Your View of the Coin Market ...

fantasiize

... excluding of course the very low pop top or anything that maybe the 98% of the coin buying public cannot regularly afford to buy (ok, let's say we can cap it off at $500).

Is it on its way up (if so, how long will it continue) ?

Is it on its way down (if so, when did it "spring a leak", when will the leak grow larger or burst) ?

Will it remain on the same level for a while (if so, how long) ?

Here are my thoughts (based on my personal opinions/observations and just "plain ole gut feelings"):
I think the overall market probably sprang a leak late last year/early this year. I think that the higher gold prices (temporary, in my mind) helped sustain the leak and now the leak is growing and about to burst. The burst is probably very close upon us (I know, hoooray, some of us can start buying some nice coins at nice prices again). I think the rise will start again in 2005 (which may make this the smallest down market after a very bull market in 30 years).

Your thoughts/opinions/observations ?

dan1ecu

Hello, fantasiize –

I suspect that the bubble is mainly affecting high grade modern coins. From what I’ve seen in the auction archives, prices have come down significantly over the last 10 year for many coins, like MS65 Saints and mint state Barbers. I’d be worried if much of my collection was registry quality stuff (the $30,000 1963 PR70 Lincoln Cent comes to mind).

Dan

ms71

I don't have much of a read on the overall market, pre-1933 gold is my only interest. I do hope you're right about a decline coming, but you'd never get that sense from the coin press or dealers at shows (bias?). It sure would be nice to have the available funds go a little further. If nice gold continues to surge, I may be forced to look into another area, at least for awhile.

Baley

I think the coin market is very healthy overall, with pockets of Bubble and Weakness:

bubbles include top pop coins minted since 1964 and Monster Rainbows certified by Pcgs or NGC (I predict that the populations of both will increase exponentially over the next few years)

Weakness (read: value) exists in esoteric issues: 2 cent pieces and trimes, early half dimes, scarce browning, overton, and bolander varieties, etc. I am still finding lots of these for just a bit over "type" prices and continue to accumulate.

there is strong demand for pre-1808 coins and one must pay Trends+ for certified exampes. (for example, I paid EF money for a pcgs vf-25 1799 bust dollar, the reverse of which is shown at left, and considered it a bargain)

the market for nice coins is very strong, and anything with eye appeal sells readily!

CLASSICS

try to remember this.............common coins are just that....common....and will never become rare.... that is why you see all this mostly newer stuff falling in price. they are easy to hype to the newer collectors and are overpriced to begin with.......fads....... and fads come an go....... the rare coins, some are very rare indeed, and very expensive, but when you start to get into these types of items, the only thing that can become more rare is buyers, the market become very thin for expensive items. coins that are original never messed with, dipped ,cleaned, etc. etc., and with great eye appeal that are within a reasonable price , will always always find a new home.

northcoin

It appears to me that internet bidding at major auctions is having a significant impact on the market. Whereas before you had mainly dealers bidding at auctions you now have a broader base of bidders going after the same coins and this has upped the prices on limited supply highly sought after coins regardless of date or issue - at least it has upped the "wholesale price." When I keep hearing from coin dealers that they can't find good quality material to buy, I think what they are really saying is they can't find such coins for a cheap enough wholesale price to be able to mark them up to a profitable retail price for resale. For good or bad the spread between retail and wholesale is being narrowed as more and more coins are sold directly to the public at auction and on the internet. This results in a perceived "hot coin market" which in reality may really be a reflection of a lot of dealers having to ask more and price higher the coins they get but may not translate into more sales since their customer base now has other options and can get the same coins at the new "wholesale" prices at the auctions themselves or on the internet, albeit at the now higher "wholesale" prices.

dan1ecu

Baley –

“bubbles include top pop coins minted since 1964 and Monster Rainbows certified by Pcgs or NGC (I predict that the populations of both will increase exponentially over the next few years)”

Just a comment – I can see the populations of modern coins increasing because there are still so many around, but I wonder if many (most?) of the attractively toned older coins have already been slabbed.

Dan

truthteller

A simple rule of thumb that I realized from early on experiences from 1980 and 1989. If the coin market looks too good, the average person says the prices are way out of line, the dealers say 'it's a great market', IT'S TIME TO SELL. By the time the average Joe figures out what's going on, it's too late. However, if the average Joe says, WOW, my collection is worth that much, sell into the market and be glad. Goes for stocks, bonds, coins, gold, antiques, and beautiful women.

TRUTH

ARCO

I think collector grade coins (F-AU) from the pre-50's, will never go out of style. For the most part, there is ample supply to make it possible to complete a set, yet challenging to make it fun. The coins need not be slabbed to be sellable, and the liquidity due to lower price make them easy to buy and sell whenever.

I have $15,000 in barbers, and other popular series all in nice circulated Fine to AU condition. Most of the coins have trends prices from $20.00 to $500.00 They sell like hotcakes whenever I sell off duplicates, and they are the backbone of the larger collecting community.

When in the history of numismatics have popular coins grading VF, XF or AU had their price bubble burst?

Tyler

Baley

very wise, truthteller, and i consider what you've written to be the truth.

dan1ecu, yes, the newer a coin is, the more likely it has been preserved in perfect condition, simply because it has had less time for various somethings bad to happen to it to reduce it's grade. So I think the more premium someone pays for a newer coin, the more risk of that "point premium" evaporating on them as more of the newer coins are cherry picked and submitted, and the top pops increasing in number and going down in value.. obviously this risk decreases the older a coin is... I doubt there are many 19th century proof sets sitting in someone's hope chest or safety deposit box or desk drawer, that just happen to be suberb cameos, waiting to be slabbed. I DO think there are many many such proof sets minted in the 60's , 70's and 80's waiting to be graded.

As for the question of toning, this has been discussed ad naseum on here, but my opinion, oft restated, is: the more premium a person pays for color, the more risk they're taking of having their value diluted by more such beautiful rainbows appearing on the market. Whether discovered, or created, or something in between, attractive toning on an uncirculated coin is not a fixed thing, and supply and demand being what they are, attractively toned coins will tend to seek an equilibrium with the market.

In fact, lots of serious numismatists consider it perfectly acceptable to place nice uncirculated but common date morgans, walkers, mercuries, etc, in paper envelopes or older style coin albums for a decade or two and hope for the best. Any attractive natural looking toning will not detract from the coins' value, and may add significantly to eye appeal. I consider it a favor to future collectors that we do so when we aqcuire otherwise high grade 100+ year old coins that have been unfortuantely harshly cleaned in a solution and/or lightly hairlined, provided the pieces can be acquired at a favorable price. such an endevor could pay off hansomely..

so right now I think the market undervalues lightly cleaned early type coins, specially pre-1836 issues, and overvalues perfect moderns.. i do not feel the need to proclaim this belief other than this brief message, but am putting money where mouth is by spending my coin money on the former rather than the latter. Of course, Original early type is best of all, IMO, that's just what I like. I realize some collectors get a lot of pleasure out of modern coins that are perfect and identical, and that's great for them too. Hey, I own a complete collection of Ikes! MS and PF -64-66 in a dansco. Do I like them? yes. Do I want to upgrade them? no.

but if the question is about the market and it's potential, well it's about supply and demand again and you have my opinions about the relative supply and demand for coins versus their age, condition, and color.

cladking

<< <i>
>>



People who believed the dot.coms were a bubble SOLD. They made large amounts
of money by SELLING. It's always been this way. If you can figure out where a market
is and where it's going all you have to do is go the other way. But these people who slam
moderns have for the most part been slamming them since even before they were the hot-
test segment of the market. They were slamming the mint sets when they sold for less than
face value, they slammed collectors who paid over face for clad crap, and they'll slam any
coin made since 1964 whether it's common or rare or anything in between. Now that the
coins are hot they slam the market for moderns and question the sanity of anyone who pays
exorbitant sums for the coins.

Everyone seems to know that these markets are mere bubbles and smoke and mirrors,
yet none of them SELL. There is of course a very simple reason for this; they don't own
any. They never bought any clad crap and they're pained that someone else would. These
coins were too common for them to collect, too common to set aside, and too common to
buy. Now that demand is outstripping supply it is causing a price increase. Yet they can
contribute nothing to the supply or the demand because they can't buy either.

If you want to know where the market is headed then watch the moderns. If you want to
know where it's been then listen to the people who bash them.

barberlover

I would love it if the coins i collect would sky rocket in value, but thats not why i baught them. As for predictions of what the market for coins will due, who really knows if rarity were always a factor in price performance proof buffalo nickles would not have almost doubled in price in the last 12 months. I remember seeing 36 & 37 examples selling in 67 for under 1000 dollars 2 years ago. How about 32 d washington quarters in 64 with pops. of over 200 coins selling now for between 4 to 5,000 bucks. I will buy what i like because i like it not because it will make me rich. But if the person who paid 89,000 for the 32 d quarter in 66, or the person who paid 39,000 for the infamous 63 proof 70 dcam lincoln want to make me some like offers on some real rare coins i'd be happy to entertain some offers.

jdimmick

I think the hype for super high grade material will begin to die a slow death in the next year. As soon as the hype is over, generated from the recent registery sets, you will begin to see material that was once the hottest thing going become increasingly difficult to sell. As time goes on, this material that is sitting around will have to be reduced to sell.

There are a couple of true modern rarities, and these may hold on to some value and even increase as time goes by, with newer collectors coming into the market and looking to complete sets and sort.

I do feel the recent overall strong market and intense demand has definitley fueled strong price increases in the key-date area (my intrest ). Many people are looking to complete sets more than ever and this demand has put intense price pressure on coins. People are trying so hard and fast to get the coins they need to finish these sets and are literally paying what it takes to obtain them. If I were to sell out at this time, I could literally double my investment, but that is not why I bought them in the first place, not for investment, but because I love coins. I do think this market will take a soft hit as well when the bubble bursts in the other areas, but because of the true collector value and demand of these type pieces, prices gained during this boom time will remain relitively the same, maybe just a moderate slow down of advancements.

Another area where I feel prices will remain steady even with a market collapse is nice problem free circulated collector type coins, many of these coins are still very reasonably priced ,and still some undervalued. The area to watch when a down turn hits is High-end mintstate 20th century type??

Just some thoughts!

truthteller

Cladking,

I nicely bash moderns every once and a while, but I speak from experience. In 1992, I owned a high grade PCGS modern commem set in MS-PF69 and 70 for a short period of time. I sold the 4 MS70 coins for quite a profit over what I paid, I believe it was $450 a piece for the $ commems and $900 for the gold $5. I held on to the MS69 pieces for 5 more years, all with very, very low pops. When I decided to sell, the offers were NOTHING over $50 a coin. I shopped these coins to death, no one but telemarkers would have anything to do with them, they were dregs, but since I was in them at issue price plus grading fees, the profit was minimal at best. Now consider today, if you buy the coins at issue price and get MS69 and 70 grades, you're OK. If you buy them at absurd prices because of the low pop, you taking chances. I bash from experience, my experience, always sell when there is a demand, always buy when no one wants them. Goes for modern commems, statehood quarters, etc.

TRUTH

supercoin

Truth, the problem with "modern bashing" is that it usually painted with a broad brush that is virtually meaningless.

Your modern commem set in MS69 is hardly representative of the overall modern market, and anyone involved in that modern commem series for a while with their eyes open would know that there is no true condition-rarity in the entire series with the exception of the unc GW half. And that one's borderline.

I have no idea where future prices are heading, but gem circulation strike Ikes (for example) and MS69 commems have little reason to follow the same path.

DaveG

I can't speak about "bubbles" or the direction of prices, but I can say that I've been going to the same monthly shows since 1993 and the shows are much more crowded than they were then, the dealers I've been going to have better inventories (more, and nicer, coins) than they had then and dealers are less hungry to make a sale (smaller discounts) than they were then. I started to notice the shows getting more crowded about a year ago.

The bad news is that I can't buy coins as cheaply as I did then, the good news is that more nice coins are available, presumably because sellers then said "No way I'm going to sell this coin for so little" whereas now they see prices they're willing to sell at.

cladking

<< <i>
I nicely bash moderns every once and a while, but I speak from experience. In 1992, I owned a high grade PCGS modern commem set in MS-PF69 and 70 for a short period of time. I sold the 4 MS70 coins for quite a profit over what I paid, I believe it was $450 a piece for the $ commems and $900 for the gold $5. I held on to the MS69 pieces for 5 more years, all with very, very low pops. When I decided to sell, the offers were NOTHING over $50 a coin. I shopped these coins to death, no one but telemarkers would have anything to do with them, they were dregs, but since I was in them at issue price plus grading fees, the profit was minimal at best. Now consider today, if you buy the coins at issue price and get MS69 and 70 grades, you're OK. If you buy them at absurd prices because of the low pop, you taking chances. I bash from experience, my experience, always sell when there is a demand, always buy when no one wants them. Goes for modern commems, statehood quarters, etc.
TRUTH >>



Obviously there is a lot of truth here and sound advice. There are, no doubt, segments of the modern
markets which are overpriced relative to what they are likely to be at some point in the future. There
are a few moderns which are hyped and might also have corrections. But there are a lot of people
having a lot of fun putting together various sets which include moderns. This practice is growing and
is likely to continue it's growth for some time. While investment in ANY coin is not really a good financial
move, there are many coins which are poised for years of substantial gains if the new demand continues.
Certainly paying amounts far in excess of historic prices can be a risky financial move but in all probability
those engaged in such things are buying for the sheer enjoyment rather than as an investment. Surely
they've heard all the warnings a million times!

Perhaps this is part of the attraction.

truthteller

Supercoin, I respectfully disagree. With modern mint coinage, the wide brush is warranted due to the PCGS product. Anything graded by PCGS can be rare, for a while, not over the long term, that's a given from previous market conditions. With modern IKES, there MIGHT be an exception. However, the upturn in the IKE market has NOT SEEN a correction. Unlike classics, which have market rises and falls, the IKE market has not seen that since the inception of the grading services. The correction is imminent, but we will post again once that happens. For minor modern coinage, I stand firm in saying that these coins are not rare, will never be rare, only are rare because the grading services pop reports say so. In addition, the attribution of full steps, full bands, full bell lines and so on will proliferate, but will not make the coin rare since these designations are merely strike characteristics inherent in the grade of the coin.

TRUTH

Bear

It is always difficult to predict where the future collecting habits of the coin hobbiest will turn

next. My view of the coin investment future is summed up in one word. DIVERSIFICATION.

It is no longer a battle between Modern and Classical Coins. Rather it is a select selection from

the major collecting catagories. It OK to have a specialty, but a big portion of your money should

be destributed around. Modern Coinage in Very high grade , especially with superb toning,

is beautiful, somewhat less expensive the older coinage and perfectly suitable for long term

collecting. In addition, as ones earning rise, and with more discretionary money to spend, buy

some Seated Liberty and Barber in at least gem condition . Remember to select those coins with

clean surfaces, light toning, high luster and pleasing appearence. You might consider cashing out

some duplicates of your moderns to pay for these older coins. Standing Liberty Quarters, while not cheap

can be purchased in gem or better condition at fairly reasonable prices. It is not always necessary

to puchase and pay for full head coins. A nice 3/4 head can be very beautiful also, as long as you

buy the quality gem coins with deep origonal luster or what we call "Origonal Skin" Some

Liberty Standing Quarters come Frosty, semi PL or deep luster smooth and silky. Stay with the more

common dates. You can afford a better grade with such coins. Commemorative Coins are now a bargain.

You can find many Gem or higher grade commems with beautiful toning at reasonable prices. The

important thing to remember is origonal Luster, clean surface and no dull, weak struck or very dark

toned coins. I tend to collect Commemoratives with beautiful , well designed artistic achievement

and light warm toned colors. Gold, Burgandy, Apple Green, Reds, Light lavender ect.Finally a selection

of morgan or peace dollars. I prefer the Morgan dollars for the beautiful PL and DMPL mirror fields

and the more available beautiful toning on them.It is important on mirrored coins to get ones with

minimal distracting marks on the mirror. These types of surfaces always seem to magnify the slightest

marks. Try to get a well rounded and reletively smooth and mark free face on the dollar. As always,

stay away from flat, weak strikes, badly marked up or dull surfaces. The key is always LUSTER,

LUSTER and more LUSTER. If you are able to do these things, then you will always catch the next

collecting cycle with a part of you collection. Top quality is what people alwas want in a down or up cycle.

Top quality coins on any grade, will always cost top prices. But I have found that the cost is repaid

many times over when it is time to sell all or a portion of your collection. Bear



ced

cladking

<< <i>Supercoin, I respectfully disagree. With modern mint coinage, the wide brush is warranted due to the PCGS product. Anything graded by PCGS can be rare, for a while, not over the long term, that's a given from previous market conditions. With modern IKES, there MIGHT be an exception. However, the upturn in the IKE market has NOT SEEN a correction. Unlike classics, which have market rises and falls, the IKE market has not seen that since the inception of the grading services. The correction is imminent, but we will post again once that happens. For minor modern coinage, I stand firm in saying that these coins are not rare, will never be rare, only are rare because the grading services pop reports say so. In addition, the attribution of full steps, full bands, full bell lines and so on will proliferate, but will not make the coin rare since these designations are merely strike characteristics inherent in the grade of the coin.

TRUTH >>



There are dozens of scarce and rare moderns of all denominations. In addition there
are some regular issues which are scarce even in MS-60. There are fewer unc 1983-P
quarters than there are 1916-D dimes. Sure there are hundreds of millions of circulated
83-P coins, but many people collect these only in unc. Many people who collect the circ
coins may want to upgrade someday. The primary reason that moderns have been cheap
is a virtual absence of demand, it is not because they are all common. They simply are not!




spelling

supercoin

Truth, surely you can see there is a HUGE difference between modern commems (which were with one exception superbly produced in and individually protectively packaged) and circulation strike Ikes (which were some of the worst-produced coins in the mint's history and for which several dates have yet to yield a single PCGS MS67 example despite the huge financial rewards in doing so).

You might make a convincing argument that the price of a top-pop Ike depends heavily on the PCGS holder. And you could get me to agree that the difference between a PCGS MS66 and MS67 is sometimes little more than chance.

But the fact remains that a nice Ike (in many dates) is simply a very difficult thing to find. A nice commem is not. They share very little in common.

And of course the same arguments to be made against "condition-rare" Ikes being expensive apply in spades to many classic series. Which is again why the wide modern brush makes little sense to me.

In fact, Morgan dollars make a better Ike analogy than modern commems.

Another thought... modern-bashing generally focuses on the low-pop high-priced stuff. Since those represent a very few coins, obviously 99% of modern collectors don't collect that. They are happily putting together entire collections for the cost of one or two of those coins.

So, what is this imminent correction? Top-pops, or the coins most people collect? And, what about the people (perhaps including yourself) that said the same thing 5 years ago, what has happened since then? Correction predictions are generally true, if you keep at it long enough.

Baley

TextThere are fewer unc 1983-P
quarters than there are 1916-D dimes.Text

really? i find this astounding and unbelieveable if you mean that there are fewer unc '83 quarters than there are unc. '16D dimes.

if you mean there are fewer SLABBED unc. '83 quarters than there were '16d dimes MINTED then I might buy it.

truthteller

Clad,

I don't agree. The reason true classics are scarce because enough time has passed since their minting to allow the actual determination that fewer exist. I used to buy estates for 6 years during the 1990's, and people would come and sell all sorts of coins, still in wrappers from the 60's and 70's. The vast, vast majority of the coins were common as heck, including BU rolls of Franklins and Mercs. In addition, tons of modern coins were offered, Ikes,early 80's washington 25C, and Roosies, all BU rolls. Thousands of rolls, all BU. The silver rolls of Franklins and Washington 25C were few and far between and of those rolls, very, very few were high grade coins. Now, if these folks saved all these coins for all those years, it stands to reason, that tens of thousands of BU rolls of IKE's, cladcoins, etc are still hidden in homes across American, but the silver BU rolls and bags have been redeemed long ago, because they are worth more. The average Joe won't know the difference between a BU roll of '83 25C or a '96, to him it's just money, that's why they won't be redeemed. In fact, when I had my store, people would call and ask if rolls of clad BU coins were worth anything. I told them 'maybe', but only by date. They owners wouldn't bring them in since it was too much trouble to look through all the coins for better date clad rolls. Thus, they kept them. When our coinage turns to aluminum, then you will have people come into coin stores across the country and sell their clad rolls, because they will be 'worth' more. Then we will see what clad coins are truly rare.

TRUTH

cladking

The statement is meant literally. To rephrase it: There are more 1916-D dimes than there are unc 83-P quarters.

truthteller

Supercoin,

A correction alludes to overvalued top pops and modern coins priced at more than $300. I accept the notion that modern coins priced fairly from $10 to $300 are in the mainstream of collecting. I do not agree that the higher end coins are so. Again, I might be swayed in 20 years with your argument about IKE dollars. But recently, I bought a small collection of silver dollars, among them were 3 rolls of BU IKes. I got a premium because they were truly BU, and a few were probably MS66, but it was not worth my time and trouble to send them for grading on the chance I might get a MS66. But again, three BU rolls in a deal worth less than $1000 of 90% silver. That means many, many BU rolls of IKEs are still out there, they just haven't been redeemed.

TRUTH

cladking

<< <i>

I don't agree. The reason true classics are scarce because enough time has passed since their minting to allow the actual determination that fewer exist. I used to buy estates for 6 years during the 1990's, and people would come and sell all sorts of coins, still in wrappers from the 60's and 70's. The vast, vast majority of the coins were common as heck, including BU rolls of Franklins and Mercs. In addition, tons of modern coins were offered, Ikes,early 80's washington 25C, and Roosies, all BU rolls. Thousands of rolls, all BU. The silver rolls of Franklins and Washington 25C were few and far between and of those rolls, very, very few were high grade coins. Now, if these folks saved all these coins for all those years, it stands to reason, that tens of thousands of BU rolls of IKE's, cladcoins, etc are still hidden in homes across American, but the silver BU rolls and bags have been redeemed long ago, because they are worth more. The average Joe won't know the difference between a BU roll of '83 25C or a '96, to him it's just money, that's why they won't be redeemed. In fact, when I had my store, people would call and ask if rolls of clad BU coins were worth anything. I told them 'maybe', but only by date. They owners wouldn't bring them in since it was too much trouble to look through all the coins for better date clad rolls. Thus, they kept them. When our coinage turns to aluminum, then you will have people come into coin stores across the country and sell their clad rolls, because they will be 'worth' more. Then we will see what clad coins are truly rare.

TRUTH >>



You might consider the possibility that a generation and a half is a very long
time for people to wait to start collecting a new coin. Perhaps we are about
to see which clads are rare now!

supercoin

Truth, if those were a tough date I seriously doubt you had any MS66 in those couple rolls. And if you did, it certainly would have been worth your time. If you still have them, I'd be happy to take them off your hands if you don't want to trouble yourself.

Yes, there are undoubtably many rolls still out there. How many gems will be found and whether they will be enough to meet potentially increasing demand is a very different question. I think I could make a more informed guess than someone not familiar with the series, and I'm not still not comfortable making a prediction. Which makes me skeptical of others who do feel comfortable making those predictions (not necessarily including yourself here) with very little knowledge of the series.

baseball...

- The Silver Eagles have much the same issues as the modern commems (not quite as well made, but many more available, in mint-issued rolls) and I pointed out here many months ago that those coins were highly likely to see substantially increased populations in high grade. I got that one right, anyway.

- The MS69 quarters, and many MS68, definitely fall under the "crazy top pop" pricing that is not applicable to 99% of collectors. They are also, of course, on the bleeding edge of moderns, so there is of course likely to be a lot of volatility.

- I haven't followed the Kennedy's to be able to comment.

- I'm not sure what you're referring to with the Ikes. I'm less in touch lately but I'm certainly not aware of anything approaching a "drastic" decline. And in the high-end, recent prices have been significantly HIGHER than 18 months ago. Unless maybe you're talking about the specially-packaged silver Ikes that are easy in those grades?

To be clear, I am NOT saying that any certain coins will continue to increase, and in fact I'm a vocal critic of coins as an investment. My point is that there isn't one "modern market" with one set of rules. There are many markets within moderns with their own unique characteristics. Just as there are in the broader coin market. And just as in the broader market, there are "good" deals and "bad" deals, and plenty of in-between.

coinkat

Cladking:

Unfortunately I do not have a reference book handy, but my recollection is that there were approximately 264,000 1916-d Mercury Dimes minted (give or take afew thousand...). While I agree that the 1983 quarter may not be common in uncirculated condition, an uncirculated example can be found in the 1983 Mint Set. I'm guessing on this, but I would say at least 2,500,000 1983 sets were sold...perhaps 3,000,000? If you add the 1983 quarters in the mint sets to those that exist in BU rolls, well, the 1916-d is the scarcer coin.

I am not entering this modern v. classic debate... but even though I don't think the numbers add up to support your position, I still think that we all can all agree that the 1983 quarter is much scarcer than most collectors think and even perhaps is even undervalued.

oreville

coinkat: There is a SERIOUS hole in your argument.

NO mint sets were issued by the US Mint in 1982 or 1983!!!!! Now, a few thousand if that many, mint made packages were sold only to visitors at the US Mints in Denver. I am not sure if any were for sale to Phila Mint customers as I have never seen one.

Now re-evaluate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

edited for the usual mispellings. :-(

coinkat

Oreville:

Thanks for correcting me... you are right about the 1983 mint sets. I have been collecting for over 30 years and sometimes its easy to forget the obvious. However, that is still not a reasonable excuse.

Cladking:

Even though it seems hard to believe, you very well could be right about this. I apologize for not checking a reference before posting a response.

oreville

coinkat: No problem at all!! We all forget or better put forget forget more as we get old. :-(

Now the question is how many 1983-P BU quarters are there?

I am a collector of mint state coins and love mint state (BU) coins. Just bought a gorgeous brown 1837 mint state Coronet large cent at a grade I never imagined existed until just a few weeks ago!!

But the concern is that the 1983-P quarter in BU condition may be indeed the rarest quarter since the 1949-P quarter. But because it is a modern coin it may see more demand than the 1949 quarter just like the 1941-S walker gets more demand than many of the rarer walkers of the 1930's.

I had a chance to buy a BAG of them in 1983 and said, nah to my friend and he bought TWO BAGs of them. 4000 in a bag. 8000 total.

He dispersed one bag 10-15 years ago very slowly into the market. He still has the other bag.

The remaining bag is partially ruined to a flood he sustained two years ago. Only 1/3 of the bag was saved. But the coins were mostly poor quality BU's anyway. What a crummy year of minting quarters. Really nice 1983 quarters are not easy to find above MS-64 grade.

Rarities take years to become known. Usually, the highest mintages yield the lowest saved BU coins, the lowest yield the highest number of saved BU coins such as thye 1931-S cent and 1950-D nickel. It is logical but we all forget that lesson.

The fun is trying to figure it all out.

coinkat

Oreville:

About 7 years ago, I had the chance to buy a beautifully toned MS65 1837 LC that was graded by PCGS. I even thought it was undergraded and could have been a 66. It truly was one of the better LC I had seen. Needless to say, I did not want to spent about $700 for it and in hind sight, it was probably a mistake on my part. Congrats on the purchase...

Back to the 1983 quarters... I think that your comparison to the 1949 is a good one. Alot of late date Washington silver rolls were melted and perhaps the 1956-d is not as common as once believed, but I don't think it is close to being in the same catagory as the 1983. How many 1983 BU quarters are out there? Its anyone's guess...

The rarity of a coin in certain grades can not be judged based on mintage figures. The bottom line is some coins with higher mintages were not saved or hoarded in any quantity...and as you pointed out, its not just a modern problem.

homerunhall

I feel the coin market is very healthy and far from springing any leak, I think the market started to get good in November, 2001, and has continued to improved on virtually a monthly basis every month since.

Currently, demand is huge in many areas, and dealer inventories are low. Auction prices are very strong, and I'm not taking about Pop Tops, which are off-the-map godzilla strong.

All of the heat seems very logical to me. The market was last really good in the 1983-1990 time frame. Rare coins are the only major collectible that did not increase in value during the 1990s. It's our turn now. These bull market cycles usually last for quite a few years...1961-1964...1971-1974...1977-1980...1983-1990. I think this market has tremendous momentum and could run for another 3 to 4 years.

Note that during bull markets of the past, different market segments took turns being in the spotlight...so commems can get hot for a year or two, then maybe type coins take over, etc. Right now, 20th Century is leading the way. This could change, but who knows when?

Bottom line...I really like this market. It seems very collector driven and reminds me of the early 1960s, rather than the 1980s.

David Hall

oreville

baseball: Your quote:



<< <i>As far as the 1983-P quarter is concerned, I have no idea how rare they are in unc. However, there are 2 PCGS MS65 examples on ebay as I write this. How tough could they really be? And rare compared to what? Just other quarters of the same era. Not really all that impressive if that's the case. >>



Take a look at my thought about that one and I happen to own both the 1983-P quarter and 1916-D FB dime in mint state. You will like this one!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Here it goes:

As far as the 1916-D dime is concerned, I have no idea how rare they are in unc. However, there are 2 PCGS examples on ebay (0ne MS-65FB and the other MS-66FB) as I write this. How tough could they really be? And rare compared to what? Just other dimes of the same era. Not really all that impressive if that's the case.

Baseball, my friend, I make this quote especially for you, even though there are few coins I like better than the 1916-D dime!

OnlyBuffalos

I deal primarily in buffalo nickels and early copper part-time and collect Barber halfs. My opinions:

The opportunity to find key and semi-key buffalo nickels for sale has declined drastically in the last several years. Price lists, greysheet, etc. are meaningless for these coins if they have clean rims, nice surfaces, are uncleaned and have full or even close to full strikes. I will typically pay at least twice greysheet bid for those coins in XF or AU circulated condition. Those coins are in strong hands and likely to remain so. Almost everything for sale does not meet one or more of those criteria.

The market for key and semi-key buffalos in lesser grades and lesser condition than the above is also strong. They generally can be found but expect to pay a premium for the better ones. Have seen no sign of this changing.

Demand for common date nickels with exceptional eye appeal from 1914 to 1929 has picked up recently resulting in a stronger market for these coins. Those without this attribute are not selling well.

MS65 and above for the better dates remains strong and is out-of-sight for the keys. Common dates have weakened somewhat. Lots of speculation remains in this arena.

Early date copper is torrid right now for anything before 1820. So many of these coins have problems. If you have one that is choice, you can expect to be surprised at what a specialist will pay. These coins were asleep for a long time and there are now speculators actively in this area. Expect this trend will continue for some time.

Barber halfs. Have collected these for a little over a year. Very tough to find problem free, original coins.
Hopefully the ARCO hoard will come to market soon.

JamminJ

Hi There,

Oreville: I can confirm that speciman sets were issued by the Philadelphia mint in 1982, at least. I bought one when I was 13 (and still have it!)

-JamminJ

oreville

I happen to agree with homerunhall's posting. It is just those "nuclear" and "hot" terms I can't stand when there is no word between ok and hot. Whatever happened to the word warm?

Warm is a nice likeable word last I checked!

oreville

Jannin1: Thanks...now I remember them. There is even one on ebay for sale. Horrible looking!!!! No wonder I want to forget they exist!!!

roadrunner

As slabbed coin poulations increased exponentially during the 1986-1990 time frame, prices eventually fell apart. This was especially true for common coins like MS Morgans, Saints, Commems, common dated 20th century from the 30's to 40's, etc. The same trend will occur will clads and moderns as the numbers continue to increase.

If gold plays a stronger role over the next few years (over $400), expect the classic end of the rare coin market to benefit from the increased influx of money. I don't think dealers will be plowing their gold induced profits into clads and later date moderns. If gold doesn't perform, the market could go any number of directions. My bet is on gold, silver and more classic rare coins that have been ignored for the past 12 years. Like Truth said, every dog has its day


roadrunner

eagle7

I like what The Bear had to say! Mr Bear you are right on IMO! It goes along with what Mr Hall said about different segments of the overall coin market stepping up as the whole market stays hot. Eye Appeal and quality for the grade means everything for the top dollar returned on the coin when it comes time to sell. Regardless of what segment we are speaking of.

wondercoin

"Supercoin,

Just in the last year or 18 months or so, many moderns have come down DRASTICALLY. Such as:

All MS69 ASEs
MS69 State Quarters where we had lively debates about whether there would ever be more than the ONE
MS68 State Quarters
MS66-67 Kennedies (Not as drastic)
MS65-66 Ikes (Not as drastic)"


Actually, this is not entirely true with the exception of ASE (and the less drastic comments on Kennedys and Ikes). But, as for state quarters, consider:

1. It is impossible to say that MS69 prices have come down. First, there has not been a resale of an MS69 STATE QUARTER that I am aware of EVER. Second, even the 2002 dated MS69 coins are trading close to their all time highs. Third, the 2000(d) MASS in PCGS-MS69 I recently sold (recently graded) commanded roughly a record price for MS69 material. Frankly, this statement would have been equally or even more accurate if it was suggested that MS69 prices are as strong as they ever have been.

2. As far as MS68 prices are concerned, while some price have corrected downward, many other prices have shot WAY up. For example, coins like most of the "d" mint coins from 2000-2001 are way, way up. 2002(d) quarters are strong as well in addition to some other selected pieces. If you disagree with what I am saying, please offer me all the MS68 state quarters I've just mentioned at 12-18 month ago prices and watch how much business we do Wondercoin

michael

for me and this only applies to collectors not to coin sellers looking to make$$

coins are not an investment

the only thing that makes coins worth more than their face/bullion value are

three things

demand
demand
demand!!!!!!!!!!!


that is why you only buy coins for fun as a hobby
and with discretionary money

if you buy for any other reason that is okie just make sure you reread the above many times!!!!!!!!!!!!!

if you are considering buying a coin to keep in your collection


ask yourself what can i sell this coin for if it is broken out of its respective holder in other words what is this coin worth raw? waht can i sell it for raw?

now if the market/selling price of the coin in its holder is substancially lots more than the selling/market price of the same coin raw then this is a coin i woulod be very very uncomforable holding for a long period of time if at all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

sincerely michael

keets

Now that demand is outstripping supply it is causing a price increase.

what a wonderfully simple explanation for why the price of virtually any coin rises and falls---economics 101!!

al h.

cladking

<< <i>As slabbed coin poulations increased exponentially during the 1986-1990 time frame, prices eventually fell apart. This was especially true for common coins like MS Morgans, Saints, Commems, common dated 20th century from the 30's to 40's, etc. The same trend will occur will clads and moderns as the numbers continue to increase.
roadrunner >>



The grading companies do not make these coins. However many are in existence
is the upper limit of what can be slabbed. While total slabbed populations of some
coins could well increase substantially it should be remembered that there are already
hundreds of times more demand for some of these than there are coins. For instance,
how many 1969 quarters have been slabbed? 100? 200? 2,000? What kind of number
is this in the face of the hundreds of thousands collecting them from circulation and the
tens of millions collecting the succeeding series? The Ikes have been getting graded for
many years now. Does it really seem likely that all of a sudden huge numbers of these
will suddenly be found and graded. While some clads and moderns may well have pop-
ulation increases larger than the demand, these markets are too large for blanket state-
ments which can apply to all of them.

The grading companies can grade unc 83-P quarters until the sun grows dim and there
will still be fewer of them than there are 1916-D dimes.

fantasiize

I was just catching up with this post.

Some interesting items I have picked out:
- coins are not a good investment
- this was probably the most civil modern vs classic debates (though not the main topic of this thread, the debate was a good one)
- to each, his own (as coin collecting goes)
- not very specific prediction though some good general predictions
- coins are not a good investment

Again, from my perspective, market is on its way down, across the board (using a $500 max, assuming 98% of collectors are in that boat). Since I think that 2005 would be when it gets hot again, I assume the lowest part of the dip would be middle 2004. Just an opinion, let's all see, hopefully we'll be around to debate it some more at that point.

Any more specific thoughts/opinions ?

Bear

Michael & Fantasize -Like all markets, the time to buy quality coins is when the market for them is soft.

That is the way you can get top quality for a reasonable cost. As for coins not being for profit,

I must differ with you. While profit is not the primary concern of most collectors, when you have

a significant amount of money in your collection you care. A good profit can be made if you buy the

top end range of whatever grade you prefer to collect. The coin must have a pleasing overall apperance

and shout quality, luster and have that come alive sense to it. These coins, if held thru several cycle

or the coin market, will reward you with great happiness, pride and a substantial profit. But profit

does not come easily in coin collecting. One makes many mistakes along the way untill you are able

to quantify what QUALITY really means. Patience is a vurtue here. Coins do not usually leap up

in price every day. Cycles occure as with the stock market, the weather and the tides.When you develope

the EYE for the right kind and types of coins as well as the Right type of toning, then my son you shall

be ready to reap the rewards of your endeavers. Bear