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Silver's future?
cohodk
Posts: 18,621 ✭✭✭✭✭
Most people look backwards when looking at charts. I prefer to look forward.
Any thoughts?
Any thoughts?
Excuses are tools of the ignorant
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
0
cohodk
Posts: 18,621 ✭✭✭✭✭
Comments
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I like the potential of buying silver for $19 in 2021 and riding it to $50+ by 2025.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Its a 200 week ave but works just the same in a weekly chart. The average is flattening. Weak RSI is a sign of a bear market, just as the strong RSI was a sign of a bull.
I like the potential of buying silver for $19 in 2021 and riding it to $50+ by 2025. >>
Average is flattening just as it was before the $49 spike. Question is however, where is this MA trend pointing - up or down?
Low RSI is a sign of oversold. Watching this RSI closely could result in a nice payday. Unfortunately, telling the future with charts is heavily dependent upon market forces not being intoxicated by outside influence.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Before the spike to $49, the price was above the average, now it is below. The MA is sideways and since the price is $9 below this moving average for 50 weeks, the average will begin to turn lower.
Low RSI is a sign of oversold. Watching this RSI closely could result in a nice payday. Unfortunately, telling the future with charts is heavily dependent upon market forces not being intoxicated by outside influence
Bull markets do not get oversold. Yes, there could be a nice trade back to $25, but the blah market will continue.
heavily dependent upon market forces not being intoxicated by outside influence
You emotional opinion, shown by your choice of words, is influencing a pragmatic approach to technical analysis. The incorporation of emotion into technical analysis always results in poor performance. This is why 99% of people cant read charts.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
You emotional opinion, shown by your choice of words, is influencing a pragmatic approach to technical analysis. The incorporation of emotion into technical analysis always results in poor performance. This is why 99% of people cant read charts.
Chart work is important, but few adjust for an unstable money supply as we are witnessing currently.
Arrogance is another cause of inaccurate chart reading. You assume the market is not as smart as you. As Julia Roberts said in Pretty Woman, "Big mistake. Huge."
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>You emotional opinion, shown by your choice of words, is influencing a pragmatic approach to technical analysis. The incorporation of emotion into technical analysis always results in poor performance. This is why 99% of people cant read charts. >>
Yepper, economic policy, free money, greed and corruption in the two cities that matter and zero percent interest rates are just a figment of my emotions.
Not recognizing these influences is what results in poor performance.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i> few adjust for an unstable money supply
Arrogance is another cause of inaccurate chart reading. You assume the market is not as smart as you. As Julia Roberts said in Pretty Woman, "Big mistake. Huge." >>
Your attacks are regrettable and unflattering to your otherwise quality posts.
What would a chart of Saudi gas look like in that nation? It is heavily subsidized and fixed by the House of Saud. Similar with US sugar which maintains a government mandated floor.
The pre AIG bailout chart would have been worthless. Same with a Ford chart. Though not a bailout recipient, a failure of GM, Chrysler and many suppliers may have doomed them as well.
Our markets are heavily manipulated (sorry, influenced) by the US government and make many charts moving forward worth less than the digital parchment that they are printed on.
Im not quite sure what points you are trying to make with the other comments.
Chart reading is pattern recognition. Ideas such as manipulation, conspiracy and fundamentals have already been computed and analyzed (long before us peons) by the market and incorporated into pricing.
Silver is the same price as 6 years ago and since we've have money printing and the USA lost its AAA rating. Those "facts" were supposed to make silver stackers rich. Silver needs a new impetus to reach new highs. What will it be this time? And what will be the timing of this new impetus? What I read in the charts is that on one knows what it will be but it wont be anytime soon.
Remove the hatred, contempt, fear, loathing, jealousy, anguish, ect from technical analysis (and life) and things become much more clear and enjoyable.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Not recognizing these influences is what results in poor performance.
Nope, not figments of your imagination. This is just information that is already incorporated into pricing. There has been greed and corruption everywhere (not just 2 cities) since 1776. Your notion was true 5 years ago yet silver has been a miserable investment.
Regarding the chart I posted, whats wrong with a sideways trading range from 15 to 25 over the next 5 years?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
Regarding the chart I posted, whats wrong with a sideways trading range from 15 to 25 over the next 5 years? >>
The only thing that comes to mind is that this forum will become boring with sideways trading...LOL
Joking aside, I have no clue on how to read a chart but I have a question (a silly one).
Now that you have all the "future" info, would the charts of 2008-2009 (or any year prior) have indicated the spike to $49?
Just curious, since it was exponential...
Thanks!
<< <i>Now that you have all the "future" info, would the charts of 2008-2009 (or any year prior) have indicated the spike to $49?
Just curious, since it was exponential...
Thanks! >>
No, but they can predict sideways movement.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>Silver is the same price as 6 years ago and since we've have money printing and the USA lost its AAA rating. >>
....and silver is 6 times above its 20 year low. 20 times its 50 year low.
Objective of investing is to go long on under priced assets and short (for the more advanced) on overpriced assets.
I am agnostic on $20 silver and for that matter $1300 gold in the short term. Both have made substantial upward adjustments to the large deficit spending of the last dozen years.
A fivefold increase in money supply in 6 years though leads me to think that this free money that is now swirling through equities and debt instruments will spill over into commodities.
Not considering the current and future supply of the currency that your charts are measured is foolish and reckless.
Similar to considering travel time in a sailboat while ignoring the wind speed.
<< <i>Your notion was true 5 years ago yet silver has been a miserable investment. >>
Not for a knowledgable investor.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>
<< <i>Your notion was true 5 years ago yet silver has been a miserable investment. >>
Not for a knowledgable investor. >>
...or the short player.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I just look at one ounce of silver in one hand and a $20 bill in the other hand and all I can think of is "I'd much rather have the one ounce of silver".
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
<< <i>
<< <i>
Regarding the chart I posted, whats wrong with a sideways trading range from 15 to 25 over the next 5 years? >>
The only thing that comes to mind is that this forum will become boring with sideways trading...LOL
Joking aside, I have no clue on how to read a chart but I have a question (a silly one).
Now that you have all the "future" info, would the charts of 2008-2009 (or any year prior) have indicated the spike to $49?
Just curious, since it was exponential...
Thanks! >>
Yes, the run from 20 to 31 could have been measured and expected (as someone mentioned in Aug 2010)
As is clear in the chart, silver is right on a very steep downtrend. It has to break very soon so it either continue down along the trendline which would be a very violent, but short-lived event, taking it to the $14 area. This will be where you would back up the truck as it would mark a test of the long-term uptrend. The steep downtrend from $49 would be broken on the subsequent bounce which would go to $20 and perhaps even as high as 25, at which point it would retrace the rally down to 20 and continue the 20 to 25 and then 25 to 35 consolidation over then next several years.
I am NOT making a prediction that silver will go to $14, however if it does, I will be committing a large percentage of my assets to it. We will know in the next month if silver is going to get its capitulation plunge, or just continue to plod along from 20-25.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Your notion was true 5 years ago yet silver has been a miserable investment. >>
Not for a knowledgable investor. >>
Thank you for the compliment.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>It has to go 'up'. >>
Nothing has to go up, but Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen have certainly guaranteed that the $20 has to go down in value.
<< <i>
<< <i>It has to go 'up'. >>
Nothing has to go up, but Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen have certainly guaranteed that the $20 has to go down in value. >>
Not to worry, they are making a whole lot more of them available.
It is the inverse relationship between twenties and ounces that will ensure gold does go up. While the naysayers would have you focus on the decline from the speculator driven, overbought peak of $1800+ in 2011, focus on the fact that gold is currently up 175% since the crisis of 2008. Gold remains in a long term bull market because those twenties are in an irreversible long term bear market. The temporary demand for those twenties is based on a powerful public relations program that will see the light of truth.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I knew it would happen.
<< <i> focus on the fact that gold is currently up 175% since the crisis of 2008 >>
where did you get those numbers? gold isnt even up 100% from the actual low in 2008, and thats the low, which isnt even tradeable $681.10...
in 2008 it prolly avg price was over $900 , with only 1 significant down month which was really meaningless as it closed higher next month...
its really more like up 40% since 2008...
<< <i>
<< <i> focus on the fact that gold is currently up 175% since the crisis of 2008 >>
where did you get those numbers? gold isnt even up 100% from the actual low in 2008, and thats the low, which isnt even tradeable $681.10...
in 2008 it prolly avg price was over $900 , with only 1 significant down month which was really meaningless as it closed higher next month...
its really more like up 40% since 2008... >>
$734 on 11/17/08, $1288 today. 100% of $734 is $734. $1288 is 175% of $734. Gold is 175% of what it was in 2008. If gold price doubles it is 200% of what it was. However, you are correct. While gold is 175% of what it was in 2008 it is up 75%. I stand corrected. What I meant and what I should have said is that the price of gold is 175% of what it was in 2008.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Thats the kind of spin one would hear in a blog. Well done.
Or we could say that nat gas, oil, coffee, orange juice, coffee, lumber, cattle, pigs, copper, palladium, sugar, oats, and soybeans are all up MORE than gold in that timeframe. Gold = eidolon?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>What I meant and what I should have said is that the price of gold is 175% of what it was in 2008.
Thats the kind of spin one would hear in a blog. Well done.
Yet silver has more than doubled since 2008 (up 105%). Like I said in an earlier post trend lines are heavily dependent on where one picks his points on the chart. Silver and gold remain in their long term trend despite the speculator driven spike that always corrects itself.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
This is part of the answer to "silver's future."
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Silver and gold WILL go higher. They always have. But so have all other major asset classes. And all assets can sit and lose value relative to others for extended periods of time. My chart clearly points out a long term uptrend. Those who think gold and silver will be at new highs in the next year or two will be severely disappointed and it is entirely possible that PMs could underperform other assets over the next decade. Folks on this board who are in their mid 60's could very well be in their mid-70s to 80 before silver breaks $50.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i> Folks on this board who are in their mid 60's could very well be in their mid-70s to 80 before silver breaks $50. >>
...or they could be in their mid 60's when silver breaks $50. Or they may be ninety before it does.
Not impossible to imagine that silver which hit $49.50 a few years ago could pop over $50 in another year or two. Especially with $50,000,000,000 per month in soft raw cash being pumped out by the fed.
I am not suggesting that it will, but it certainly is possible.
Well, I think it unreasonable to imagine. Afterall, hasnt the FED been doing this for the last 5 years? You, and many others
Silver started moving up well before QE and it started moving lower well before QE slowed. The market is always smarter and faster than us.
The loss of the USA's AAA credit status was supposed to push prices higher. China filling their coffers was supposed to push prices higher. Foreign govts dumping treasuries was supposed to kill the dollar. What happened? Does it not make you question the "supposed fundamentals"?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Edit: my money would be on nickel right now. It's starting it's move and I do believe Russia will withhold production to manipulate the market price.
<< <i>Does it not make you question the "supposed fundamentals"? >>
In a internationally rigged market, fundamentals often are to be disregarded.....for a while. The money printers and their puppet banks (or is it the other way around' have little interest in directing the spray of digital dollars towards precious metals. Interest is 1. Artificially depressing interest rates. 2. Bolstering an over bloated equities market. 3. Increasing home valuations.
The ripple of the initial wave of QE will indeed push up commodities as it has in the first 5 months of this year.
A fat woman on a diet of chicken fried cheesecake may initially gain weight on her hips, but eventually the stomach, legs and upper arms will catch up. Not a good visual I am sure, but the same thing happens with quantum increases in currency against a relatively stable basket of goods.
<< <i>Not impossible to imagine that silver which hit $49.50 a few years ago could pop over $50 in another year or two. Especially with $50,000,000,000 per month in soft raw cash being pumped out by the fed.
Well, I think it unreasonable to imagine. Afterall, hasnt the FED been doing this for the last 5 years? You, and many others
Silver started moving up well before QE and it started moving lower well before QE slowed. The market is always smarter and faster than us.
The loss of the USA's AAA credit status was supposed to push prices higher. China filling their coffers was supposed to push prices higher. Foreign govts dumping treasuries was supposed to kill the dollar. What happened? Does it not make you question the "supposed fundamentals"? >>
I'm with Cohodk. Especially for shorter term trading, if a market or stock or whatever doesn't move up on "good news" it is best to listen and learn. If all this QE all around the world can't push up metals, something else is going on, perhaps something I don't understand or misunderstand. Some will say it is manipulation. Whatever, the small fish will never know the real story about manipulation, and more than a few have been played by these stories spread by the big fish. What matters is market action. If it isn't acting the way I expect, then I am wrong. I won't continue to throw real money into a bucket of faulty assumptions.
Another example is the bond market. In the U.S., bonds are the best performing major asset class in calendar 2014. This is during the great taper. Half the pundits predicted a bond market crash for this time frame. Another half predicted bond market crash in 2012, including some on this thread. I am no financial Einstein, I was on along on that bearish bond band wagon. I wrote a blog post about shorting bonds being the trade of the 21st century over a year ago. That's all fine and dandy for entertainment purposes. Eventually bonds will move down and interest rates will move much higher. For now, only a fool would keep shorting bonds based on the great taper. Eventually the call will be right, but as one pundit put it, "don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes." To me, that means don't move the money until the market action confirms the move. It isn't all that different from silver and gold. Wait for market action to confirm a turn. That means missing the bottom, but only a few heroes (and the liars and hindsight traders) buy the bottom. For those few heroes, there are hundreds more that keep trying to call bottom and keep getting crushed as the primary market trend continues to grind them to dust.
The Dust...
<< <i>Yes...
The Dust... >>
Nice call.
<< <i>Whatever, the small fish will never know the real story about manipulation, and more than a few have been played by these stories spread by the big fish. >>
Very true.
Only a fool would play the bond market at all. The exception being the DC and Wall Street insiders that have direct contact will the federal reserve. I am still sickened by the White House meeting with 19 top bankers about a year ago. What pearls of wisdom were shared with the financial elite that were withheld from the average trader. So much for transparency.
Many international traders have gone broke shorting Japan 10 year notes which have lingered at under a 1% yield for nearly 20 years. The numbers defy all logic beyond the heavy influence that Japans closed and clandestine market applies to these instruments.
<< <i> I wrote a blog post about shorting bonds being the trade of the 21st century over a year ago. >>
Depending on when you made the call, it may have been quite successful as we saw an interest rate low of about 1.42% on the tens, jump to 3.00% before dropping back to 2.50 or so today.
In a internationally rigged market, fundamentals often are to be disregarded
You just dont get it.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
In a internationally rigged market, fundamentals often are to be disregarded
You just dont get it. >>
Oh c'mon Cohodk, the world waits now with bated breath at not only the words of Janet Yellen, but the measured voices of the frequently prognosticating fed governors. Yesterday Barrons listed a "Yellen speaks" notification for a commencement speech at a baseball stadium. A damn commencement address.
You want to remain married to your chart, good for you. Out guessing the fed and her $5 trillion balance sheet is now the only game in town.
<< <i>For now, only a fool would keep shorting bonds based on the great taper.
Only a fool would play the bond market at all. The exception being the DC and Wall Street insiders that have direct contact will the federal reserve. I am still sickened by the White House meeting with 19 top bankers about a year ago. What pearls of wisdom were shared with the financial elite that were withheld from the average trader. So much for transparency.
Many international traders have gone broke shorting Japan 10 year notes which have lingered at under a 1% yield for nearly 20 years. The numbers defy all logic beyond the heavy influence that Japans closed and clandestine market applies to these instruments. >>
You have your opinion. I have mine. I have no need to convince people of my point of view. Good luck to you in your financial adventures.
I am not on the forum to debate investment or trading decisions. I tend to be more interested in process. The more novices and public pundits on the other side of the trade, the better it tends to work out. Once in a while, this forum serves as a useful sentiment indicator. However, like most Internet investment forums, and the talking heads on TV, and magazine covers, the sentiment is more useful as a wrong-way indicator, with the best profits made by going opposite the popular opinion. The context for this forum is that normal readings are approximately:
80% of the forum are permabulls on metals,
60% are permabears on the U.S. stock market, maybe
80% have been permabears on the U.S. bond market.
Deviations from these readings are what gets interesting and can be useful information.
<< <i>80% of the forum are permabulls on metals, >>
Is that not to be expected on a precious metals forum? To gauge market sentiment I think that you would need a better sample, or perhaps measure the amount of activity on the forum from month to month.
Don't we all
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>It has to go 'up'.
I just look at one ounce of silver in one hand and a $20 bill in the other hand and all I can think of is "I'd much rather have the one ounce of silver". >>
... unless I actually want to purchase a good or service, and not tuck it away for "someday"
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
How has it done since Jan 1980?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Maybe some of the new mining capacity that was commissioned in 2010 and 2011 is coming on line, and supply is increasing.. what are they gonna do, mothball all the equipment and "unhire" all the workers now that the PM prices are back down? No, they're going to keep producing, because that's the way to amortize the losses over years instead of taking a write-off now.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i> If all this QE all around the world can't push up metals, something else is going on, perhaps something I don't understand or misunderstand.
Maybe some of the new mining capacity that was commissioned in 2010 and 2011 is coming on line, and supply is increasing.. what are they gonna do, mothball all the equipment and "unhire" all the workers now that the PM prices are back down? No, they're going to keep producing, because that's the way to amortize the losses over years instead of taking a write-off now. >>
Agree with you Baley. Silver was $5 an ounce a dozen years ago and seemed grossly underpriced. It was.
Today at $20, folks are chomping at the bit for it to increase. It will, I believe as the massive dollar production regurgitates, but some patience is in order as a fourfold move has already taken place.
<< <i>Yes...
The Dust... >>
Ouch!!! I used to wear white shorts...although in that era it was at least accepted!