THE ULTRA MODERN MARKET - JUST A QUICK LOOK
wondercoin
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PLEASE NOTE: While a very large % of my personal coin buy/sells cover coins dated before 1965, I thought this would be interesting to discuss. INDEED, LAST YEAR I SPENT JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND DOLLARS ON MINT PRODUCT (ALL IN OR AROUND DECEMBER, 2002 WHEN I BROKE DOWN AND BOUGHT SOME STUFF). Nonetheless, the ultra modern coin market (based upon Mint figures) is HUGE:
Look at some numbers on U.S. Mint sales in 2002, on a SMALL segment of their overall sales, as reported in Coin World.
2002 10 Coin Clad sets- 2,216,431 sets.
2002 5 Coin Cald Quarters- 733,084 sets.
2002 Silver Proof sets-871,761 sets.
2002 Proof Silver Eagles-644,314 coins.
2002 Uncirculated Coin Sets-1,081,284 sets.
This segment ONLY. Cash spent by the consumer, ie the public.
In excess of $110,000,000 ( 110 Million Dollars)
This is what the public, ie the consumer, buys.
EVERY YEAR.
If the so called rare coin dealers, the " experts" want to argue DEMAND, so be it.
These are the numbers, in cold, hard cash.
Last year, the Public spent over 100 Million Dollars on these items alone. Next year, the public will likely spend in excess of 100 million Dollars on these items, and the year after that, and after that, and after that.
If some dealers want to ignore the areas that consumers actually Want To Buy, that is there loss. It appears to me that the CONSUMER want these coins like they have never wanted them before!!
I have not even mentioned that more costly gold and platinum Eagles and myriad other products the mint sells dated 2002!!
Wondercoin
Look at some numbers on U.S. Mint sales in 2002, on a SMALL segment of their overall sales, as reported in Coin World.
2002 10 Coin Clad sets- 2,216,431 sets.
2002 5 Coin Cald Quarters- 733,084 sets.
2002 Silver Proof sets-871,761 sets.
2002 Proof Silver Eagles-644,314 coins.
2002 Uncirculated Coin Sets-1,081,284 sets.
This segment ONLY. Cash spent by the consumer, ie the public.
In excess of $110,000,000 ( 110 Million Dollars)
This is what the public, ie the consumer, buys.
EVERY YEAR.
If the so called rare coin dealers, the " experts" want to argue DEMAND, so be it.
These are the numbers, in cold, hard cash.
Last year, the Public spent over 100 Million Dollars on these items alone. Next year, the public will likely spend in excess of 100 million Dollars on these items, and the year after that, and after that, and after that.
If some dealers want to ignore the areas that consumers actually Want To Buy, that is there loss. It appears to me that the CONSUMER want these coins like they have never wanted them before!!
I have not even mentioned that more costly gold and platinum Eagles and myriad other products the mint sells dated 2002!!
Wondercoin Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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I got the last two 2002 Silver sets today. They were on back-order from a couple of weeks ago and are no longer avialable from the mint.
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Wondercoin
<< <i>If the so called rare coin dealers, the " experts" want to argue DEMAND, so be it. >>
I have a problem with 'dealers' who argue what the DEMAND should be in.
I've recommended several modern US Mint items to friends and family over the last 5 years and have a few thinking I'm a wizard
But, in any event, as you know the enormous gold, silver and platinum Eagle markets are relatively new mint product markets (since 1986). Also, you may have noticed how many grandpas and grandmas walk the bourse floors these days - they are assisting with bringing into the market those young grandkids you speak of - the future of numismatics.
Hey - I can raise my nose at these neophyte collectors too, if I wanted to. My personal collections consist of ultra rare 19th century pattern coins, "classic" silver Wash Quarters and other highly prized items (including a nice MS State Quarter collection). On the other hand, I chose to embrace the reality that (according to US Mint figures) roughly 130,000,000 American adults currently collect state quarters - THIS IS VERY GOOD
State quarters drew me into collecting. Since 1999 I've completed my modern commem gold proof set (still working on the Unc set) and have started working my way back through time. I recently purchased my first seated dime and am contemplating a Walking Liberty short set. I simply buy what interests me, for now anyway.
I think there are oodles of others with a similar story. The state quarter program has been a boon to the hobby.
For example, in the 1960's, 1970's and much of the 1980's you had simply a single proof set option and a mint set option -right? You did not have:
1. Clad vs. Silver proof sets to chose from
2. 10 pc. vs. 5 pc. proof sets to chose from
3. Silver Eagle product
4. Gold Eagle product
5. Platinum Eagle product
6. Gold and silver MS and Proof Modern Commems
7. Multitudes of coin rolls, 100 coin, 1000, 2000 coin, etc bags of all kinds of coins being sold FOR WAY OVER FACE VALUE, IN SOME CASES NEARLY 30% OVER FACE FROM THE MINT!!!
Fair point?
demand for these were even a small fraction of the demand for most other
series then many would already be 50- $100. Sure this is already a hot series,
but keep in mind most of the people collecting these are pulling them from cir-
culation for display with their states' sets. They are new and frequently young
collectors who often know nothing or little about the existing hobby. Many deal-
ers tend to ignore this market with their stock. The entire hobby often seems to
treat these newbies like a necessary evil who might one day collect real coins.
If we can retain any of these newbies then there is little doubt that they will
branch into other coins. This is the way things work. One thing seems a virtual
certainty; new collectors are not going to graduate from looking for a VF 68-D
quarter to looking for an unc bust half overnight or without interveneing goals.
A generation from now it seems likely that most of the newbies now will have
either moved on to new collections or to other pursuits. It seems likely that what
the ultra modern market is showing us is that the modern market is now.
How do these numbers now stack up with the surviving numbers of the older sets?
If you look at the mintages of the $2.50 Indian series, you will see that the highest mintage occurred at the Philadelphia mint in 1913. That year the mint issued 722,165 coins. You will note that that number is lower than the mintages for many of the 2002 collector coins that were cited above. From the 1913 quarter eagle mintage you must subtract the number of pieces that have been melted through the years, including the substantial amount that went to the melting pot because of FDR’s gold surrender order. Further reductions can be made for pieces that have holed or soldered for jewelry use. Most collectors do not think that those pieces are collectable.
The substantial amounts that people spent on 2002 coins can be viewed as a source of market strength, but it can also viewed as an Achilles’ heal. A quick check of the mintages in the Red Book will show that past issues of many collectors’ sets have attracted similar sales. But after a period of a decade or more, the market settled in the doldrums for those coins because the supply is more than enough to satisfy current collector demand.
A mintage of a few hundred thousand might seem small, but in the context of the coin market, that does not necessarily translate into sustained high prices. Demand must remain very strong and the number of available pieces has to be reduced considerably by of attrition or large scale recalls and meltings. Even with that on it’s side, the 1913 quarter eagle is not viewed as a scarce item and can still be purchased for a few hundred dollars.
What is worrysome is when someone buys a PCGS Proof 70 something or other and pays an enormous premium with the expectation that someday it will be worth a great deal of money.
i collect the state quarters things because i like them, not because i think they're gonna be an ultra rarity. i think the silver sets are beautiful. i like the FDCs. i really couldn't care less how many they make. the more the better as far as i'm concerned because that'll keep my price down. the coins don't gain or lose lustre based on rarity to me.
when i think that i can either:
a. have my entire modern collection which is very interesting to collect
or
b. have 1 old ag03 slug with features discernable only under magnification
i can definitely relate to the modern collectors. there are also 2 sides to every market if you're going to discuss mintages, supply and demand. sure the supply of an old 2-cent piece may be low - but it doesn't matter if no one wants it. meanwhile people are starting to collect coins in droves because of the SQ program - the moderns are the coins bringing people to the hobby. i doubt anyone started collecting because he suddenly took a liking to an old 3-cent piece.
2 Cam-Slams!
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Bill: I understand exactly your point - interestingly, I find that a great % of the proof state quarters are being broken up to place in albums to sell off to collectors who want to have unslabbed coins (many of these coins will be impaired due to novices touching them and enjoying them). When you consider the fact that 130 million+ adults collect the state quarters and MIGHT want a raw proof coin in their album to fill in the "s" mint slot, coupled with the fact that only 800,000 silver proofs were produced for a few years already, the bottom line is only 1/150 collectors CAN EVEN OWN ONE!! Let alone a slabbed one.
But, Bill, there is even a bigger point I wanted to make. A portion of the Mint product being produced these days is "scarce" from DAY 1. Consider the Proof Platinum and Proof Gold Eagle production figures - Did you know that when the Mint started the Proof Gold program in 1986 that they produced roughly 440,000 1 oz proof coins!!!! By 1997, that figure had dropped to around 27,000-28,000 coins produced FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTRY. Think about that - as Baseball noted, many grandpas and grandmas buy one of this and one of that for their grandkids. THERE WERE ONLY ROUGHLY 27,000 PROOF GOLD 1 OZ EAGLES PRODUCED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTRY IN 1997 AND MANY OF THOSE COINS WERE SCATTERED TO THE WIND, ONE HERE AND ONE THERE!! And, platinum proofs were produced in far lower quantities.
I personally love the area of better date proof gold Eagles and buy some to tuck away for myself whenever I have a few bucks to spare. Sure, I understand that Proof Gold Eagle collecting may never "take off" and no one may ever care that my 2001 dated coins have a mintage of less than roughly 30,000 coins for the entire country (and they might always be worth just "x" dollars over melt). But, then again, one day in the future maybe these neat modern coins might get the respect and recognition I think they deserve. Either way, I sure love these better date PR69DCAM coins at just a tad over common date prices. This is just a SINGLE example of the neat opportunities in "moderns" if you really do enjoy low mintage coins.
I don't discourage people from collecting modern coins. I only caution against paying very high prices for them and against putting them away as an "investment." If you want to invest get into the stock, bond and real estate markets. Coins are for fun.
I think the biggest problem with the modern coin market is that a lot of the potential collectors that you cite might not be around if the prices increase to the levels for which you are hoping. I’ve noted this in the Civil War token market.
Back when I started doing this full time I could buy common variety MS-63, R&B CWTs for $14 or $15. I could get very nice EFs for $8 to $12. I sold many pieces at reasonable markups, and it was a great addition to my business.
Over the last 5 years CWTs have gone up dramatically. Now the EFs cost me $16 to $22 and you can’t touch most Mint State pieces for less than $32 or more. That of course translates into higher selling prices for me, and at the shows my CWT business is way down. Bottom line is that while casual collectors are quite willing to spend $10 for $15 on a token, they bulk at $25 to $40. You have a hard time getting your foot in the door with them so that you can get them going in the series at the higher prices. Frankly I wish that the prices had never gone up. It would have been better for me.
I think you might have the same thing with modern coins as singles. If you could sell a silver Proof state quarter for $8 or $9, grand pa might buy one or two as gifts for the grandkids. But if it goes to $25 or $30, the kid might be getting a toy or sweater instead.
Despite the influx of new collectors from the state quarter program, you still have the price barriers that many new collectors never breach. Most dealers think that the Morgan Dollar is the number collector coin. I’d say it’s still the Lincoln cent. The trouble is most of those Lincoln cent collectors don’t make enough of a ripple in the market to get noticed because of their tiny coin budgets.
2 Cam-Slams!
1 Russ POTD!