Don't sell at $50

vpr · October 30, 2014 12:42PM

It will be the absolute worst time to sell. Bull markets love to smash through walls of worry. The $50 mark will bring back bitter memories for a lot of folks. Once we take out 50, the market will just race higher.

I like to plan for the future. : )

derryb · October 30, 2014 12:47PM

you young fellas have that luxury.

MGLICKER · October 30, 2014 12:55PM

Silver or Gold?

Barndog · October 30, 2014 12:55PM

good points both of you!

vpr · October 30, 2014 1:12PM

<< Silver or Gold? >>

I could then finally afford a 400 oz "standard" bar, just like the big boys.

rawteam1 · October 30, 2014 2:11PM

Lol, the future,...already was...

TwoSides2aCoin · October 30, 2014 8:04PM

Some collect coins. Some speculate on tomorrow. Some died already. Buy/Sell/Trade…. often. It's just fun. All this worry, speculating, finding the low , the high , when to enter…if one should… Relative to reality , my question is :
Why buy bullish!t at any price ?

The market thrives despite what we type , think, or do.

BLUEJAYWAY · October 30, 2014 8:24PM

We ride the coattails of the rich, well connected/informed.

jmski52 · October 30, 2014 8:39PM

Once we take out 50, the market will just race higher.

Could be, but how much higher? And when?

I agree with your attitude of planning for the future and "being ready". Now, look beyond the price point you might have in mind and tell me what else to do. Life does go on from there (hopefully).

PerryHall · October 30, 2014 8:47PM

<< Lol, the future,...already was... >>

Good point. Thanks for reminding us there is a prescedent for $50 silver.

cohodk · November 2, 2014 1:33AM

Once we take out 50, the market will just race higher

I agree. The parabolic move probably takes it to $125-150. Timing is probably when I sign up for Social Security.

ricko · November 2, 2014 2:55AM

Interesting.... silver falling and discussion goes to $50+.....

Cheers, RickO

derryb · November 2, 2014 3:04AM

I previously predicted $50 but was proven wrong because if fell a couple of bucks short. So I have no problem declaring that if/when it sees $50 it will breeze right on up to $100. I'm 60 years old and feel confident I will live to sell at $100. If I did not believe this I would not continue to buy. I'm still buying.

cohodk · November 2, 2014 3:16AM

<< I previously predicted $50 but was proven wrong because if fell a couple of bucks short. So I have no problem declaring that if/when it sees $50 it will breeze right on up to $100. I'm 60 years old and feel confident I will live to sell at $100. If I did not believe this I would not continue to buy. I'm still buying. >>

A person of age 60 today is expected to live to 81. I suspect your confidence will be realized. 10% per year for the next 20 years gets $110. I suspect the bulk of the gains will be heavily skewed toward the latter years however. How much fun will it be to be 81 years old and finally see $110 silver, only to die the next day?

derryb · November 2, 2014 3:21AM

<< 

<< I previously predicted $50 but was proven wrong because if fell a couple of bucks short. So I have no problem declaring that if/when it sees $50 it will breeze right on up to $100. I'm 60 years old and feel confident I will live to sell at $100. If I did not believe this I would not continue to buy. I'm still buying. >>

A person of age 60 today is expected to live to 81. I suspect your confidence will be realized. 10% per year for the next 20 years gets $110. I suspect the bulk of the gains will be heavily skewed toward the latter years however. How much fun will it be to be 81 years old and finally see $110 silver, only to die the next day? >>

I suspect the next cause, a currency crisis, is much closer than do you. Silver will not climb to $100, it will explode to $100. It will do so before I'm 70, and very possibly before I'm 65.

cohodk · November 2, 2014 3:31AM

Agreed, once it clears 50 it will go to 100 within a year perhaps. But to just get to $50 from here requires a triple , or 25% per year for the next 5 years. Highly unlikely.

mrpaseo · November 2, 2014 3:57AM

Ummmm.... sold at $50+ a few years back when the market peaked. Been catching daggers all the way down...lol. My objective was met, sell at a profit and use the money for X.

My normal route in buy on the way down... wait... sell on the way up.... No way to time it so just keep on stacking

ARCO · November 2, 2014 4:26AM

Anybody know anybody that has gotten rich "waiting" for metal prices to rise? I haven't. A stabilized $50 silver means that gas is $10 a gallon and most of us are in depends diapers.

I have watched silver since I was an 11 year old kid (36 years). I remember buying a silver dollar for $30.00 when silver was at its $30-$35 range in the late 70's. Inflation hedge you say? Here is what Gold and silver do: turn "worthless fiat" (as the metal-bugs like to call it), into even less worthless fiat.

I will buy silver when it is below $6 and gold under $600. Till then I am keeping my useless fiat dollars out of harm's way.

Tyler

rawteam1 · November 2, 2014 4:34AM

<< Anybody know anybody that has gotten rich "waiting" for metal prices to rise? I haven't. A stabilized $50 silver means that gas is $10 a gallon and most of us are in depends diapers.

Tyler >>

Those that sold...

And what on earth, as in evidence would lead you to 50/10? Another ratio like GSR ?...

TwoSides2aCoin · November 2, 2014 5:33AM

A friend of mine bought about an ounce of silver recently for $38,000.00. For one silver dollar. As precious metal is concerned, that's .775 times spot = ? $(s). I wonder if he would sell at $38,050. Probably not because he would just laugh at me if I asked.

BAJJERFAN · November 2, 2014 5:52AM

<< A friend of mine bought about an ounce of silver recently for $38,000.00. For one silver dollar. As precious metal is concerned, that's .775 times spot = ? $(s). I wonder if he would sell at $38,050. Probably not because he would just laugh at me if I asked. >>

Those things aren't even close to a full ounce of silver are they?

Baley · November 2, 2014 6:47AM

you bet your ass I'll sell some silver at 38 and 42 and 47 if I live to see those prices again. you know they dig it out of the ground at $12-15/oz, right?

rawteam1 · November 2, 2014 7:35AM

<< you bet your ass I'll sell some silver at 38 and 42 and 47 if I live to see those prices again. you know they dig it out of the ground at $12-15/oz, right? >>

Those prices and higher are to be had now, except you most likely don't have any of that silver...
What they dig it out for is meaningless... All that matters is what one will pay you 4 it...

roadrunner · November 2, 2014 7:37AM

<< I previously predicted $50 but was proven wrong because if fell a couple of bucks short. So I have no problem declaring that if/when it sees $50 it will breeze right on up to $100. I'm 60 years old and feel confident I will live to sell at $100. If I did not believe this I would not continue to buy. I'm still buying. >>

Don't sell yourself short. Your prediction got within 22c (high of $49.786 via Netdania). Some other sources may have actually hit $50.00.

roadrunner · November 2, 2014 7:50AM

<< Agreed, once it clears 50 it will go to 100 within a year perhaps. But to just get to $50 from here requires a triple , or 25% per year for the next 5 years. Highly unlikely. >>

Silver did better than 25%/yr in <5 yrs twice in the 1970's. Twice it went up 100% in <6 months. 1971-1974 (200% in barely over 2 years). 1974-1980 (>1000% in barely over 5 yrs). Both of those would qualify as an average of 25%/yr for 5 years. One was 3X and the other 12X. The entire move from 1932-1980 was a 200X increase or approx 8% yoy for 48 years. Certainly periods where silver was flat or declining were offset by those other periods where 25% yoy/5 yrs had to occur.

If the next major move up in silver is Major wave 3 (wave 1 was from 1993-2011, wave 2 from 2011-????), it will likely move a LOT faster than wave 1 did. The 5 wave pattern in silver from approx 1962-1980 also shows a much faster move during the 3rd wave (1968-1974). The 5th wave was the parabolic blow off. Silver basically advanced from 25c in 1932 to $50 in 1980....a 48 year move.

A simpler way to see this is that silver has formed a 34 year cup formation and is now adding on the handle since 2011. When that $50 neckline breaks, the move will likely be quite dramatic. This is a very powerful formation. While there's no way to know how long it will take to get to $50, the odds are good that once it does (and maybe even back tests that initial break), the following move will be breathtaking. Silver formed a silver cup w/handle/inverted head and shoulders pattern in 2008-2009. It took 22 months to get back to the $20 neckline.....and 4 months to run up to $31/oz....slightly above the projection of that pattern. It didn't stop there though and covered another $19 in the next 4 months. I'd call a 50% move in 4 months followed by another 60% move in 4 months to be somewhat rapid.

Silver from 1965-1980 chartsrus.com

roadrunner · November 2, 2014 7:55AM

<< Anybody know anybody that has gotten rich "waiting" for metal prices to rise? I haven't. A stabilized $50 silver means that gas is $10 a gallon and most of us are in depends diapers.

I have watched silver since I was an 11 year old kid (36 years). I remember buying a silver dollar for $30.00 when silver was at its $30-$35 range in the late 70's. Inflation hedge you say? Here is what Gold and silver do: turn "worthless fiat" (as the metal-bugs like to call it), into even less worthless fiat.

I will buy silver when it is below $6 and gold under $600. Till then I am keeping my useless fiat dollars out of harm's way.

Tyler >>

Silver went to $50 in 1980, and other commodities didn't follow. I doubt very much that a stable $50 silver will result in $10 gas. Many people stated in the early 1970's that they didn't want to live in a world with $100, $200 or even higher gold prices. Well, it got to $875 in 1980 and the world didn't collapse. The same stuff was heard in 2004-2007...."we don't want to live in a world with $1,000 gold." Well, we were there from 2009-2014 and the world hasn't fallen apart yet. Gas prices in the US have stayed under $5 the whole time. The prices of precious metals are often quite disconnected from most other commodities.

roadrunner · November 2, 2014 8:00AM

<< you bet your ass I'll sell some silver at 38 and 42 and 47 if I live to see those prices again. you know they dig it out of the ground at $12-15/oz, right? >>

Most silver miners today dig out out of the ground at a "all-in" cost of $18-$30/oz with most in the lower to mid $20's. Most seem to be flat lining or losing money. They wish they were digging it out of the ground at $12-$15/oz. It is true that the Royalty streamers could be as low as $8-$12/oz ave price on their contracts with the silver miners. I don't know of a single intermediate or senior silver miner (or a gold miner with significant silver production) that has an all-in silver cost of $12-$15/oz. While they might report a "by-product" cost at that level or lower, that is not their all-in cost.

Don't sell at $50

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