How To Make $50,000 in 18 Months Buying Bust Halves

BustHalfBrian · January 22, 2015 2:47PM

1/2012 for $17,250.00
7/2013 for $61,687.50

61,687.50 - 17,250.00 = 44,437.50, so not quite $50k but still quite the ROI in just 18 months time.

I enjoy making these observations. It allows me to really evaluate the market and make clear distinctions as to what's generally preferred by collectors. In this case, clear plastic vs. white plastic and a small piece of sticky, green foil seem to take the cake.

AnkurJ · January 22, 2015 2:48PM

Lack of faith in NGC.

Broadstruck · January 22, 2015 2:57PM

Maybe it's just my eyes but this CBH looks AU64 to me in both holders

BustHalfBrian · January 22, 2015 2:59PM

<< Maybe it's just my eyes but this CBH looks AU64 to me in both holders

>>

I meant to add, the coin is now PCGS MS64+

CoinJunkie · January 22, 2015 3:10PM

<< I enjoy making these observations. It allows me to really evaluate the market and make clear distinctions as to what's generally preferred by collectors. In this case, clear plastic vs. white plastic and a small piece of sticky, green foil seem to take the cake. >>

True in the vast majority of cases, actually, although the price spread varies depending on series, date, grade, etc.

coin22lover · January 22, 2015 3:11PM

Wow.

illini420 · January 22, 2015 3:12PM

Typically, coins of that value in a FUN Platinum night are reviewed by CAC before Heritage sells them. If that is the case, looks like CAC didn't like it in the NGC holder, but did like it in the PCGS holder. Wondering how much, if any, that played into the auction results vs. the PCGS/NGC difference?

Type2 · January 22, 2015 3:15PM

Good job keep up the good work.

lasvegasteddy · January 22, 2015 3:15PM

another example telling me...i'm doing something wrong

BustHalfBrian · January 22, 2015 3:16PM

<< Good job keep up the good work.

>>

PS: I did not buy this coin on either occasions

Type2 · January 22, 2015 3:18PM

<< 

<< Good job keep up the good work.

>>

PS: I did not buy this coin on either occasions

>>

Well get to work then Brian....

BustHalfBrian · January 22, 2015 3:19PM

<< 

<< 

<< Good job keep up the good work.

>>

PS: I did not buy this coin on either occasions

>>

Well get to work then Brian....

>>

Is this your way of offering financial backing?

Type2 · January 22, 2015 3:25PM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< Good job keep up the good work.

>>

PS: I did not buy this coin on either occasions

>>

Well get to work then Brian....

>>

Is this your way of offering financial backing?

>>

65/35 split but want this kind of numbers in GP.

TahoeDale · January 22, 2015 4:05PM

There is even more trading in this coin-sold to Legends for about 65K, then sold by Legends for about 70K.

I agree with the poster re opinion on grade in the AU64 range. And this price for a PC 64+ is way too high, IMO.
Another PC 64 sold for about 30K, and guides have a + at mid 30,000 range.

But what do I know??

Edit- I feel comfortable that PCGS was aware of this trading(auction and subsequent sales), but the guides still show a price of 35,000
for a 64+ of this variety.

ricko · January 23, 2015 12:34AM

Great ROI....Cheers, RickO

lcoopie · January 23, 2015 12:40AM

And someone may lose $44k when selling

Wabbit2313 · January 23, 2015 12:41AM

Holy Cow!

wondercoin · January 23, 2015 12:44AM

This is what the "modern guys" laugh about. The "classic guys" often claim you can not tell the difference between the 69's and 70's. The modern guys point out that it is often difficult to tell the difference between the $15,000 and $65,000 Classic coins.

Wondercoin

Sonorandesertrat · January 23, 2015 12:48AM

Looks like the coin got a grade bump for nice color, and an auction price bump on top of that....for color. I wonder if the current owner is on thin ice.

DennisH · January 23, 2015 12:55AM

The AU64 comment coincides with my thoughts.

roadrunner · January 23, 2015 1:10AM

<< There is even more trading in this coin-sold to Legends for about 65K, then sold by Legends for about 70K.

I agree with the poster re opinion on grade in the AU64 range. And this price for a PC 64+ is way too high, IMO.
Another PC 64 sold for about 30K, and guides have a + at mid 30,000 range.

But what do I know??

Edit- I feel comfortable that PCGS was aware of this trading(auction and subsequent sales), but the guides still show a price of 35,000
for a 64+ of this variety. >>

Makes you wonder why Legend didn't buy it at the $17K bargain price at January FUN 2012? Is it about buying "value" or just what you can flip? Apparently, dealers are heavily influenced by holders and stickers too.
You should either like a coin or not. You should be able to grade/value a coin in any holder, or raw....though I'd be the first to admit that having it end up in the top holder at a higher grade is not all that easy. "No one" loved
this coin as a NGC 64. Now it's loved by many as a PCGS 64+. Same coin. Just went through this with my old 1858-0 dime in NGC MS66. After years of dealers telling me it was lucky to be in a 66 holder and would
never cross, I sold it back in 2004 (after multiple failed cross attempts). It was just sold in Gardner as a MS66+ CAC with all the accolades (now in Legend's inventory/auction). I always knew what the coin was even when
I bought it back in 1982 (orig tpg graded as MS65 back in 1988). But the coin wasn't universally loved until the past year. Go figure.

The market was just getting out of its 2 year funk in January 2012. So you should expect a decent surge on quality coins from 2009-2011 into 2013-2014....but not 3.6X. I feel more for the consignor back in January 2012
who got peanuts for their coin because it was in the wrong holder. Even if it got stickered then it still might have been a chore to reach $25K. But a perfect example of how hated some NGC coins had become, especially when
not stickered.

DeepCoin · January 23, 2015 1:10AM

Auction prices often reflect two buyers knocking heads more than anything. The winner may be buried, but LOVE the coin and not care. For coins where there are many of them coming to auction, then a market value is typical. I would use the coming Pogue auction as an example of where prices will be over the moon. Of course those coins will set the market, but I can see a couple of buyers fighting it out and prices matching that effort.

roadrunner · January 23, 2015 1:28AM

<< Lack of faith in NGC. >>

Very true. But also, a bigger lack of faith in one's own grading abilities to recognize the "good" coins in NGC holders. It would be interesting to know if this coin were seen by CAC prior to January 2012. I would say that the
biggest lack of faith in NGC grading is in capped bust halves in the MS64-MS66 grade range. I first learned that lesson back in 2004 when I found I couldn't sell a generic MS65 CBH for any more than real 64+ money. A
comparison of the pop reports clearly shows the issue.

Auction prices often reflect two buyers knocking heads more than anything. The winner may be buried, but LOVE the coin and not care. For coins where there are many of them coming to auction, then a market value is typical.
I would use the coming Pogue auction as an example of where prices will be over the moon. Of course those coins will set the market, but I can see a couple of buyers fighting it out and prices matching that effort.

But not applicable to this 1814/3 bust half as the summer 2013 auction price has continued to advance outside of the auction market. The 3.6X increase in price in 18 months (Jan 2012 - July 2013) is more than half due to the
holder change and sticker. The rest could be from the improvement in the market over those 18 months.

wondercoin · January 23, 2015 1:38AM

"Makes you wonder why Legend didn't buy it at the $17K bargain price at January FUN 2012? Is it about buying "value" or just what you can flip? Apparently, dealers are heavily influenced by holders and stickers too."

RR. It makes you wonder why No one paid up $20,000 for the coin back in 2012? But, it demonstrates what a cross and/or a half point upgrade can mean to a coin - whether classic or modern!

Wondercoin.

roadrunner · January 23, 2015 1:46AM

<< "Makes you wonder why Legend didn't buy it at the $17K bargain price at January FUN 2012? Is it about buying "value" or just what you can flip? Apparently, dealers are heavily influenced by holders and stickers too."

RR. It makes you wonder why No one paid up $20,000 for the coin back in 2012? But, it demonstrates what a cross and/or a half point upgrade can mean to a coin - whether classic or modern!

Wondercoin. >>

I agree, it's all about the sticker and the cross. Would also add this 1814/3 if graded NGC MS64+ (no sticker) or NGC 64* (no sticker) would have still been severely challenged price-wise back in January 2012. It's not
unusual to see a nice gem NGC stickered type coin bring 20-30% less than an unstickered PCGS coin. That's happened to me a couple times. And the funny thing is, one by one those coins are starting to get crossed into PCGS
holders. It's very difficult to get the cross on gem bust/seated type....or least for us regular Joes. Cracking them out takes a little nerve but you will end up with the PCGS grade the coin deserves. Every top dealer or collector
will tell you they can "grade." But this bust half clearly shows that most of them don't have confidence in their own abilities (ie they can "grade" PCGS coins but not NGC coins). The upper echelon of the coin buying community
all had the chance to buy that coin in January 2012. JA is one of the few out there "grading" NGC coins (other than NGC itself) by putting stickers on them. It still doesn't close the gap all the way though.

MrEureka · January 23, 2015 1:58AM

<< Lack of faith in NGC. >>

Very true. But also, a bigger lack of faith in one's own grading abilities to recognize the "good" coins in NGC holders.

That was my first thought. But then I thought, maybe people looked at the coin and didn't like it as a solid 64. Maybe they had too much faith in their own grading abilities, and they were simply wrong about the coin. Or maybe they were right about the coin and had too much faith that CAC would not sticker a low end coin.

Or maybe there's simply no such thing as "the right grade", so it's all just one big guessing game, one big casino.

CaptHenway · January 23, 2015 2:06AM

<< << Lack of faith in NGC. >>

Very true. But also, a bigger lack of faith in one's own grading abilities to recognize the "good" coins in NGC holders.

That was my first thought. But then I thought, maybe people looked at the coin and didn't like it as a solid 64. Maybe they had too much faith in their own grading abilities, and they were simply wrong about the coin. Or maybe they were right about the coin and had too much faith that CAC would not sticker a low end coin.

Or maybe there's simply no such thing as "the right grade", so it's all just one big guessing game, one big casino. >>

Ya pays yer money and you takes yer chance!

roadrunner · January 23, 2015 2:19AM

<< ............Or maybe there's simply no such thing as "the right grade", so it's all just one big guessing game, one big casino. >>

I can buy that.

JCMhouston · January 23, 2015 2:24AM

<< Lack of faith in NGC. >>

or an overabundance of Kool-Aid. With all of the examples posted of crossovers etc. (on these boards) in the past couple of years I'm surprised any reasonably intelligent collector would pay extra just for the plastic. You would think serious collectors would learn to look through the plastic and pay for the coin in the holder.

roadrunner · January 23, 2015 2:35AM

<< 

<< Lack of faith in NGC. >>

or an overabundance of Kool-Aid. With all of the examples posted of crossovers etc. (on these boards) in the past couple of years I'm surprised any reasonably intelligent collector would pay extra just for the plastic. You would think serious collectors would learn to look through the plastic and pay for the coin in the holder. >>

Been this way since at least 2002...probably 1998. First time I learned this lesson in 2002 it cost me $5K/25% by underselling an NGC coin that was easily crossable/crackable. Heck, I even guaranteed the buyer than the coin would cross or it was no deal.

Broadstruck · January 23, 2015 2:47AM

<< You would think serious collectors would learn to look through the plastic and pay for the coin in the holder. >>

I'm sure seasoned collectors do... On the Pogue coin images posted I haven't even glanced at the grades on the labels.

BAJJERFAN · January 23, 2015 3:17AM

<< 

<< Lack of faith in NGC. >>

or an overabundance of Kool-Aid. With all of the examples posted of crossovers etc. (on these boards) in the past couple of years I'm surprised any reasonably intelligent collector would pay extra just for the plastic. You would think serious collectors would learn to look through the plastic and pay for the coin in the holder. >>

Apparently for the OP coin none of them could agree on what it was worth. It would be interesting if the coin in the OP was cracked out [and PCGS would agree to reholder it as 64+] and offered raw to those who profess to buy the coin and not the holder, just to see what it would bring.

brg5658 · January 23, 2015 3:24AM

<< Lack of faith in NGC. >>

I don't think it has anything to do with lack of faith, so much as possibly "blind faith" in little green holographic stickers...

TahoeDale · January 23, 2015 3:30AM

I can honestly say I looked at this 1817/3(not the 1814/3) when it was in the NGC 64 holder and sold for 17K( I did not bid) . Again, when it sold for 61K in the PC 64 holder,
I bid 30K, and it doubled that price.

Then, when Legends had it in the 64+ holder, and priced at 75K, I just shook my head.

A properly graded MS 64 is a $30,000 coin, a 63 20K, and a 64+ 35 to 40K.
But this 64+ is toned, and a top pop. Maybe the new owner will find a passionate collector some time in the future to pay for the attributes.

This date in high grade is not the only CBH to soar in recent times. The 1820 sq 2 no knob in PC 65 sold for 61K last year, at a time that PC guided it at 32,500.
But DH raised it to 61K for the guides-that says something about the quality of the specific coin.

AnkurJ · January 23, 2015 3:30AM

Regarding the being too strict with grading, this coin has been critiqued the same way. It is in a NGC MS64 CAC holder. But people feel its a 63 based on the images.

TopographicOceans · January 23, 2015 3:35AM

I thought this was going to be a "work at home" opportunity.

But I guess that's what it is for this seller.

stealer · January 23, 2015 3:37AM

<< 

<< ............Or maybe there's simply no such thing as "the right grade", so it's all just one big guessing game, one big casino. >>

I can buy that.

>>

Yep, it certainly seems like a big casino. One fish, two fish, small fish, big fish ... oh wait that's not how it goes

johnny9434 · January 23, 2015 5:10AM

wow, if that would work every time now....

djdilliodon · January 23, 2015 5:18AM

<< Regarding the being too strict with grading, this coin has been critiqued the same way. It is in a NGC MS64 CAC holder. But people feel its a 63 based on the images.

>>

You can stick that coin in any holder you want. You can put any sticker on it you want as well. You can assign any grade you feel is fair for it. At the end of the day, it's still a beautiful coin and that's all that should matter!

SullivanNumismatics · January 23, 2015 6:52AM

That's quite amazing. You really, really should buy the coin and not the holder (unless you're an investor, and then you should do both.)

SullivanNumismatics · January 23, 2015 6:58AM

<< Or maybe there's simply no such thing as "the right grade", so it's all just one big guessing game, one big casino. >>

I agree. It says to me that if you cannot see an obvious difference in a coin priced thousands of dollars above one of the next grade down, you shouldn't buy it. Why pay thousands more for a coin which "experts" can't even decide what to grade it? Doesn't make sense to me.

410a · January 23, 2015 7:15AM

........Broadstruck is right in that coins lifetime, I be wiling to wager it was at times considered to be an AU-58 coin. Doesn't matter though to me as I think it's over priced.

Baley · January 23, 2015 7:41AM

The best thing the hobby could do would be to drop the adjective words and abbreviations like AU and just use the numbers... yes, a net 64 can have a touch of rub that is more than made up for in overall quality, and a coin with a full strike and no rub at all but full of heavy bagmarks or other unsightly problems like ugly stain-toning can net less than 60

vplite99 · January 23, 2015 7:43AM

<< Maybe it's just my eyes but this CBH looks AU64 to me in both holders

>>

I had to Google AU64; it's been many so years since I heard that term. Interesting concept.

410a · January 23, 2015 7:52AM

....The true sickness in the "hobby" is MARKET GRADING......thank you.

coindeuce · January 23, 2015 8:10AM

<< A properly graded MS 64 is a $30,000 coin, a 63 20K, and a 64+ 35 to 40K.
But this 64+ is toned, and a top pop. Maybe the new owner will find a passionate collector some time in the future to pay for the attributes. >>

Sometimes, there is no limit to what price a collector will pay for their vanity. If this coin isn't presently owned by a Registry competitor who needed it for fractions of a point in their set GPA
(Grade Point Average) to edge out another competitor, I would be very surprised.

jom · January 23, 2015 8:12AM

<< The best thing the hobby could do would be to drop the adjective words and abbreviations like AU and just use the numbers... yes, a net 64 can have a touch of rub that is more than made up for in overall quality, and a coin with a full strike and no rub at all but full of heavy bagmarks or other unsightly problems like ugly stain-toning can net less than 60 >>

This^ +10

Wear on a coin is really no different of an determent than lack of luster, bag marks or poor strike. Value should be applied by overall quality, IMO.

jom

crypto79 · January 23, 2015 8:30AM

<< 

<< The best thing the hobby could do would be to drop the adjective words and abbreviations like AU and just use the numbers... yes, a net 64 can have a touch of rub that is more than made up for in overall quality, and a coin with a full strike and no rub at all but full of heavy bagmarks or other unsightly problems like ugly stain-toning can net less than 60 >>

This^ +10

Wear on a coin is really no different of an determent than lack of luster, bag marks or poor strike. Value should be applied by overall quality, IMO.

jom >>

Isn't it already?!?

MrEureka · January 23, 2015 8:45AM

It says to me that if you cannot see an obvious difference in a coin priced thousands of dollars above one of the next grade down, you shouldn't buy it. Why pay thousands more for a coin which "experts" can't even decide what to grade it?

These are two very different statements. I agree with the first, but not the second. Even if there's no agreement on numerical grades, a buyer can still like one coin more than another. And that's worth something. Sometimes, much more than "thousands of dollars".

BAJJERFAN · January 23, 2015 8:54AM

<< 

<< A properly graded MS 64 is a $30,000 coin, a 63 20K, and a 64+ 35 to 40K.
But this 64+ is toned, and a top pop. Maybe the new owner will find a passionate collector some time in the future to pay for the attributes. >>

Sometimes, there is no limit to what price a collector will pay for their vanity. If this coin isn't presently owned by a Registry competitor who needed it for fractions of a point in their set GPA
(Grade Point Average) to edge out another competitor, I would be very surprised.

>>

it's not even in the PCGS database. I wonder if it's now a 65, either here or ATS.

puffer · January 23, 2015 8:56AM

Does the enjoyment of the hobby diminish when you have results like this for the owners of the rarities? When there is a type of perception or artifice that takes the same collectible and makes it worth 2X more or significantly more on a percentage basis, just based on that promotional, sales oriented method, what does it do to the hobby with the objective of maximum enjoyment for the greatest number?

How To Make $50,000 in 18 Months Buying Bust Halves

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