When dealing with Numismatic Truths, should a dealer take credit when the market acts like it is des

Longacre

I was reading a blog by a well-known dealer. In the blog, he offered to title it, "It's my blog, and I will brag if I want to". The blog outlined how this dealer predicted correctly that early quarter eagles would be on fire, and how he suggested to make buys years ago. I like this dealer, and he is obviously an expert in the market.

Then I read a response from a very prominent board member here, related to the thread about the blog. This board member stated,

"The smaller sized coins seem to lag their more popular bigger siblings. Same thing could be said for seated half dimes and dimes compared to seated quarters and halves. They eventually catch up but the bigger coin, even if not quite as rare, commands more attention all things being equal. Hence no surprise that $10 early bust gold has paved the path for the smaller denominations."


Like some things in life, there are things called Numismatic Truths, which are basic facts that cannot be disputed, and which are almost certain to occur. In real life, we know that two objects of different weights will fall from a tree at the same rate of speed. Similarly, like the board member says, the Numismatic Truth that smaller coins are less popular than bigger coins, and they lag the market of their big brothers, only to eventually catch up in the marketplace.

Should a dealer take credit in a prediction of what amounts to a Numismatic Truth, when the market is simply acting like it is destined to?

RYK

I do not believe that the small coins ever really catch up with the larger ones (for the design), so I dispute the Numismatic Truth, as stated.

curly

WOW!!! Somma you brothers are some deep thinkers. I have a hard time keepin' up.

RWB

Most thinly capitalized markets have mid- and long-term cycles, as well as internal interrelationships. “Predictions” that simply restate these relationships can be helpful, since few know or understand them. However, useful predictions are ones that defy the ordinary or present extraordinary insights leading to specific events. (For example, if one predicts “…that high quality classic commemoratives will significantly increase in price over the next years...” it simply repeats past cycles of interest and states the obvious. On the other hand, if one predicts “…that 1933-D Oregon Trail commemorative halves in MS 65 condition will triple in Gray Sheet bid value within the next year…” a specific result is specified which is contrary to general market cycles and testable in a year’s time.)

PS: Who is “Numismatic Truth” and why is his hand on my wallet?

jfoot13

as in most everything in life
everybody wants the credit
nobody wants the blame

gyocomgd

Longacre, I'd very much like to see a list of these "Numismatic Truths." Surely this isn't the only one...

roadrunner

Small-coin-itis is a numismatic truth of sorts. And I'd probably have to agree that they never quite get the attention and price they deserve....at least over the past 20 years. But they do tend to come on later in the coin cycles. I heard whispers about small coinitis back in 1988-1990 when I owned a lot more half dimes and 3c silvers. But I learned my lesson and moved on to bigger coins starting in 2001.

As far as items lagging the market, I was waving the flag on gem 19th century type coins from 2002-2006 and finally got tired of waving the flag against the constant pounding of REGISTRY set mania. Well, cooler heads prevailed in 2007-2008 and nice type is now a leader instead of a laggard. Took long enough.

roadrunner

ColonialCoinUnion

<< <i>I do not believe that the small coins ever really catch up with the larger ones (for the design), so I dispute the Numismatic Truth, as stated. >>



Me too.

cladking

Of course the big coin and small coin have about the same acceleration when dropped from a tree. Their speed varies over time. If the big one hits you on the head it will feel like it got to terminal velocity and if it had then its speed wouldn't vary much over time and would be a great deal different than the little coin, probably. Even on a coin board physical laws must be obeyed.



<< <i>I do not believe that the small coins ever really catch up with the larger ones (for the design), so I dispute the Numismatic Truth, as stated. >>



There tends to be more demand for larger coins but frequently the
supply is smaller. Smaller coins tend to be smaller denominations
and people can (and do) afford to set more aside.

ColonialCoinUnion

<< <i>There tends to be more demand for larger coins but frequently the
supply is smaller. Smaller coins tend to be smaller denominations
and people can (and do) afford to set more aside. >>



In colonials it tends to be just about exactly the opposite of that, with the smaller denominations in almost every series rarer than the larger ones.

RedTiger

Only if they also tell us when their predictions are wrong. Some pundits will brag about their "accurate" predictions, when all they are doing is flipping coins and saying heads half the time, tails the other half and reporting the "correct" calls. Some others are always saying the same thing all the time, so that isn't a prediction, it is more like promotion or hype.

bidask

A dealer should always take credit for recommending something that hasn't taken place yet but which comes to past in the future.

bidask

Here's a small coin: ICG 65 1883/72 MoM Peso 1000 mintage, south of our border, gold and a classic.

I paid $300 for it at Goldberg's auction recently. Still can't believe it.

lcoopie

I am sure he would like us all to know who he is

and

what is he predicting now



It's great to be able to predict the future

Manorcourtman

This reminds of statements of people who are always bagging about winning at scratch-off lottery tickets. They never, however, tell you how many times they lose and how much they spent!

lcoopie

I find more comfort dealing with someone who says
that he doesn't know where the market is going

that seems more truthful to me