What do you think are the most "cyclical" coins, and where are they in the cycle?

kranky

When I think about coins that tend to move up and down in cycles (not counting the influence of precious metal prices), the ones that come to mind are classic commems, MS63 Saints and MS65 Morgans. I understand these can move independently of the overall coin market.

Wondering what coins you think are cyclical and where you think they are in their up/down cycle.

nwcs

Any common popular coins fit in that category. I think they are generally up right now.

kranky

I always thought that the coins I mentioned are the ones that most often go through cycles independent of the overall market. There is enough of them around for people to stockpile them, hype them, then sell off once the prices go up. I wonder if the popularity of the TV shopping shows broke the cycle because of their need for large inventories to sell. After all, it's not worth it to hype a coin if you don't have a big pile of them to profit from once prices go up.

cladking

There are other coins which go through cycles apparently but the cycles may be longer.
Coins such as early Lincolns and indians seem to have long cycles. Walking libs seem to
have a fairly short cyle but it's not as extreme. There's one modern which has been up and
down repeatedly; MS-60 1981 dollars. These coins started out at nearly $5 each and effect-
ively dropped to $1 (bid was higher but buyers were rare). It climbed to about $3 and dropped
again. A few years ago they got up to $6 and have been easing back since.

There high price is based on being a mint set only coin, but this is the highest mintage set.
Gems of all denominations are tough in this set with the S dollar being among the toughest.

Steve27

Key coins like the 1916-D Merc and the 1909-S VDB Lincoln are cyclic, and both have been on the rise for several years now. However, it's not possible to tell where on the cycle they currently are (it's like the stock market in that respect).

greghansen

An interesting question and one for which there would be a 'definative' correct answer. I'm not a math whizz but since price graphs of most types are available along with a 'norm refernced' coin price indicator...someone with some math skills could absolutely determine which series has shown the greatest cyclical deviation above and below the norm line. It would be interesting to know...but I don't really even have a good guess.