Is there too much emphasis on "key" dates?

Cocoinut

Is there too much emphasis on "key" dates, while other coins worthy of attention are ignored? Consider the Mercury dime series. the 1916-D certainly is the rarest regular issue, in an absolute sense. The other dates are probably more abundant in the higher circulated grades. But what about the other nine Mercs that have a lower population in the combined FB and non-FB grades of MS64 and above? Those dates are the 17-D, 19-S, 20-S, 23-S, 24-S, 25-D, 26-S, 27-D, and 27-S. Are these all drastically underpriced, or is the 16-D overpriced, or maybe a little bit of both? I totaled the bid prices for all 9 of these coins in 4 grades, and compared them to a single 16-D:

MS64 $4,850, 16-D is $12,500
MS64FB $17,750, 16-D is $19,750
MS65 $9775, 16-D is $19,000
MS65FB $58,460, 16-D is $36,000

From an investment standpoint, what makes more sense, owning a MS 16-D or any of the other 9 dates listed? Ten years ago, the 16-D was bid at $11,500 in MS65FB, so it's shown a 213% increase. The other 9 totaled $36,200 in April 1995, and have shown just a 61% increase. The 17-D and 25-D are actually lower than in April 1995, but impressive gains were made by the 19-S (+196%) and the 24-S (+124%)

A similar situation exists with the 1909-S VDB cent. It's the rarest coin when you look at the original mintage, but the coin was hoarded in large quantities. Other than the 1909-P and 1909-P VDB, which were also hoarded, the 1909-S VDB is more common in certified MS65RD than any other Lincoln before 1925, yet it is bid at $5,500! Ten years ago, it was at $1,500.

So my question is: have collectors and investors pushed the prices of popular dates to unrealistic levels, or is it just a matter of time before the other dates are recognized as the rarities they truly are?

Any thoughts?

Jim

TahoeDale

Jim,

The key dates you mentioned have become way too pricey. And the semi-keys of the same series are behind, but advancing.

It is the popularity of the series that has made the keys go up so much in the last decade. The 1919-D Walker, the 26-S Buffalo, and the 32-D Washington quarter have also risen in spite of coins being available.

If we were to go back just one generation of coins, to the Barbers, Liberty and Shield nickels, and 1 more to the Seated Liberty denominations, we will find many dates with total MS examples less than 20, and Gems less than 5. Now that is rarity. But without the demand of 1000's of eager collectors, those series have not prospered.

Experts have been telling us for some time to go the these undervalued series, and we will find great opportunity for increased value. Legends, Pinnacle and others have been advising purchases, and I believe they are correct.

Will the semi-keys of the Lincolns and Mercury dimes catch up? Where rarity exists, probably so. But if the number of collectors seeking the keys grows, as it might, the pricey keys will get even more costly.

yellowjacket

Supply and Demand...you know it's true...Econ 101. If you can predict which series will be popular with the collecting community, you'll know where the prices will advance. The keys to these popular series will always be strong. The semi-keys will follow the advanced prices of their key brothers.
YJ

fantasiize

In my opinion, it is all about the keys ... you can't have enough, you can't go wrong, you (or your family) won't have a problem selling them off.

roadrunner

But without the demand of 1000's of eager collectors, those series have not prospered.

Actually key date gems from the seated series have prospered quite nicely though few have noticed. Pick almost any rare date O, S, or CC mint in circ or choice/gem condition and it has risen considerably in the past 10 years or 30 years. The CC mints have done incredibly well. And compared to 20th century material they are still quite underrated.

Example from coins that I have once owned. I left out the peaks of 1980 as after going up 3-6X in price most of these fell by similar amounts.

1851-0 half dime: MS65 - 1984-$3000, 1989-$5500, 2005-$12,000
(that coin upgraded to 66 over this period)
1866-s quarter MS 66- 1977- $5500, 1986 - $14,000, 1989-$40,000
2005-$50,000+ (probably now a 67)
1867-s quarter XF45- 1975 $130, 1983-$200, 2005-$1500
1867-s quarter MS66 - 1975-$1800, 1977-$5000, 1986-$10,000,
1990-$45,000 , 2004 - $74,500 (now a 67)
1858-0 quarter MS65 - 1983- $4300, 1990-$22,000, 2005-$35,000+
(would likely make MS66 today)
1871-s quarter XF - 1975 - $135, 2005-$1200+
1870-cc half - Fine- 1975- $225, 2005-$1800
1874-cc half - MS63-1988 $15,000, 2005- $40,000 now MS64

If anything the 1995-2005 period has been a true awakening in the rarity of seated material. And this has occurred with a very small collector/dealer base that is interested.

I do agree, that too emphasis has been placed on key dates in most series, esp. the ultra populars like the 77 Indian, 1916 quarter, etc.
I equate those to the same popularity that home prices have enjoyed the last 5 years......one "cannot lose" in these "investments." I suspect that both will become losers in the future. Key dates to my knowledge have never gone down in price over the past 35 years. Housing has gone up and down however.

roadrunner

TahoeDale

Roadrunner,

I agree that some of the seated material has risen substantially in the last 20 years. But over the entire series, in the last 4 years, while many of the non-rare key dates in series minted after 1900 have gone way up, the Seateds have not kept pace.

That is why many are recommending them as undervalued. They will have their day. Too many of the dates have less than 10 coins in MS, anf the No Motto Gems are not only rare but ultra scarce.

The collectors of today that are still buying the pricey keys will eventually move to the earlier series, if they are long-termers. The early dollars have made a nice move since 2001, and so has early gold. Proof gold is still hot. We are talking about more expensive coins, so it will take a strong and knowledgeable collecting community to take the plunge, with confidence that the prices they pay today will hold, and only go up over time.

One caveat: There may not be enough real nice coins for all the dates to interest a registry bound collector. The buyers will need to understand that the series cannot be completed in MS, much less Superb Gem. But there are so many rare dates that will remain rare-the value will always be there.

fcloud

It has always been about the keys. Well, at least I figured that out in about 1979 or 1980. I had to sell off my collection, and found the only coins most dealers wanted were the keys and semi keys. I have put together my set of Mercury dimes, but that is about the only full set I have. Buy the key, buy the semi keys and you won't go wrong.

dunerlaw

I agree the the keys and simi-keys are the best investment.
They hold their value the best in flat markets and go up the quickest in good markets.
They are in higher demand from investors and collectors.
Whom may buy many copies of a key, but fewer of a common date.