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Poll: When will silver reach $50 again?
RedTiger
Posts: 5,608 ✭
When will silver reach $50 again? (Use the Kitco price.)
Is it another 30 years like 1980? Or more like the recent stock market action with a smash down from 2008 and a recovery in two years? Or somewhere in between?
Is it another 30 years like 1980? Or more like the recent stock market action with a smash down from 2008 and a recovery in two years? Or somewhere in between?
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<< <i>Once the Usama mania is over, people will remember the United States is in serious financial trouble. Silver will challenge $50/oz again this year. >>
THIS.
Once the Usama mania is over, people will remember that Ben Bernanke is a bigger threat to them personally than OBL ever was. Silver will challenge $50/oz again this year.
naturally come to the conclusion that a 10-30 yr silver blow off just occured. None of the other PM's went through such a change. Odd that gold would end with the
rounding top whimper last fall, followed by this meager surge to $1570 and then be done. No mania ending like silver. Can silver really end up in the doghouse
for years while the other metals continue to go up over the next few years?
Silver basically ran into a brick wall of margin increases at the $50 thirty year high. But that completed a massive 30 year cup formation that ultimately needed
a handle attached whether it was from hitting $60 first or just $49+. Once that handle is completed, then silver will start to target the price objective of that
cup (ie $95 on a linear chart, $380 on a log chart). But will that handle need to be several years long?
Another interesting point is that of the last 4 intermediate peaks in gold since spring 2006, the time to reach each peak is getting shorter each time.
If silver followed the straight line path from the 2006 and 2008 peaks, it would currently be at $33. And that was precisely the level that the current low came
in at. The GSR would equate to about 44. This early move down to a GSR 31....apparently all fluff. Hopefully, all those that were contemplating taking the "sucker"
bet of receiving 3 AGE's instead of a 100 oz silver bar.....did just that.
roadrunner
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
<< <i>I think Cohodk has mentioned this already on other threads. But just by looking at the price and volume action in silver over the past few weeks, one would
naturally come to the conclusion that a 10-30 yr silver blow off just occured. None of the other PM's went through such a change. Odd that gold would end with the
rounding top whimper last fall, followed by this meager surge to $1570 and then be done. No mania ending like silver. Can silver really end up in the doghouse
for years while the other metals continue to go up over the next few years?
Silver basically ran into a brick wall of margin increases at the $50 thirty year high. But that completed a massive 30 year cup formation that ultimately needed
a handle attached whether it was from hitting $60 first or just $49+. Once that handle is completed, then silver will start to target the price objective of that
cup (ie $95 on a linear chart, $380 on a log chart). But will that handle need to be several years long?
Another interesting point is that of the last 4 intermediate peaks in gold since spring 2006, the time to reach each peak is getting shorter each time.
If silver followed the straight line path from the 2006 and 2008 peaks, it would currently be at $33. And that was precisely the level that the current low came
in at. The GSR would equate to about 44. This early move down to a GSR 31....apparently all fluff. Hopefully, all those that were contemplating taking the "sucker"
bet of receiving 3 AGE's instead of a 100 oz silver bar.....did just that.
roadrunner >>
Well, I have a bunch @ $10 and $11 so I think I go to local store tomorrow and exchange for some gold..maybe all of it...what ya think roadrunner?........
I don't know about all those cups (30 year cup? Really?)needing handles and stuff. All I know it was an obvious bubble since the price simply rose too fast and it had to correct. Everyone that purchased when silver was at a realistic price, took a reasonable profit and sat on the sidelines is happy. Those that didn't may not be so happy. In another week or two we shall see if this is a bottom or not, if everything smooths out and looks realtively stable for a while it will be time to get back in for the long term. If the price stays very erratic some of us (me at least) will remain on the sidelines.
What gold did is really of no interest in a silver discussion except that it showed silver was in a bubble. Gold could still correct but it has not had quite as wild a ride up so may remain relatively stable in the $1400-$1600 range.
World Collection
British Collection
German States Collection
Silver basically ran into a brick wall of margin increases at the $50 thirty year high.
That's it in a nutshell, rr. The only question is when they decide to let it back out of the doghouse. At some point, the silver market will be one of their lesser worries and they will turn their attention to something else.
I knew it would happen.
On the other hand, there is also the consideration of China overheating/slowing down. Our focus here is generally U.S. economic issues (the Fed, etc.). But realize that a huge part of the commodities price increase the last few years is also due to rampant credit expansion in China. That has been a giant driver of prices of commodities across the board. If and when that bubble bursts, and it will burst, that will severely damage commodities prices, including most likely gold and silver.
I voted for two years. The silver move felt more like a "1987" type of stock market crash, than a final top in metals. The gold chart still looks constructive for bulls.
Q- Who are the new buyers both paper and physical going to be to take this back to $50? There is a TREMENDOUS amount of overhead resistance now. If it's going to happen it better happen quickly. Lot's of silver bulls have been demoralized. There is now a case/cause for the silver bears to dig their claws into.
Q- What will it take to break through all this resistance? My guess that short of a calamity it won't happen. Of course if this whole thing is part of a grand conspiracy then all bets are off. Hard to plan a trade for that though.
If this $50 thing is going to happen it better happen quickly before this onslaught settles permanently and painfully into everyones memory. Once bitten twice shy. This $50 brickwall has happened twice now. Both times it was defended like the world depended on it. Interesting. If silver EVER breaks $50 it will probably be with vengence and it might look like air being released out of a ballon.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>
If this $50 thing is going to happen it better happen quickly before this onslaught settles permanently and painfully into everyones memory. Once bitten twice shy. This $50 brickwall has happened twice now. Both times it was defended like the world depended on it. Interesting. If silver EVER breaks $50 it will probably be with vengence and it might look like air being released out of a ballon.
MJ >>
1990 confidence in the US economy played a role in low silver prices right after the 1980's. Don't forget that.
<< <i>
<< <i>
If this $50 thing is going to happen it better happen quickly before this onslaught settles permanently and painfully into everyones memory. Once bitten twice shy. This $50 brickwall has happened twice now. Both times it was defended like the world depended on it. Interesting. If silver EVER breaks $50 it will probably be with vengence and it might look like air being released out of a ballon.
MJ >>
1990 confidence in the US economy played a roll in low silver prices right after the 1980's. Don't forget that. >>
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Well silver should hit $100 very soon then as very few people have ANY confidence in the US Economy as this point in time. How can any sane person have confidence with printing presses running 24/7 printing TRILLIONS of dollars that nobody has any plans on ever repaying?
GrandAm
<< <i>
<< <i>
If this $50 thing is going to happen it better happen quickly before this onslaught settles permanently and painfully into everyones memory. Once bitten twice shy. This $50 brickwall has happened twice now. Both times it was defended like the world depended on it. Interesting. If silver EVER breaks $50 it will probably be with vengence and it might look like air being released out of a ballon.
MJ >>
1990 confidence in the US economy played a role in low silver prices right after the 1980's. Don't forget that. >>
Noted, but that is not a deal breaker either way for me. I don't think it's mutually exclusive. Silver rallied yesterday off of it's low on the back of "good news" on the job front. Silver may actually need confidence in the economy to sustain a rally this time. Silver will need a ton of inflation to stoke it. That may happen yet. MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
it wasnt that long ago that you could get a roll f ASE for less than 300 bucks.
Groucho Marx
8 out of 10 Americans have no confidence in the US economy today yet the stock market doesn't reflect this. Is the stock market just forward thinking? Or is there just a lack of places for all this money to go? It it possible that prices of everything are going to go up?
Or is the playing field so heavily tilted it just doesn't really matter? A month ago Goldman Sachs advised all clients to sell their oil positions. Demand destruction or something else? Well oil did go down, it pulled back mightly. If it wasn't for silvers epic fall this week, oils sudden sharpullback would have on everyones tongue instead. Yesterday GS predicted oil would be higher in 2012 then it would be in 2011. Go figure.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
FWIW- Gold did not have the massive run up or the massive sell off.
MJ
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
<< <i>My guess that short of a calamity it won't happen. >>
Calamities have been an almost monthly event of late. The odds of making it through the balance of 2011 w/o a major calamity are low. I'm not betting on $50 silver this year, but if it does stabilize around $35? We have a shot at it.
It was just 6 years ago that gold broke $500 and people were considered crazy if they spoke of $1,000 gold. I realize the run-up with gold was slower but also that silver was way undervalued at $10. Saying the PM run is over is based on a lot of emotion and negative thinking after a quick pull-back to a realistic price of $35. If you took it in the shorts this week? I don't blame you for being down. It happens.
I said 6-months, but I will be surprised if it takes that long.
FNM wants another $8.5-BILLION, next week.
FNM
Before August, the "debt ceiling" will be raised by $2-TRILLION+++. There will
be NO meaningful spending cuts attached to that deal.
QE will be disguised as something and the presses will continue to crank.
GS is NOW pumping commodities to their "Private Wealth Management Account"
clients. Friday's note to some clients even discussed the notion that "Black-Scholes"
models would likely be "misinterpreted" by derivative-traders and cause many to
miss the coming boom in commodities. GS is talking as tho their hand in the dump
is over/on hold; the pump phase definitely seems to be on. (Maybe they are telling
the truth, maybe they are simply in rinse/repeat mode.)
............
Regime change is the ONLY thing that metals-bulls need to worry about.
If it were to become obvious that such a change was likely, yesterday's
"dip" would look like a warmup.
By early 1980, it was clear that regime change was likely. Such clarity is
prolly the only genuine risk to metals thru 2012.
...........................
My WAG:
Gold is prolly a good bit safer than silver.
Until the bad guys have comfortably covered, $50 silver is the wall UNLESS
LOTS of govts start wanting to buy the metal.
Our challenge is that we won't know when the covering is finished, until we
see $55+++. Thus, we could load way too early AND be driven down again;
chasing the train and jumping on AFTER it has left the station is prolly the
safest play. Catching waves is safer than catching knives, but the next $45+
print may be a knife disguised as a wave.
This is the life we have chosen.
print may be a knife disguised as a wave.
This is the life we have chosen.
To quote a song from my favorite era, "Catch a Wave and You're Sittin' on top of the World"
I knew it would happen.
and 4 rivers run dry
when 2 rabbits meet
That's when it'll fly
Actually, the fall of 2012 when people subconciously start hoarding like they did before Y2K....
The big problem is this, who is correct and who is wrong. If
you are able to crystal ball the answer, you will be rich,
joyously happy with a trophy spouse, a big house and a private
plane. Oh my gosh, you will turn into....Gasp...Donald Trump!
Camelot
I think gold will garner much more investing attention than silver.
Two major resistance points were encountered last week. $50 and GSR of 31.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
GSR bottomed at 31. But that is nowhere near the 17 seen in 1980 following a much more volatile run in 1979. Same comment for Dow/gold bottoming at 7-1 two years ago.
Both have more work to do to reach 30+ yr lows. If gold heads to $2000+ and GSR sets a new low, where will silver be at? Gold is headed higher to balance the world's
sovereign debt and cushion the blow of $1 QUAD in derivatives as well as TRILLIONs in fiat money. Silver isn't going to sit back and watch from $22-$35/oz as
gold heads to $2,000 and beyond. 1980 inflation adjusted values for each are $2350 and $130-$140 (using the understated CPI). Double and triple those estimates if you
think the CPI has been cooked for the past 15-30 yrs.
Silver and gold have had no more than 2 major up legs since 2001. Where's the 3rd that most commodities tend to exhibit? The 1961-1980 silver run showed a nice 3 wave advance.
That was a 19+ year run. This one is over in <10 yrs? The silver chart from 2001-2011 looks a lot like the chart from 1965-early 1974. Both exhibit 2 up legs with the last one giving
a 4 to 5X increase. The $50 resistance point is a non-inflation adjusted one. Joe Six Pack thinks that way but longer term value investors don't. $20 was a tough nut to crack for
silver. But $50 silver is probably equivalent to what $1,000 was for gold.
Other commodities have already experienced huge sell offs but are still on uptrends over the past decade. Sugar got hammered by 43% and cotton 34%. Corn and coffee are probably
next. The banksters have no problem with massive run ups in commodities beyond trend lines as long as they can profit by the advance, and the decline. But in the end, they still get
to their intended targets. If one thinks silver is done, then they must also think that sugar and cotton are done as well. I know, the growing world doesn't need cotton or sugar. They
don't need silver as well with all the digital fiat money and plastic credit cards being made available to them. Maybe to get an idea where silver ends up is to look at sugar as both were
major laggards during the 2008-2009 period vs. their all time highs. Sugar is leading silver by several months and has experienced a 43% correction so far this year. It now stands at
30% of its 1970's high. A similar 43% correction would take silver to $28. Sugar has pulled back to retest the multi-year bowl formation that began forming in 2006. Regardless of all
that, sugar still appears to be in long term uptrend, albeit with plenty of swings. Neither sugar or silver received much respect since the 1970's....and silver only in the last 8 months.
$130 BILL+ in otc silver derivatives are still needed to "manage" silver. That's 5-6 years of production at current prices. It will be interesting to see what the next OOC report comes
out with to see if silver derivatives were drastically increased during the first quarter of this year. 5 margin hikes were used on silver in < 2 weeks. Was that same type of scrutiny
applied to silver back at it's previous highs in 2006 and 2008? How about to sugar, cotton, coffee, oil, and other hot commodities that have overheated in the past few months or years?
Was silver singled out? It may be that JPMorgue & Friends didn't want to do a repeat of 2008 by piling on derivatives and Comex shorts and draw further attention to themselves. This
time they needed the help of the CME to get 'er done more out in the open. Those last 2 rate hikes were added on after silver was already down 30% and dead for this cycle. Congress
doesn't have to worry about silver miners dogging them at their offices for the recent crash. But the oil execs started calling and showing up and that does get their attention. But why
add 2 more margin hikes to a burning carcass? Why weren't those increases spaced out better over the past 8 months rather than most of them in the last 2 weeks? Wasn't silver
overheated at $30? $35? $38? $40? $43? The coincidence of picking the 30 yr high of around $50 to apply all this "help" to silver (rather than $30 or $40) is rather incredible. J6P
has now been dutifully admonished not to deal in volatile PM's for at least another 30 yrs. Time for him to go back to "safe" stocks, bonds, and CD's via the strong $USD.
No need for silver/gold, food, or energy in this type of "safe" environment. I would agree that gold will be more attractive than silver going forward. But imo it's too late to bother with
swapping silver for gold at this point as much of the damage is now done. The time to do the "sucker" bet and trade your 100 oz bars for 3 AGE's was 1-2 weeks ago. But there may be
nice bounce in silver coming going into the $40's. If it makes you feel better, that would be a better time to take the rain check on the "sucker" bet.
roadrunner
Greg Hansen, Melbourne, FL Click here for any current EBAY auctions Multiple "Circle of Trust" transactions over 14 years on forum
<< <i>At the time I voted, over 70% were at one year or less. I voted more than that. Clearly the majority view this as a short term situation. I wish I were so confident. Hope they're right and I'm wrong, but I'm not running around looking for the keys to back up the truck. I guess I'm more accurately described as being paralyzed by the volatility. >>
The conundrum is that the fewer votes for the short time periods there are, the more likely the event is to occur quickly. If there were 80% at ten years or more, a quick bounce back would be extremely likely. The persistent bullishness is cause for concern and a negative for the bullish case. Sentiment tends to be a more valuable indicator than the fundamentals when talking about the short term.
The caveats are that sentiment is only one indicator, that this isn't a scientific poll, that this forum skews 90% to bulls most of the time (look at the many other prediction polls or threads over the years). Virtually all here believe in the long term up trend. That's why they take the considerable time and effort to read and post on a niche of a niche forum (coin nerds that are bullish on metals). When we were mixed in with the coin forum, there were more bears reading and responding.
<< <i>I subscribe to the 3 month prediction.... precious metals are driven by the economy and commercial demand, both of which will affect the move upward in the near future. Cheers, RickO >>
You left out another driving force. PM's are also driven by speculators as the latest scenario proved. If the deep pocket guys return, we'll see another run-up, but not before.
Applying the same thing to the 30 yr H&S pattern in GSR, the price objective falls between 9 and 17. There are multiple left shoulders to choose, hence the variation.
GSR charts
roadrunner
That said, this particular poll wasn't that useful. Mostly I observe about 80% permabulls on this forum, come rain, come shine. It rarely changes. Only if there are a lot of scared people (time to buy), or a lot of newbies buying (time to sell), does it tend to be actionable information. That most here expect prices to continue to move higher isn't news.
I concur, we are certainly an optimistic bunch. I rarely make predictions public, but I will state my thoughts here since I missed the poll the first time, and this thread could be revived again as time passes, especially with the "50." tag in the title. Plus no one will read them here much anyway
I see silver closing this year (2011) at about 35./36. (holiday buying), but I do not see outside of 30. to 39. for at least six more months. I think a relatively good floor has been set (intermediate term) in the 31. range, and that the next real fill range will be about 37.
From that point I think we could run a bit, especially into the end of next year (2012).
My take is sometime by about October next year we could see a surge through the 44./45. range, and if the volume is there (and the stars are aligned
FWIW ... I currently feel 35. is the FMV of Physical Ag, and that the value is rising against the weak economy and known (but unpublished) inflation.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
A generation did pass from the last high in 1980 to the bottom in 2001. The previous silver run took about 15-18 years to accomplish (1962-1980). The current run at 10 yrs young is still a leg or two shy of completion. While silver is no longer a ground floor opportunity, it still has a quadruple left in it.
roadrunner
At this stage I'm going to guess that $50 gets taken out the week after Thanksgiving 2012.
It seemed to me that as it previously approached that "highly desirerable" and "magical" and long hoped for (to sell) target that hoarders started to jump the gun somewhat and really unloaded silver in the high 40s. That included individuals as well as hedge funds and the other big players/speculators.
I just don't see a big run to or past $50.
It is all just guessing, wishful thinking or whatever.
No one knows or can predict it.
I don't fool myself by thinking otherwise.
I know I have no idea and neither does anyone else.
Just my very humble guess/feeling.
<< <i>it typically takes a generation to forget the pain of burst bubble, whether it be stock market, real estate, or precious metal >>
That is correct. Bubbles usually repeat only after a generation has passed. Due to delayed family formation, generations now take longer to complete than they did 50 years ago.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Some of the predictions will be right on and some will be off.
The big problem is this, who is correct and who is wrong. If
you are able to crystal ball the answer, you will be rich,
joyously happy with a trophy spouse, a big house and a private
plane. Oh my gosh, you will turn into....Gasp...Donald Trump! >>
I was looking at some older posts. This one above is by our dear friend Bear. We miss your humor and rest in peace.
one month 13 (votes) 8.55 (%)
three months 23 (votes) 15.13 (%)
six months 41 (votes) 26.97 (%)
one year 30 (votes) 19.74 (%)
These voting groups are getting the buzzer. These voters were about 70% of the total at the time of the poll.
As an aside, two forum polls this week have this forum about as bearish as I have ever seen it. In those two polls, there are solid majorities voting for the next $5 move to be down in silver and the next $100 move to be down for gold. In my years here, 80% permabulls tends to be the average in polling on this forum, like this $50 silver poll after the crash, with 70% predicting new highs in one year or sooner.
For tracking purposes, Kitco is showing $1593 gold, $29.20 silver on the ask.
Just in case, some get confused and vote in a year old poll, I'll archive the rest of the results below.
two years 16 (votes) 10.46 (%)
three years 5 (votes) 3.27 (%)
five years 7 (votes) 4.58 (%)
ten years 3 (votes) 1.96 (%)
20 years 4 (votes) 2.61 (%)
30+ years 11 (votes) 7.19 (%)
Certainly not me at this point, I can acknowledge things that are happening before my eyes even with as much as I have on the table. It's not fun, but this re-affirms to at least myself that I am not a pessimist or a optimist... I am a realist.
Not buying anything more than really catches my eye...buying just to add is not going to happen in this slow drawn out death of the metal. I may take a chance in the real low $20's, but not at any volume amounts til then. We've got to get past the election first imho.
I'm actually focusing on building the coin collection because I think there is more slightly longer term $ (less than 5 years) to be made there at this point than with Silver.
A good lesson for me and learning how to mentally handle dips/plunges/long lows, but only just starting and at 3+% ish of my port.
Now it doesn't have to hit $50 for everyone to recover or even do well, correct. If it goes back up to $36, I'd be
flush with some of my highest small buys. If it goes to $40, I'll be tickled. Anything higher and very happy.
Those Dow swings have me more concerned that it will blow soon...
<< <i>53 out of 162 are still in the running and can keep their crystal balls.
Buzzer for that as well. As I suspected might happen, some got confused and voted in the year old poll. 70% got it wrong in the update, so some of those 53 are votes are since I updated. Markets get very easy when you get to vote a year after the fact.
/edit to add, here were the results when I pulled up the old thread:
one month 13 (votes) 8.55 (%)
three months 23 (votes) 15.13 (%)
six months 41 (votes) 26.97 (%)
one year 30 (votes) 19.74 (%)
two years 16 (votes) 10.46 (%)
three years 5 (votes) 3.27 (%)
five years 7 (votes) 4.58 (%)
ten years 3 (votes) 1.96 (%)
20 years 4 (votes) 2.61 (%)
30+ years 11 (votes) 7.19 (%)
153 votes total, so nine may have voted just to see the results or because they got confused
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'd be surprised to see it go lower or higher than those numbers, until the prices of those other things move proportionally. Most of them haven't even caught up with $29 silver
(then again, you can't efficiently store those other things as they are bulky and/or perishable, so nice stable compact PMs get an edge on them.. not a crazy edge, but a premium nonetheless)
short answer: $50 silver when it's $10 for fast food value meal.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
46 out of 153 can keep the their c.b's.