What does the future hold for grading services?

dan1ecu · August 6, 2002 1:44PM

When all that deserves to be slabbed is slabbed, what do you see as the role of the grading services? Will the bulk of their business come from those who think that they can get upgrades on already slabbed coins? I wonder what percentage of their revenue already comes from crossovers, and if crossovers are becoming increasingly important to their bottom line. Possibly there will be a lowering of grading standards to accommodate those trying for better grades (maybe some grading services already play this game to stay in business)? Of course if moderns stay as popular as they are, there will always be new coins to encapsulate from those hoping for that elusive MS 69... What do you think?

Dan

Rob0126 · August 6, 2002 2:02PM

Hi dan. you new to the boards? Welcome

Well, My thoughts(although not informative) are that PCGS, NGC will battle for supremacy, while ANACS goes about their business.

Anyone else got some ideas?

Robert

FlyTooHigh · August 6, 2002 2:15PM

The remaining ones (after losing ones close up) will find creative ways to continue to make money.

DHeath · August 6, 2002 2:20PM

I think the three services I use, PCGS, NGC, and ANACS, have all done a great job of creating value add for collectors. PCGS has a great modern service and a great member forum, NGC has NCS and great Q & A forums as well as an AT slab, ANACS does attribution and is great at communicating with collectors one on one about coins. All three are good graders, with each better in some series. Grading and guarantee are only part of the service these companies offer collectors, and I feel sure that if the hobby remains healthy, the services will too.

AlanB · August 6, 2002 2:54PM

I think that PCGS, NGC, and ANACS will be around as long as the hobby is. The other services, ICG, SEGS, etc... will hang around and new services will come and go but those will be the top 3.

Conder101 · August 6, 2002 11:56PM

Don't forget every few year the services will also change their holder designs to make money off of all the reholdering. (For some reason many collectors want all their purchases to be in the most recent holder and/or all of their coins to be in the same holder so it seems like every time the company changes designs within less than a year 90% of all of the coins offered for sale at a show are in the new holders. With the number of coins out there for sale that just seems like to fast a turnover rate unless a lot of slabs are sent in for reholdering.)

cladking · August 7, 2002 12:05AM

Once most of the coins have been priced by the grading services, perhaps
collectors will finally see it would be more convenient to have them graded.

MacCoin · August 7, 2002 12:21AM

as long as we buy coins on the net or mail order the grading services will be around mainly because there are a lot of people like myself who don't trust seller we don't know. the service give us some idea what we are getting. the service who make the least misstake will be around the longest. well good bye pci

gemseeker · August 7, 2002 9:50AM

90% of coins in a sale are in the new holder? That sounds like how people treat automobiles with the high turnover. Auto makers keep changing the designs so you keep replacing them.

dorkkarl · August 7, 2002 9:55AM

<< <i>When all that deserves to be slabbed is slabbed >>

no coin deserves the fate of being "slabbed"!!!

IrishMike · August 7, 2002 10:28AM

One of the big 3 will be sold within the next three years, spun off or out of business. Just a prediction.

FC57Coins · August 7, 2002 10:38AM

I think there's a definite niche for grading services, primarily, and unfortunately, because so many people can't grade! And as long as there's someone out there willing to take advantage of someone, there will be someone out there to be taken advantage of (with appologies to Mr. Barnum).

What I'd like to see is for NGC and PCGS to combine their grading scales into one. It seems to me that only then will we truly be able to benefit as collectors.

In my humble opinion.

FC

braddick · August 7, 2002 10:45AM

<< <i>One of the big 3 will be sold within the next three years, spun off or out of business. Just a prediction. >>

If you consider PCI or ICG or ACG one of the "big three", then I agree.

Bear · August 7, 2002 11:45AM

I believe that a series of mergers will take place among the grading services. Stranger things have happened then a buy out and merger of NGC and PCGS. I would give it 12 - 18 months, especially if the stock market continues to plunge thru the end of the year. Bear

VonZipper · August 7, 2002 11:52AM

I sort of agree with conder101. I think whoever comes out with an anthrax free irradiation proof holder will be the number one service. Just my opinion.

IrishMike · August 7, 2002 12:52PM

Nah Pat I don't only because it would be a first if we agreed.

BTW Pat, I'll bet you a coin on that prediction.

braddick · August 7, 2002 2:38PM

That would be a sucker's bet. I agree with you (other than it won't be PCGS or NGC that fold).

JeffMTampa · August 13, 2017 8:14AM

Interesting to read predictions on the Grading Services from 15 years ago....

Justacommeman · August 13, 2017 10:31AM

15 years later and let me add a prediction. NGC is trouble when it comes to classic US coins.

mark

BruceS · August 13, 2017 10:45AM

@Justacommeman said:
15 years later and let me add a prediction. NGC is trouble when it comes to classic US coins.

mark

I have to agree with you there, and it will be bad for the hobby, Imo, to give all that power to one tpg. A monopoly in any business isnt good for anybody (except for them of course)

In another 15 years will it be just them and the sticker people? Or will another service or two emerge to give more opinions?

Baley · August 13, 2017 10:59AM

It won't be long until someone figures out that "evaluating " just PCGS/CAC coins, and putting yet another sticker on only the best half or quarter or two-thirds of them, will "help" collectors and " the hobby" and, oh, btw, be very profitable for certain entities.

Zoins · August 13, 2017 11:18AM

@BruceS said:

@Justacommeman said:
15 years later and let me add a prediction. NGC is trouble when it comes to classic US coins.

mark

I have to agree with you there, and it will be bad for the hobby, Imo, to give all that power to one tpg. A monopoly in any business isnt good for anybody (except for them of course)

In another 15 years will it be just them and the sticker people? Or will another service or two emerge to give more opinions?

It is moving to one TPG and one sticker for classic US coins. There will still be room for others including large collections like EPN.

I do think ATS is missing a lot of things PCGS is executing well on. ATS slabs way more items than PCGS which is a plus but they need to improve on things like photos, websites, etc. It would be great for PCGS to slab more items.

WoodenJefferson · August 13, 2017 1:04PM

How long have companies been selling new and improved tooth brushes?

TurboSnail · August 13, 2017 1:05PM

Mobile app will replace the grading service.

topstuf · August 13, 2017 2:15PM

@TurboSnail said:
Mobile app will replace the grading service.

Add a "sniffer" to a Coinstar machine and..... VIOLA !!!! Or Vwahh-lah.

ricko · August 14, 2017 7:08AM

"There can be only one." Wow, resurrected, 15 year old thread..... Well, there have been some changes..... still have the main four TPG's.... but now we have an FPG. We have star and plus grades.....and new, improved slabs.... What will the future bring? Based on the last 15, probably not much... we evolve slowly. I will make a prediction (always dangerous - and even more dangerous to make it in writing).
Fifteen years from now (2032) we will have computer grading - AND - the TPG that launches it, with proven reputability, will be the market leader and - at some point - the surviving, and only, authority.
You heard it here.... and I stand by it.... that is, if I am still able to stand by then. Cheers, RickO

Walkerfan · August 14, 2017 8:35AM

I really worry about NGC........they were my first grading service and I feel much allegiance and devotion to them. My Registry experience began with them in 2005, My chat board experience began there also in 2009---both predating my chat board membership and Registry participation here at PCGS.

The NGC people have been nothing but kind, knowledgeable and helpful to me and I truly believe that their grading is very accurate and consistent, regardless of what the market perception is.

After Mark Salzberg made the proud and supercilious decision to not allow PCGS coins in their Registry, anymore, it looks as though registry participation has really slowed almost to a stand still over there. Their chat boards show very little activity, as well, even though they have updated and reformatted.

I really hope that they can stay viable, as they are relevant and sentimental to me....

A monopoly will not help this hobby, imho.

PS--this is NOT a meant as ANY kind of offense towards PCGS........everyone KNOWS they are great, too!!

derryb · August 14, 2017 8:36AM

a new grading system is their guarantee for survival. New system will generate endless regrading.

Cougar1978 · August 14, 2017 12:20PM

With advances in technology they could be replaced by some other grading system / company. Or two could merge. Self grading holder / 100 point system. Or current ownership could sellout to new owners. Who knows?

MikeInFL · August 14, 2017 1:45PM

On the one hand, a grading service is valued for their consistency.

On the other hand, consistency reduces profit.

It's not an easy balance to strike.

BillyKingsley · August 14, 2017 1:54PM

Talking slabs that give you a history of the coin with the push of a button.

TwoSides2aCoin · August 14, 2017 1:56PM

The future holds a subjective opinion of the grading services. Fair about is fair play.

What does the future hold for grading services?

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