoebox.
At least for the next century, you'll have to look to double-die coins to find rarity in the modern issues.
Consider for a second how much 1.2 trillion dollars (this year's budget deficit) would be if minted in the form of presidential dollars. Or even heavier...kennedy halves!
They do not mine that much copper in a year.
<< <i>The relative scale boggles my mind:
Lowest mintage in this case still means about 250 tons of quarters.
Enough to fill three railroad cars. >>
It's all a matter of scale. The collectors of these coins weigh 11,250,000 tons or
enough to fill 160,000 railroad cars most uncomfortably. This is nearly twice the
weight of the Great pyramid. A string of passenger cars with all these collectors
would stretch all the way around the planet with a good piece left over. If you
laid it out right the train wouldn't even have to move to be at most peoples' des-
tination.
250 tons is about the weight of the surviving 1968-D quarters. Of course these
are pretty worn now days.
<< <i>
At least for the next century, you'll have to look to double-die coins to find rarity in the modern issues. >>
No. There are also many other varieties like many quarters with the wrong or dif-
ferent reverses. There are too many varieties to list but there are also those issues
that simply weren't saved. I'd wager there are few enough really gem '82-P quar-
ters I could easily hold them in one hand. There are few enough just nice decent
ones that one man could carry them.
Then there are low mintage special issues and many other coins of interest. Explain
how a high mintage aluminum East German coin that circulated widely could be worth
a thousand dollars and then you'll see just some of the attraction of moderms.
What it all comes down to is that many people get nostalgic for the coins they remem-
ber using as a child. They want to have one and everyone neglected to save the base
metal coins made in huge numbers. In the case of the E German coins they were melt-
ed after eunification and people were ecstatic to get their marks redeemed on a one to
one basis. Of course the aluminum coins were greatly reduced by attrition and wear al-
ready. This isn't so very dissimilar to the '68-D quarter but these are still circulating.
<< <i>
<< <i>
At least for the next century, you'll have to look to double-die coins to find rarity in the modern issues. >>
No. There are also many other varieties like many quarters with the wrong or dif-
ferent reverses. There are too many varieties to list but there are also those issues
that simply weren't saved. I'd wager there are few enough really gem '82-P quar-
ters I could easily hold them in one hand. There are few enough just nice decent
ones that one man could carry them.
Then there are low mintage special issues and many other coins of interest. Explain
how a high mintage aluminum East German coin that circulated widely could be worth
a thousand dollars and then you'll see just some of the attraction of moderms.
What it all comes down to is that many people get nostalgic for the coins they remem-
ber using as a child. They want to have one and everyone neglected to save the base
metal coins made in huge numbers. In the case of the E German coins they were melt-
ed after eunification and people were ecstatic to get their marks redeemed on a one to
one basis. Of course the aluminum coins were greatly reduced by attrition and wear al-
ready. This isn't so very dissimilar to the '68-D quarter but these are still circulating. >>
>>
Thanks for using the right amount of words to convey your meaning. I think we are on the same page. In order to find rarity in the modern world, you need to go looking for it (as in rare die pairings, historic events, 1982, specific issues). I like to think of 'rarity' in terms of 'difficult to obtain' and 'scarce'. Unfortunately, in the coin world, the word 'rare' is bandied about and loses meaning for me.
You always seem to compose your posts very well; thanks!
The OP was talking about a 'low mintage' of tens of millions, and this absent of any other factor reducing the population.
What does the statement 'lowest mintage' mean in this case? Just advertising puffery I think. Nothing to get uptight about.
Yep that he does.
Steve
<< <i>If you or other people wanna sink your money into them, knock yourself out, but don't tell me that "I know not of what I speak" when I'm stating my opinion. >>
I will tell you" you know not what you speak" when you are DEAD WRONG....opinion or not bucko.
Hoard the keys.