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***2015 Gold and Silver Stocks/Options/Futures trading thread***

ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
This is a continuation of the 2014 trading thread to discuss the trading of PM-related stocks, options, and futures. I've switched to an annual thread due to the lower activity levels.

2014 Was not a bad year for gold, being only down a few percent overall in USD, but has done well in most other currencies. We have now had a 39 month correction and if you look at the chart below, we're stuck just below the 38.2% retracement level. We are at a critical junction at this level, and as I see it if we can get a breakout over the $1225 level we should be at the start of a long and sizeable up-trend. Gold could continue to go sideways or decline from here, but a breakout should be really positive for the year.
image

Along with gold, I'm looking for Bitcoin to follow along any gold rally.

The USD is interesting. Looking at the monthly trend, this could be the 7th straight up-month in a row.
image

The stock markets, in my opinion, are in a precarious position at this moment. This run is impressive. The monthly doji from December at the end of this long run can be an ominous sign. I would have to believe we are due for a decent pullback - not necessarily a crash - although a pullback for this big of a move might feel like a crash.
image
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Comments

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Position update:
    I still have a small long gold position that I started around $1125.
    As a slight gamble, I have a small ES (SP500) short position opened today.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,104 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I agree with your assessment of the stock market. It's overdue for a correction and if it comes, it should not be a surprise anyone. As in the past, it will happen when least expected.
    "Toss a coin or throw a dart" on PM predictions .. Gold and Silver still appear to be weak. Plat, Pall & Rhod are holding up better only because of a strong U.S. Auto market.
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608
    GLD made my list of top eight most profitable trading tickers for 2014, even though I mostly was long (mostly short puts and a few short calls and one failed bull calendar spread).

    More recently, I took a small long position in GDX (selling puts naked on the gold miner etf). I have a complicated option position in SPY that nets out to near neutral, but will profit the most if there is near exactly a 10% decline from here when the options expire. I update my blog weekly (signature link), so the GDX trades and position won't be reported there until this weekend.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My short on the SP500 has been profitable and I think Tuesday will have more downside. I'll be looking to exit tomorrow.

    Gold has broken out above $1225, but I would like to see it truly break out. I think it's going to, I'm going to look to add to my position tonight on a small pullback, but I'm not going to go nuts.

    It's worth mentioning crude oil. I think it could go a bit lower and hit $40. I think this is a no-lose situation if you can afford to buy a position and hold it should it gown down further (temporarily). I think it's almost a sure thing that crude will be back above $60-70 (if not higher) no later than the end of the year. So downside should be limited and temporary, upside of $20-$30 or more from $40.
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    With multiple days of SPY heavy buying on weakness, and today's massive +$2.2 BILL (WSJ BoW table), I think a strong bounce could occur Tuesday. Thursday's large gap up was filled as well. Entering a treasury auction/OpEx window the next few days, usually where SPY does well and the PM sector tends to get hit.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Duplicate....what a system.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    duplicate post on fusetalk hang up.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold


  • << <i>My short on the SP500 has been profitable and I think Tuesday will have more downside. I'll be looking to exit tomorrow.

    . >>



    How did you navigate the massive gap up open for /ES? Did you manage to eek out a sliver of profit by selling early or pre-market? Or did you get run over by the train after the market opened?
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>My short on the SP500 has been profitable and I think Tuesday will have more downside. I'll be looking to exit tomorrow.

    . >>



    How did you navigate the massive gap up open for /ES? Did you manage to eek out a sliver of profit by selling early or pre-market? Or did you get run over by the train after the market opened? >>



    I didn't see any gap, but the sudden move up was unexpected. I still have a small profit. I'm going to wait-and-see how it develops. I'm looking for a collapse from 2050. If it doesn't go anywhere in the next few hours I'll close it out.

    Gold on the other hand had a nice break above $1225 but I'm not 100% sure we're out of the woods. I didn't get a chance to add to my position. I think if I'm patient I might be able to catch a dip today.


  • << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>My short on the SP500 has been profitable and I think Tuesday will have more downside. I'll be looking to exit tomorrow.

    . >>



    How did you navigate the massive gap up open for /ES? Did you manage to eek out a sliver of profit by selling early or pre-market? Or did you get run over by the train after the market opened? >>



    I didn't see any gap, but the sudden move up was unexpected. I still have a small profit. I'm going to wait-and-see how it develops. I'm looking for a collapse from 2050. If it doesn't go anywhere in the next few hours I'll close it out.

    Gold on the other hand had a nice break above $1225 but I'm not 100% sure we're out of the woods. I didn't get a chance to add to my position. I think if I'm patient I might be able to catch a dip today. >>



    Well if you are still holding short /ES it worked out, at least for this hour/day. I am dizzy from these swings. I stepped into a couple of piles of crap lately (entered some trades which are now in the red). Unlike some other traders, I tend not to do well during fast markets.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yeah, I just didn't believe the rally at the open was for real and I was right and/or lucky, so holding ended up being the right move. I had planned to exit today but got busy in the hours at market close and I did not sell. I think that will be OK.

    Gold has me a little worried, I did get filled on a dip and I am up on the additional contract but I may sell and try to catch on a further dip tonight. I think we'll hit $1225 again which will be a better spot to add that position back. I would feel much better if gold would take off but the $1225 level is a heavy attractor.

    I would like to hear what others here have to say about a low for crude oil futures (CL). Is $40 a floor? I am seriously considering making a HUGE buy at that level, prepared to weather a drop to $30, and just hold it until oil climbs back to $70-80 or higher, expecting to hold for up to 2 years (although I'm not sure it will take that long).
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    image

    Maybe that trendline holds right here? Next stop $35ish.

    DO NOT expect a rebound like in 2009 as that was a flush of all assets, this is specific.

    3 years from now oil could, and I think probably will be, less than $65.

    Bubbles usually take a generation (20-30 years) to retest old highs---which I why I said 6 years ago that oil has probably hit its high during my lifetime.

    How much is a 38% retrace of this down move, about $23? So if it stops here, dont expect to even see $70 on some ridiculous dead cat bounce. I think the most you would see is about a 24% bounce, or about $14 (right now) targeting $58. If the trendline does not hold and oil drops to $35, it wont get back above the trendline $50 on a bounce.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks for the perspective. Do you see us entering a more serious world-wide recession that causes oil consumption to go down? I think rather than buying at $40 I'd probably target a very short term overshoot to the $35 area to do a buy. Where do you see prices stabilizing?

    I don't see necessarily $100 oil coming back any time soon, but $70-80, and that's based on a few things:
    1. Any commodity really can't sustain a price that far below production costs for long. I think a worldwide average production cost is around $70-80/bbl.
    2. The "oversupply" of oil is only about 3%. If new supplies stop coming online to replace depleted supplies and consumption worldwide stays level or keeps increasing, the oversupply disappears pretty quickly.
    3. Any oil supply disruption can send oil up $10+ instantly. Weather, terrorism, etc.

    Working against the price of crude is largely the strength of the dollar, and that more than anything I can see supressing oil prices.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Thanks for the perspective. Do you see us entering a more serious world-wide recession that causes oil consumption to go down? I think rather than buying at $40 I'd probably target a very short term overshoot to the $35 area to do a buy. Where do you see prices stabilizing?

    I don't see necessarily $100 oil coming back any time soon, but $70-80, and that's based on a few things:
    1. Any commodity really can't sustain a price that far below production costs for long. I think a worldwide average production cost is around $70-80/bbl.
    2. The "oversupply" of oil is only about 3%. If new supplies stop coming online to replace depleted supplies and consumption worldwide stays level or keeps increasing, the oversupply disappears pretty quickly.
    3. Any oil supply disruption can send oil up $10+ instantly. Weather, terrorism, etc.

    Working against the price of crude is largely the strength of the dollar, and that more than anything I can see supressing oil prices. >>




    Oil was about $15-20 for almost the entire decade of the 90s. What was the production cost then? Do you think costs are 4x higher today then then? IMO, the stated production costs are exaggerated and probably closer to 45-55.

    In the commodity market, even the addition of just one extra unit can have a huge impact on prices. 3% oversupply might not seem like much but it is. Yes, any disruption could easily send gold 20% higher in just weeks, or a week. With prices where they are now, is there really any difference between $45 and $55? To a trader on the right side at the right time it could be huge, but to the economy, it means virtually nothing. There really is nothing to indicate an increase in demand in the foreseeable future either.

    The drop in oil has been heavily influenced by the rise in the dollar. And unless interest rates in countries that have currencies that compete with the dollar rise dramatically (while rates here do not) then the dollar will continue to be strong.

    I dont think oil will be $100 again for at least another 5-10 years and I really dont think any higher than 65 in the next 2---and hopefully thats in the next week since I went long some oil this afternoon. image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>It's worth mentioning crude oil. I think it could go a bit lower and hit $40. I think this is a no-lose situation ... >>


    Lol, sounds like Steve Stevens... Call 1-800- ... Gamblers anonymous...
    keceph `anah
  • TomohawkTomohawk Posts: 667 ✭✭
    Pretty junior to you guys on the oil question, but thought I'd chime in:

    The oil game seems to me to be a pretty simple: "How low are you willing to go?" game the Saudis are playing. I realize WW demand has dropped off at least a little, and given the US increase in production capacity, the Saudis aren't in control as much as before: they are still able to make the market react to their strategies. I saw a report tonight that a Saudi prince claims "$100 oil never again." That statement gives me pause, for sure, as they are very capable of driving oil to levels where they maintain their historic market share, even if that share requires the price to drop to $20/bbl.

    I again realize we're in a whole new world here, but even with $45-$55 real production numbers for most of the rest of the world, whether you're talking shale, sand or straight drilling; you can't beat the Saudi's $10/bbl stated cost of getting the oil out of the ground. I really think that is going to influence oil for the rest of my life (40 year more?). Sure, there will be big gaps up and down, as well as demand-driven spikes; but I am thinking (well, hoping) that we'll see $50/bbl as a high for the next several years.

    Toss in alternative energy advances (they are coming, even if a bit slow), more oil "discoveries" that extend world-wide supplies for more decades, and a really sincere dislike we Americans have for paying $3+ (heck, $2+) for a gallon of go juice...you've got a picture of a pretty extended "slump" for oil.

    I've toyed with the idea of jumping in on oil...with all the piles of cash I have from my extended unemployment tour (evaluating a new job, BTW...have to move to China, though). I'm now sitting it out, thinking there might be $$ to be made, but probably not in the "get-rich-quick" thoughts I was having when I saw oil fall through $70/bbl.

    Be interested in seeing where the debate goes, though...
    ASE Addict...but oh so poor!
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    All The talk of "production costs" is déjà vu to the metals, lol, down, down, down..... The ring of fire, the ring of fire...
    keceph `anah
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>All The talk of "production costs" is déjà vu to the metals, lol, down, down, down..... The ring of fire, the ring of fire... >>



    The POG has held (so far) at what is regarded to be the production cost.

    Update on positions:
    Closed my short SP500 position first thing this morning for a VERY nice gain. I'm going to see what happens with SP500 but I am looking to short it again next week. I think stocks are in real trouble.

    Also glad I added to my gold position, still would like to see gold get over $1240 decisively though. Looks like it will bounce between $1225 and 1240 today.
  • guitarwesguitarwes Posts: 9,237 ✭✭✭
    Very nice call (or luck, whichever) on the S&P drop.

    What do you like to play on your S&P shorts or VIX volitility?

    @ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work.
    Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Very nice call (or luck, whichever) on the S&P drop.

    What do you like to play on your S&P shorts or VIX volitility? >>



    My preference is futures since the gain or loss is so easy and transparent and it trades 23h/d (as opposed to options where the price changes based on several factors and it's harder to set advanced buy/sell orders and it only trades part of the day). In this case I used options though. I don't trade VIX in any way.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I prefer futures since the pricing is straightforward and it trades 23h/day. In this case I used options. I don't play volatility, although I probably should.

    Looks like gold is on its way, finally some good separation from $1225, we should be done there. This should be the kickoff of what will be at least a $200 move.

    I think you guys talked me out of the crude oil play I was considering. Still, I think downside is limited if you get a buy at $35 or so and can hold it a while, and a $10 move will make you $10k per contract.

    For SP500, I'm looking to short any rally to the 2030-2040 area.


  • << <i>
    ...
    Update on positions:
    Closed my short SP500 position first thing this morning for a VERY nice gain. I'm going to see what happens with SP500 but I am looking to short it again next week. I think stocks are in real trouble.

    Also glad I added to my gold position, still would like to see gold get over $1240 decisively though. Looks like it will bounce between $1225 and 1240 today. >>



    Wow, you certainly have a hot hand, big winner short /ES and another big up move today in /GC.

    I took a loss this morning on Best Buy (BBY), where I was short strangles (short both puts and calls) and it tumbled on a weak outlook. Overall, I am holding my own.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Found out that today's move in gold was sparked by Switzerland's currency un-pegging. I think the match is lit and we could be in for more immediate upside. I'm looking to add to my position - just a little - on what I hope to be a pullback tonight to $1252. I think this is the event that will really change the energy in the gold market (and others). But I am still cautious... gold has fooled me before.
  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Yea watchout, I call fake move in gold, based on volume, pretty interesting...
    keceph `anah
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Didn't get filled last night, about $3.20 too low. Bummer.
    Just thought I would point this out for those who remember the recent gold volatility discussion from last year's thread.
    Which way did gold go to cause this spike in vol?
    image
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The Swiss pegged the CHF to the EURO in Sept 2011, exactly at the gold price peak. Talk about coincidence.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • Just sold the "protective" call on last month's short and made more money than I did on the futures trade itself. What a strange way to make money.
    Salute the automobile: The greatest anti-pollution device in human history!
    (Just think of city streets clogged with a hundred thousand horses each generating 15 lbs of manure every day...)
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I saw the end-of-day stock rally with SP500 hitting about 2013. It might be a gamble, but I bought a few short puts as I think next week will see more blood, although there's a decent change Monday might see more recovery.
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My short puts from last week are up slightly. I added more today, the next week is going to be tough for stocks. The ECB's going to announce a plan this week, and I think it's going to be a big negative.

    Meanwhile I think it's safe to say that the energy in gold has finally flipped. We should be in for much more upside for the rest of the year. I have been having trouble finding a spot to add to my position.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    bought DSLV at 47.73.

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>bought DSLV at 47.73. >>



    Interesting play now that silver is at a 16 week high ($18.02) and starting to nibble on the Sept 18th candle where it dropped from $18.50 to $17.60 in one day. But the SOTUA, new moon, and the $1300 gold barrier could provide some cover. The $1.50 gold gap at $1304 back from the mid-August push down is a strong pull. I suspect that gets filled before this recent rally ends.

    Lots of room up to the SLV weekly cloud

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • OperationButterOperationButter Posts: 1,672 ✭✭✭


    << <i>bought DSLV at 47.73. >>



    Good luck!

    I opt'd for the physical purchase vs ira purchase this time around.
    Gold is for savings. Fiat is for transactions.



    BST Transactions (as the seller): Collectall, GRANDAM, epcjimi1, wondercoin, jmski52, wheathoarder, jay1187, jdsueu, grote15, airplanenut, bigole
  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Bot the NUGT trade again at end of last year after a long absence. Up almost 100% so far. My mouse is almost on the sell button.... but keeps gapping higher. Any traders out there see a resistance level??
    GLTA
    email: ccacollectibles@yahoo.com

    100% Positive BST transactions
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    GDX is fighting with strong price x volume bar right here at $23.00. If it can get through it with a $1300 gold pop, then it might be able to run further. On the weekly chart all that "air" from $19-$23 has been retraced. GDX weekly resistance cloud is in the upper $24's and right around where the bottom of the 1 year triangle would provide resistance....making that both a "pull" as well as a high resistance target range. GDX has tagged the weekly upper BB which has been the end point for all of the rallies in 2013-2104....but, they have so far given a 2nd touch of the line before leaving.

    Today could possibly be a recognition day where the neckline of the 3 month gdx "W" pattern breaks out. It projects up to $26-$27. Big 2.5% gap up at $26.67. So while GDX has run into resistances here, the bigger picture suggests more potential. Definitely not a bad idea taking 1/3 to 1/2 off the table on this trade. The PM sector might be aiming for a peak to coincide with the ECB QE announcement. Davos this week as well. Next week is the usual FOMC/OpEx crapola.

    Weekly BB hit but bands are flaring open too

    PV weekly chart

    Bottom of 2014 triangle runs into upper weekly cloud just under $25.00
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭✭✭
    SOLD half of my NUGT position today after a good run from the $9's to the $20's. Still Long NEM,GG,HL,PAAS, CDE,AAUKY,NILSY,NGD image
    3X leveraged ETF's are risky . Do your own research please!!
    email: ccacollectibles@yahoo.com

    100% Positive BST transactions
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    GREAT trade metalmeister!!!
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • Sold some GLD strangles today for March expiration. For those that don't trade options, that is a bet on a trading range for GLD. In my case, I have about 13% up or down before pain starts to become acute. This is a high probability trade, low risk, low reward. The downsides are that the margin requirements are relatively high for a small amount of premium, and if GLD crashes or goes to the moon, losses can become huge.

    Why would anyone risk a huge loss for a tiny gain? Again, high probability, and a pretty good annualized rate of return. Using a roulette analogy, the guy betting on 00 wins huge if his number comes up, but the odds are strong in favor of the house. The way out of the money call buyers and put buyers are very much like the guy betting on 00, long odds, but the possibility of a big payoff if they hit it.



  • bidaskbidask Posts: 13,834 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Sold some GLD strangles today for March expiration. For those that don't trade options, that is a bet on a trading range for GLD. In my case, I have about 13% up or down before pain starts to become acute. This is a high probability trade, low risk, low reward. The downsides are that the margin requirements are relatively high for a small amount of premium, and if GLD crashes or goes to the moon, losses can become huge.

    Why would anyone risk a huge loss for a tiny gain? Again, high probability, and a pretty good annualized rate of return. Using a roulette analogy, the guy betting on 00 wins huge if his number comes up, but the odds are strong in favor of the house. The way out of the money call buyers and put buyers are very much like the guy betting on 00, long odds, but the possibility of a big payoff if they hit it. >>

    I have seen to many of those 'high probabilty' trades blow up to ever take that kind of risk.
    I manage money. I earn money. I save money .
    I give away money. I collect money.
    I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.




  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It turns out I got in a little early on my short ES (SP500) position but I did add to my position at 2030. With the ECB announcement there is going to be a lot price movement. I bet there will be spikes higher and then lower. I can't imagine any announcement the ECB could make that will be good for US stocks, as I think the energy mix has changed and no Euro QE will be bad and big Euro QE will also be bad. We shall see. I don't have any stops, I plan to let ride the wild swings.

    I was finally able to add to my gold position on the dip today as well as roll forward to the April contract. Immediate term I'm looking for $1310-1330 before a likely retracement, unless I get surprised tomorrow and ECB news sends gold down for some reason.


  • << <i>

    << <i>Sold some GLD strangles today for March expiration. For those that don't trade options, that is a bet on a trading range for GLD. In my case, I have about 13% up or down before pain starts to become acute. This is a high probability trade, low risk, low reward. The downsides are that the margin requirements are relatively high for a small amount of premium, and if GLD crashes or goes to the moon, losses can become huge.

    Why would anyone risk a huge loss for a tiny gain? Again, high probability, and a pretty good annualized rate of return. Using a roulette analogy, the guy betting on 00 wins huge if his number comes up, but the odds are strong in favor of the house. The way out of the money call buyers and put buyers are very much like the guy betting on 00, long odds, but the possibility of a big payoff if they hit it. >>

    I have seen to many of those 'high probabilty' trades blow up to ever take that kind of risk. >>



    Thank you for your comment. Options are not for every one. I'd guess maybe about 10% of individual stock market participants do anything with options, and most of them only do conservative strategies. Yes, sometimes the high probability trades blow up. Those that read my trading blog (signature link) have read about some of my huge percentage losses. Yes, the roulette ball sometimes does land on 00. Otherwise no one would ever bet on that. If a trader isn't prepared to pay out the long shot, sometimes at long shot odds, they aren't ready to sell the naked options.

    That said, all those huge casinos in Las Vegas were built by being on the right side of the odds. All those betting on 00 and similar poor odds bets are the ones that paid for all that construction and overhead. Over the long run, we are all dead, but until then, I enjoy being on the right side of the odds and will continue to take money from the 00 side.

    Let me add, that it is ironic that you, the finance industry professional, singled out my conservative low risk, low reward trade to reply to. This thread has folks trading triple leveraged ETFs, buying options, and trading futures on full margin. Of those reporting actual trades, I am almost certainly the most timid, most conservative, some would say "chicken" trader posting.


  • guitarwesguitarwes Posts: 9,237 ✭✭✭


    << <i>bought DSLV at 47.73. >>



    Hey derryb, still have your DSLV???? image

    @ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work.
    Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    yepper

    The decline from democracy to tyranny is both a natural and inevitable one.

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I mis-timed my previous call. Stocks are fully loaded with energy and ready for another trend here, and it looks like Tuesday will be the breakout day. The late-day rally on Monday would have us believe think that the rally may continue upward. Currently the SP500 futures are around 2015. The 2010-2020 area have provided support and resistance for a while. A downside target is 1920. I have no projections to the upside.

    Here's the daily chart:
    image
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Stocks are fully loaded with energy and ready for another trend here, and it looks like Tuesday will be the breakout day.

    Good call. image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • rawteam1rawteam1 Posts: 2,472 ✭✭✭
    Hmm maybe I can make some money here , keep those calls comin PC...
    keceph `anah
  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 5,320 ✭✭✭✭✭
    SP500 looks like it is set to keep going up for about another month to set new all-time highs. We'll know more then, but surely this cannot sustain after what should be an incredible 4-5 more weeks?

    image
  • bluelobsterbluelobster Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭
    Interesting action in the VIX which is reverting/collapsing back to its flat line state. Fear on the back burner for now.
  • RedTigerRedTiger Posts: 5,608
    I had to go to page 5 to resurrect this trading thread. During the halycon bull market days there was a new thread every month, and posts nearly every day, some days with multiple posts. Now with the bear market, it is near a month, since the last post, and I don't know how long since anyone actually posted a trade report.

    Anyway, back in January I sold some short strangles in GLD (selling short both puts and calls, which is a bet on a trading range). On Friday 3/13, I close the trade for a tiny profit. I might be able to swing a Happy Meal at McDonalds with my profits image For now I only have a tiny long position in GDX (short puts) which looks to come in at a profit, when they expire this Friday 3/20. At that point, I will have no trading positions in gold or mining stocks, and will look for a better setup.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,553 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yup, gotta like the apathy RedTiger.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,303 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Apathy here doesn't equate to apathy everywhere else. Times change. The 3 PM blogs I visit daily are quite active, as much now as in 2011. And there are certainly as many bears as there are bulls.
    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
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