TomB's analysis of AT auctions....worth reading.

gsaguy

I copied this from another thread because I think TomB's work deserves a thread of its own....my other one is getting....well....thread-bare.

Here's the text of his post....and you all know who's auctions he's talking about:

Okay, most of you folks know I'm a scientist, right? Well, David stated something that I thought might be testable so I went ahead and did an "experiment". David stated

<< most apparently knew the coin was likely AT, as the bids on almost all of his auctions were at or below "one-off" grade prices (at, or one point less in grade) for UNTONED examples >>

and that is actually an excellent observation, if true. Now, I don't know if it's true and I don't know if it's not true. So, I went back to ebay to look. This is what I did-

1)I looked at all of Mr. Swimmer's closed auctions still on the ebay record, this is 175 auctions.
2)Only those auctions for silver dollars were examined as some were for computer parts and others for other denominations and all the fuss about these coins was over the silver dollars.
3)Relevent information that Mr. Swimmer explicitly wrote, if any, was made note of.
4)If there was still an image it was looked at and made note of.
5)Final selling price was recorded and compared to Greysheet bid prices using the grade stipulated in the auction and where the coin sold.
6)All prices were rounded using scientific/engineering principle.
7)If the term "BU" was used I assumed MS63 and I think this is reasonable.
8)I determined if the coin sold below bid, at bid or over bid.
9)GF is written to denote from grandfather's collection.
10)I stopped when the 1882-S auction was closed.
11)These parameters were assigned before I looked at any auctions.
12)The results are very long so I did not type them all out.

Results-

1)One auction that closed well under Greysheet.
2)Two auctions that closed slightly under Greysheet.
3)Eighteen auctions that closed essentially at Greysheet.
4)Eight auctions that closed slightly over Greysheet.
5)Fortyseven auctions that closed well over Greysheet.
6)It was astounding how much over Greysheet many of these auctions closed!
7)Every picture that remained, there weren't many, looked like an AT coin.
8)Many coins were explicitly described as either "natural" or from GF or both.

Therefore, I cannot accept at all the idea that the coins were closing at some sort of discount because people who were bidding knew they were AT. Additionally, those who were bidding likely did not know they were AT, therefore, they would not subsequently ask to return the coins.

I have the actual data tabulated but it is much too long to write in this thread. If you believe there is an error in my analysis I invite you to do your own research into the selling prices and logically dispute it.

-------------------------
Questions about toning? Go to my web site and click the "Image Notes & Toning Articles" link.

Ivyleaguecoin Numismatists

K6AZ

TomB is absolutely correct in his analysis. From the beginning, I had assumed most people would have at least done a 30 day search on his past auctions, but apparently I was mistaken.

The bottom line is, in his auctions, he led people to believe these were naturally toned coins, and most of them went for what a naturally toned raw Morgan would bring. In my opinion, this is misreprensentation for financial gain.

jamesfsm

TomB inspired much of my interest in toned coins. Plus, Tom is very willing to looks at your stuff/scans or whatever to help out. He's a good guy and one of the most knowing here. His opinion counts for much.

stujoe

It doesn’t surprise me in the least.
I believe many collectors do not have the knowledge that the average collector who participates in online forums has. There is more information posted in a place like this in a week that many, average coin collectors are exposed to ever. Where can you get access to people who have the kind of experience that can be found in a place like this? I think that is easy to take for granted. It might be easy to say, “It’s obvious, and they know what they are getting and are bidding accordingly.” I don’t believe that to usually be the case.

stman

TomB, although we know there is no question these are BAD coins, I guess it helps to do the research and have the paperwork also. I would tip my hat to you ( if I wore one ) for taking the time and energy to do this. I have to admit I wouldn't have the time or the patience to do this. Thanks

robertpr

I always assumed eBay auctions generally closed at somewhat of a discount to greysheet which makes the results that much more surprising. Thanks for all the hard work, none of which I would have the time or patience to do.

MrLee

GSAGUY. Thanks for reposting this. I missed it earlier.

And thanks to TomB for all the hard work and time it took to compile that information. I've always felt many of the auctions go for more than greysheet and probably because the average buyer there is just not informed enough to research the prices. EBay is a great dumping ground.

Thanks again

Lee

braddick

TomB is one of the top five most credible members on these Forums.
If he wrote it, I believe it- without even having to investigate on my own.