Options
Was the Reiver sale the top of the Market?
GOLDSAINT
Posts: 2,148 ✭
Gathering information from several sources it looks to us that the Reiver sale was the top of the market at least for awhile.
One expert feels that we will see a significant slow down in the overall market in 2006.
He also sees some consolidation among large dealers as profits slid. In addition he thinks that the large coin buyers that buy $100,000 to one million in coins per year are ready for a break, and have had their ego’s satisfied for now.
It appears that the over all U.S. economy may slow down significantly this year as more high paying U.S. jobs are moved over seas, and all of the investment markets settle into a stagnant trading rage.
The Reiver sale was a great collector sale, but it is my opinion that other sales of this type will not do as well, should they come to market.
My point here is that we might not see coin prices drop significantly from here, but the upward price movement looks like it is getting very soft.
By no later than summer many dealers should begin to feel the softness in the overall market, and begin to unload some inventory.
I also think we have seen the end of a time when new collectors will enter the market and try to build very large sets of coins i.e. Bust Half dollars for example. In order to accomplish what some of the collectors did that have recently sold, a new collector would not only have to commit decades to their search, but be multi-millionaires to build reasonably graded sets. Others here please comment on your different collecting areas.
Please add your 2 cents worth!
0
Comments
recent Long Beach show was on the lighter side and a fair amount
of empty dealer tables. The market could be slowing down for
awhile.
The Revier sale might be similar to Garrett in late Mar.
1980 when prices went crazy and then a market slowdown.
I would expect however we will not see anything like a "black
friday" that happened a few weeks after Garrett.
The lack of alternative investments will still keep interest up in conservatively graded, problem-free coins. Unfortunately, there aren't many conservatively graded, problem-free coins on the market right now. The "good stuff" has gone into hiding.
The stock market has been going nowhere for five years. How much longer are shareholders going to tolerate the non-performers that now seem to control corporate America?
Also remember that this is an election year...
Some series look cheap compared to others. I compared some of the DCam Franklins to DCam Morgans or Barbers. The older coins are sometimes cheaper. (Or maybe the Franklins are too high - don't know).
High quality coins are going at premiums to recent history and will continue to find new homes. Collectors are becoming more savvy, so lower quality stuff may lose.
Crackouts leading to upgrades may well be slowing, so there are fewer rips. So, the market changes from dealer-focused to collector-focused. Not bad if you are a collector. Actually puts a foundation on the hobby.
I do see a lot of consolidation and reexamination of personal collections. The auction houses are encouraging complete collections to be sold at one go. This market is absorbing huge hits of cash flow.
Will the market ever go down? I assume so, but I don't see the trend to lower prices yet for quality coins.
Alternative views welcome....
Badger
Link to 1950 - 1964 Proof Registry Set
1938 - 1964 Proof Jeffersons w/ Varieties
<< <i>By no later than summer many dealers should begin to feel the softness in the overall market, and begin to unload some inventory. >>
I don't know how they can unload inventory when they don't have any. All we here from the show reports is how people can't find coins or the lack of coins at shows???
About the only thing that I would agree with is, that current levels are starting to price some collectors out of the market. Or pricing them out of collecting some of the better dates.
<< <i>About the only thing that I would agree with is, that current levels are starting to price some collectors out of the market. Or pricing them out of collecting some of the better dates. >>
One has to wonder if long-neglected and long-ignored coin series will continue to gain popularity, as their low-demand status tends to keep even the scarce dates affordable and eliminates the "stoppers" that keep many collectors from starting a more popular series.
If the 1893-S Morgan were a three cent nickel with its current level of availability, it would be a pretty cheap coin.
Tbig
I know they aren't going away in the gold arena. If anything it's growing. Demand for gold (proof gold, rare type gold, early gold, and generic 64-66 gold) is growing. Gold should finish out 2006 stronger than 2005. And 2007 the same thing. Until gold is finished, I do not see the coin market faultering. The FED is gonna pump in much more liquidity starting in March. The Chinese and other countries are doing the same. The Chinese grew M3 at around 18% last year. They beat our 8-9% quite soundly.
The Reiver sale was not a speculator's or investor's sale and had no real bearing as a "top" for those buyers.
As mentioned by TDN, all the quality coins are still locked up in strong hands. I have some and I'm not selling at these levels.
What will suffer is the low end quality material that continues to linger and gets recycled from one auction to the next.
The drivers in the current market:
specs/investors
registry participants
collectors in general
dealers
The specs and dealers will be the driving force as gold continues upward. Collectors have little say or influence in that stage of the market.
roadrunner
“Dealers cannot replace inventory at current price levels.”
So much material has been put away the last four years this is certainly true, but I am not sure collectors will just continue to pay more and more for the few examples that come out.
“I believe the Reiver sale, for the most part, should be left in a category by itself.”
This is of course true, and as Nysoto said below, many collectors were out bid due to high prices at Reiver, but does that mean they have made a mental shift to now pay more?
“The Revier sale might be similar to Garrett in late Mar.
1980 when prices went crazy and then a market slowdown.
I would expect however we will not see anything like a "Black Friday"
I do not see that either although I do see some additional coins coming in the market at high prices, that will be lowered as interest wanes in current pricing.
“The key will be to watch liquidity rather than price guides.”
I think this will be very important, and don’t expect price drops, but many great coins are just staying on the market longer due to the current prices. I think many dealers are going to get locked into their inventories of better material here.
“I haven't witnessed any of the bearish statements mentioned in your thread.”
Personal I am not a bear in the regular sense of the word, I just think the market is going to stagnate in place for at least the rest of the year.
“Dealers have a lot of junk as inventory these days.”
As the “better coin market” slows down I believe you will see the dealers unload lots of junk at much lower prices as they need cash flow.
humurous. I think he had two half eagles, very common dates
in AU58. I stopped looking at that point, so RoadRunner is darn
right about gold bugs not even caring who Reiver was. That is
a big spending category right now driving demand to new highs.
good thread. i would add more, but a fool likes to keep his mouth
shut
<< <i>Dealers cannot replace inventory at current price levels. Quality coins are selling extremely fast. The services have tightened grading. Prices are going to go up still as quality coins are moved from the 'resubmit' box to the 'for sale' box. >>
- Marcus Tullius Cicero, 106-43 BC
...am not sure collectors will just continue to pay more and more for the few examples that come out.
No, collectors won't pay that. But specs will and will continue to do so until the market tops. The specs hang in there far longer than the collectors. In the 1980 blowoff, as a pure collector, I had stopped buying material in mid to late 1979. It was just too expensive and the value wasn't there. It took at least another 6-9 months to finally blow it off.
There is no spec flurry or mania that I can see at this point. Not even close to it. If the consumer trys to stop spending the FED will come to the rescue to put more easy credit into his hands. If that doesn't work, they'll devise other schemes to give him the credit.
When all the schemes are completed and interest rates peak out in the double digits somewhere...then the Fat Lady will be singing.
roadrunner
<< <i>I don't know how they can unload inventory when they don't have any. All we here from the show reports is how people can't find coins or the lack of coins at shows??? >>
I don't pay any attention to that comment in show reports. If you do then it would have to follow that they haven't had any inventory for over thirty years. I don't believe I have ever read a show report that didn't say that there was no fresh material available, that it was very difficult to find anything nice, that quality material just wasn't available stc.
not even close.................................................................
In my opinion, the coin auctions have taken a major chunk out of the coin dealer's pockets. Internet accessed coin auctions have become "the coin market", while dealer's are losing out.
<< <i>Many unsuccessful bidders at the Reiver sale still have a lot of cash to spend in their area of interest. >>
That's kind of scary.
After spending a day at Long Beach looking at Barber Halves - a series that has been flat for a good five years plus - it is apparent that even for a series like this, I still have to pay very strong money to get anything worth having in my collection. Unless you get your coin from a private party, you're going to pay over greysheet ask. If you don't, you're going to get a mediocre to ugly, or worse, a problem coin.
The level of ugliness of the average MS 65 Barber Half I see never ceases to amaze me. These coins make the Eunice Shriver image on her ill-conceived coin look like a hot babe.
The last two paragraphs only deal with a coin series that is not popular. For a popular series, forget it. My 36 S Walker in a PC 6 holder Bluesheets for $1,500. It was something like $1,100 last year.
I don't know where the top of the market may be, but more and more of us are getting priced out of the current one. Most coins I saw last Thursday IMO either cost a fortune, or aren't worth buying.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
As we go through our day-to-day work, and spending time on our hobby, it may be that we just lose touch with what prices are actually doing.
Several here have made comments about the Reiver sale being a “specialists sale”
Sure that is true, but this sale being so inclusive gives us a chance to see a complete set of dates sell, all at once, as well. So lets assume you are a well-healed American that wants to begin collecting a date set of Bust Half dollars. You would like just a nice date set in grades around XF to AU. You start at the earliest date and throw in an 185/4 to have something in the 04 slot, and go for the first 11 coins. In addition you will even take some DAMAGED coins in the harder dates. You are not going to buy anything fancy in MS 60 to 65, and no R6, R7 or R8 coins.
You get out the old checkbook and start writing checks, which come to $246,156. If you had that kind of cash you are most certain to be in a 30% tax bracket, so to pay for these coins, you had to earn about $ 320,000.
Here are the coins you bought!
Will you have a complete Early Bust Half Registry set? NO!
Will you ever be able to break even on this purchase if you sell? Who knows!
Were prices like this on date sets in other coin categories? You tell me!
1794 50C O-101, High R.3. AU55 NGC
Sold for: $69,000.00
1795 50C 2 Leaves. O-104, R.4. XF45 NGC
Sold for: $10,350.00
1796 50C 15 Stars R5--Environmental Damage--NCS. VF Details
Sold for: $63,250.00
1797 50C --Obverse Graffiti R4--NCS. XF Details.
Sold for: $69,000.00
1801 50C O-101, R.3--Bent--NCS. XF Details.
Sold for: $6,037.50
1802 50C O-101, R.3. AU55 NGC.
Sold for: $14,950.00
1803 50C Large 3. O-103, R.3. XF45 NGC.
Sold for: $1,840.00
1805/4 50C O-101, R.3. AU50 NGC.
Sold for: $4,887.50
1805 50C O-112, R.2. XF45 NGC.
Sold for: $1,840.00
1806 50C Pointed 6, No Stem O-109, R.1. AU 53
Sold for: $3,737.50
1807 50C Draped Bust. O-110a, R.3. NGC XF 45
Sold for: $1,265.00
Thank you
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
Great thread!
An interesting related datum: I was in a local dealer's shop recently. He had a key date merc dime, RAW, in a 2x2 in his case, marked "$2500"
Seems like just a few years ago that I'd never see a raw U.S. coin that high in a shop case.
What's going on....
One has to wonder if long-neglected and long-ignored coin series will continue to gain popularity, as their low-demand status tends to keep even the scarce dates affordable and eliminates the "stoppers" that keep many collectors from starting a more popular series.
If the 1893-S Morgan were a three cent nickel with its current level of availability, it would be a pretty cheap coin.
***********************
How many collectors switch over to a series that they really have no interest in just cuz the coins available are low demand or cheap? I would probly give up the hobby rather than do that. There are no stoppers in the Morgan series, maybe some pausers but no stoppers unless cost is more of a stopper than availability is.
If you plan to buy and sell in a series there is not much sense in trying to sell into a series where demand is low.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
As you can see none of these coins are DAMAGED, and several are PCGS graded.
All would fall in our previous collectors set of XF to AU coins and the total cost would have been about $120,500 and you would have to have earned $156,650 if you were in a 30% tax bracket.
Also as you can see the prices have already doubled in this Bull Run.
So is the market at the top? Will we continue to see the coins that sold for $246,156 at Reiver double again in price the next five years to $492,312? I DON”T THINK SO!
Could we get Helicopter money from Ben? Perhaps, but certainly after that the crash is eminent.
Are the other date sets in other coin series going up at this rate? You tell me!
Were there lots of “DOGS” in the Reiver sale that brought high prices? Maybe, but is that not what happens at the top?
1794 50C XF40 NGC. July 2003
Sold for: $14,375.00
1795 50C XF40 NGC. O-119, Feb 2202
Sold for: $4,830.00
1796 50C 15 Stars VF35 PCGS. Jan 2003
Sold for: $43,700.00
1797 50C XF45 PCGS. Aug 2001
Sold for: $42,550.00
1801 50C XF40 Oct. 2001
Sold for: $1,667.50
1802 50C AU50 PCGS. Ex: Pryor. Aug 2001
Sold for: $7,072.50
1803 50C Large 3 XF40 PCGS. Jan 2002
Sold for: $603.75
1805/4 50C XF45 NGC. Sept 2003
Sold for: $1,840.00
1805 50C XF45 PCGS. O-106, R.3. April 2002
Sold for: $1,265.00
1806 50C Pointed 6, No Stem AU55 PCGS. Jan 2002
Sold for: $2,070.00
1807 50C Draped Bust XF40 PCGS.Feb. 2002
Sold for: $529.00
Market report from Laura:
02-15-2005
“Dealers (including ourselves) are burnt out by the time the regular show begins.
Dealer retreads or over-graded coins did not sell well. This time.
we counted six MAJOR players who didn't even bother to attend.
Years ago everyone who is anyone wouldn't miss the show.
We ourselves are seriously considering NOT taking tables anymore.
Attendance was good-but it still wasn't what it used to be.
Our best day retail wise was Friday. Thursday and Saturday seemed very minimal.
Its almost like a broken record here. MS and PR Barbers and Seated just don't have throngs of buyers.
Also, Commems, which are eagerly being bought up by the large telemarketers just don't seem to have any kick beyond them.
For a few months now, BOTH PCGS and NGC have been as strict as strict can be. Not only are dealers getting down grades by the bunch, but they are getting body bags by the dozens.”
Looks to me like PCGS and NGC see what is coming, and don’t want to buy coins that are over graded if the market drops?
“Yes, big slowdown coming. Therefore would you PLEASE send me all your CC twenties, early half eagles, early and better quarter eagles, bust dollars, better date St G's, 3.00 gold, better world gold, patterns for rocket fast offers and checks??”
Tom,
Hey Buddy, you are paying heritage current, and recent auction prices right?
<< <i>Looks to me like PCGS and NGC see what is coming, and don’t want to buy coins that are over graded if the market drops? >>
Why not? Why would they want to buy them back at current high prices? If the market tanks they can get them a lot cheaper.
MY COINS FOR SALE AT https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/other/bajjerfans-coins-sale/3876
BAJJERFAN
That is a good point, on the other hand many dealers, as well as collectors don’t mind a little over grading as long as the market is real HOT. Perhaps that is why so many coins are craked out multiple times.
If the market stagnates or drops, one way to get out of an over-graded coin is to have PCGS or NGC buy it.
Yes PCGS and NGC might be paying higher prices to buy back now, but can still move the coins even in lower grades with small losses, but if the market stagnates, perhaps the coins cannot be sold even at lower prices. I don’t believe they want to hold inventory.
All things considered I am not sure a TPG takes that big of a loss when paying the owner of a coin a down grade fee, or buy back fee, as long as they don’t end up holding coins long term. If the market is a hot one, and they can resell the lower grade at full retail with a small dealer fee, as well as take a tax write off, they may have a very small loss, as long as the coin is not a real rarity.
Nice coins were flying out of the dealers cases, especially those slabbed by PCGS and NGC and at retail prices. This probably doesn't register much with high end collectors here, but as these buyers get a taste of quality I think it will bring more of them into the market for quality rather than quantity. It wasn't unusual to see 5 buyers at a table waiting to purchase. Maybe its the one day concept but the past 2 shows were triple the normal attendance of two years ago.
There were dealers from Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan (show was in Indiana). There were of course still collectors there buying to fill albums regardless of quality.
Is the market topped out? I doubt it....strictly original, problem free coins will remain in demand by astute collectors. I'm seeing additional collectors enter the market for seated dimes at both circ and mint state levels. This trend will continue as more baby boomers see numismatics as a worth while hobby. The availability of reference materials fuels the demand.
Remember that collectors form the true foundation of the hobby. Collectors hold onto the coins for years, not as a speculation instrument, but rather as a passion.... I would much rather own properly graded, original seated dimes with nice eye appeal rather than stocks, which are traded on the greed and fear emotions.
Like Yogi says, the hardest thing to predict is the future.
I'm still looking, buying and enjoying the hobby, for what that's worth.
<< <i>I believe the Reiver sale, for the most part, should be left in a category by itself. It was a specialists' paradise. Specialists wait years, sometimes a lifetime, for an opportunity at some of the rarities that were available. In a specialists' paradise, huge bids are going to come in droves. In no way would I call the Reiver sale a measure of the overall coin market. That insane money had been saved for months or years waiting for the ideal die variety, die marriage, die state, or die remarriage to come along. >>
The Reiver S1 (Ameri.) Chain cent, NGC F-15, sold for $43,125. It was perfect for the grade; the high price realized is representative of your point.
My gut tells me that we topped with the Reiver sale, not because of that sale in particular, it just happened to be at the end of a cycle. Lets just watch as we go through the next few months. As for Bust half material, I do not expect to see another 20% added to better bust halves this year.
Nice coins are bringing strong prices and flying out of inventory.
to get stronger. It is possible for there to be some cycling in and out of dif-
ferent series at the high end of the market but the general trends show no
signs of reversing. Look at the coin advertising in general interest maga-
zies. There are more stories in the papers and growing interest in all things
related to coins.
This bull market is getting long in the tooth but it can get much longer.
<< <i>Or will the Reiver sale, along with updated and new reference books, spark additional interest in early US coins? Many unsuccessful bidders at the Reiver sale still have a lot of cash to spend in their area of interest. >>
You make a good point about the Reiver sale. Since when has there been a collection auctioning every variation on a theme (like the different overton numbers). It's actually the Reiver sale that catapulted me back into colleting coins after a long sabattical. I bought 3 coins. Now I look back at that auction and I cannot believe what I could have accomplished building a set if I had so decided to do so before hand. I continuously use the auction archives Heritage has, for that auction, to research the different Overton numbers for different coins. It's amazing. So, yes, I think that sale, which sparked my interest, may very well have sparked the interest in other collectors.
Sincerely
Michael
Jerry
Where it is always a possibility that I may again be wrong for the third time in my life. The top of the market does not mean that the day after the Reiver sale that all coins, in all classes, will head strait down in price from that day.
What it does mean is that as we move into the summer months more and more inventory will come into the market, and much of this will be priced better than the previous several prior months. What it may also mean is that as summer progresses we might see many dealers begin to unload lots of the common material at better prices to pay overhead.
In addition it does not mean that rare coins from various series will hit the market at GREAT prices. Huge amounts of better material has been put away, and is not for sale now, regardless whether the market moves up or down.
As an example here is a trend to watch. In the bust half area on Ebay the more common coins that are listed there generally have amounted to between 400 and 600 listings per day for many months, unless there was a large auction going off.
At the present time there is not a large amount of listings from auction houses listed yet today’s listings come to 1118, over double the amount of normal listings. In addition many of the more common bust halves go unsold and are put into stores adding to the listings.
Perhaps this means nothing, but if by summer the listings increase to 1,500 per day, without large auction listings, then we have a trend.
roadrunner
Buying top quality Seated Dimes in Gem BU and Proof.
Buying great coins - monster eye appeal only.
<< <i>I think we are close to or at a market top. Nothing to do with any particular auction or sale. I think value to the end consumer (collector) has been sucked dry with the crackout and doctoring that was so pervasive the last few years. Does the backbone of this hobby (traditional collectors) want coins that are 2 points overgraded and/or processed. I doubt it. Just because dealers or TPG's claim those coins to be "market acceptable", it doesn't mean knowledgeable collectors are going to line up and buy them. A good portion of the hobbies run this last few years was driven by the crackout game and the services creating instant value for submitters. Unfortunately, there is a pending down side to all of that which has not yet reared its ugly head. >>
Hard to say. I think the crackout game, registry sets and Internet Bidding Fever have all combined to overheat the coin market. At some point it will end, and the longer it takes to end, the uglier it will probably end ultimately.
So what? Knowledgable collectors represent less than 10% of the market and less than 1% of the new buyers. It's the newbies, bozos and wannabes that really fuel the bull market. And they'll buy almost anything.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>Just because dealers or TPG's claim those coins to be "market acceptable", it doesn't mean knowledgeable collectors are going to line up and buy them.
So what? Knowledgable collectors represent less than 10% of the market and less than 1% of the new buyers. It's the newbies, bozos and wannabes that really fuel the bull market. And they'll buy almost anything. >>
Amen, Andy !
The market is wierd and that's all I'm gonna say !
Knowledgable collectors represent less than 10% of the market and less than 1% of the new buyers. It's the newbies, bozos and wannabes that really fuel the bull market. And they'll buy almost anything. -- MrEureka
<< <i>Quote of the day:
Knowledgable collectors represent less than 10% of the market and less than 1% of the new buyers. It's the newbies, bozos and wannabes that really fuel the bull market. And they'll buy almost anything. -- MrEureka >>
That is a good one -- signature worthy, actually. Like many speculative frenzies, the trend will continue as long as there are enough people believing in the Greater Fool Theory to keep it going.
But when we run out of greater fools...
Not true. The crackout game has been going on since the TPGs opened their doors, through every bull and bear market. Besides, some would argue that the crackout game has reduced the quality of the product, thereby limiting price advances. But IMHO, in the long run grading has little effect on coin values.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I've seen even the 10% you refer to demonstrate characteristics of a newbie, bozo or wannabe. And as a result, many of the 10% have also fueled the bull market because they too, at times, have bought almost anything.
You'll see them come on these boards and demonstrate their apetite for overpaying, and their grading blunders, and you'll see it at coins shows/auctions as well.
A rising tide lifts all boats, and during a bull market I've witnessed even the most knowledgeable succumb to keeping up with the times -- when in Rome do as the Romans do.