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1803 Draped Bust Half New Purchase & Obvious Collecting Bias
TomB
Posts: 20,737 ✭✭✭✭✭
Today I received an 1803 Draped Bust half (DBH) in an ANACS VG8 holder. In my opinion, the coin is accurately graded, is more-or-less original and has superior eye appeal compared to most coins from this series, regardless of grade. This is a series that has been dear to me for some time, and I have never found a satisfactory 1803 in all my searches. The ideal 1803 for me would be a VF or EF coin with original, dark surfaces that show no evidence of mishandling and no marks that are not contemporary with original circulation. Unfortunately, although this is a very nice VG8, it certainly is not what I am looking for in this coin and, although I will keep this coin, the search will continue.
What I find amazing is how much, or more accurately how little, this coin cost to acquire. The original mintage for this date was a then-robust 188,234 pieces, which can be put into perspective for more recent coinage by comparing it to the following “rarities”-
1877 Indian Head cent 852,500
1909-S VDB Lincoln cent 484,000
1916-D Mercury dime 264,000
1896-S Barber quarter 188,039
1901-S Barber quarter 72,664
1916 Standing Liberty quarter 52,000
1932-D Washington quarter 436,800
1932-S Washington quarter 408,000
1921 Walking Liberty half 246,000
1921-D Walking Liberty half 208,000
Of course, there are other coins, but this list should be fairly representative. The mintage of the 1803 DBH falls quite comfortably within the range of these well-known and generally expensive key dates. The mintage for this coin is also somewhat deceptive when one considers that the number of coins extant plays an enormous role in price. The half dollars of this era contained approximately 7% more silver in them than the half dollars of a half-century later. This difference in weight may well have contributed to the destruction of a perhaps large percentage of the original mintage, and this percentage lost through intentional melting cannot be known.
However, what can be known is the approximate number of extant pieces based upon the considerable work put into the research of early half dollars by the Bust Half Nut Club (BHNC). The BHNC issued its latest rarity ratings for early half dollars in the summer of 2004 and the total number of 1803 DBH examples estimated to exist in all grades combined and all die pairings combined is between 804 and 2,000 coins. If we desire a single number to work with we might take the maximum coins estimated to survive and our number of 2,000 represents 1.1% of the total mintage. That’s it. Stunningly, a 203-year old half dollar from a very attractive series, in a collector friendly mid-grade, certified by a major TPG, which is largely original and that has a total maximum survivorship of at most 2,000 coins and likely substantially fewer cost less than $200.
I find this amazing. Greysheet bid for the grade is only $120 and is woefully inadequate. I decided to put the cost of this coin into perspective by comparing it to numismatic pieces that can easily be replaced with little effort. Unfortunately, almost all the comparisons listed below are for modern coinage and this was not done in an attempt to bash modern pieces. Rather, the pieces chosen were included for their ease of acquisition and comparable price. Therefore, for the money that this 1803 DBH set me back, I could have bought any one of the currently available lots listed below-
1) Two rolls of MS silver Washington quarters from the 1960s
2) Two 1,000 coin ($50 face value) bags of general circulation 2006 Jefferson nickels directly from the US Mint
3) Two 20th Anniversary American Silver Eagle three coin sets directly from the US Mint
4) Five MS Franklin commemorative dollars directly from the US Mint
5) One 1881-S NGC MS65 Morgan dollar from Heritage
In my opinion, there is an enormous difference in value represented in the 1803 VG8 DBH vs. any of the lots listed. Obviously, the DBH would be significantly tougher to find, but would not be any more difficult to sell and may very well be more liquid. The comparison to the 1881-S Morgan dollar is truly amazing when one considers the PCGS population is 40,205 coins in MS65 for this date alone with 11,180 coins graded higher while the NGC population is 36,550 coins in MS65 for this date alone with 12,949 coins graded higher. Therefore, between PCGS and NGC they have graded 76,755 1881-S Morgan dollars in MS65 and an additional 24,129 1881-S Morgan dollars in MS66 or better. This total of 100,884 coins for the 1881-S Morgan dollar represents approximately 54% of the total original mintage of the 1803 DBH, yet the generic MS65 1881-S trades for essentially equal money to the 1803 DBH.
Let me please acknowledge that the market is driven by supply and demand and that there are far more collectors, investors and hoarders of generic Morgan dollars than there are collectors of early half dollars. It should also be apparent that mass marketing of high grade Morgan dollars can be easily achieved because of their enormous numbers and fluid supply whereas marketing of early half dollars is at most a boutique shop endeavor. The same can be written for the currently available US Mint products listed in comparison and the bullion related silver rolls of Washington quarters.
Nonetheless, my collecting bias and interest are astounded by the perceived value of this 1803 DBH in comparison with certain other segments of the market.
What I find amazing is how much, or more accurately how little, this coin cost to acquire. The original mintage for this date was a then-robust 188,234 pieces, which can be put into perspective for more recent coinage by comparing it to the following “rarities”-
1877 Indian Head cent 852,500
1909-S VDB Lincoln cent 484,000
1916-D Mercury dime 264,000
1896-S Barber quarter 188,039
1901-S Barber quarter 72,664
1916 Standing Liberty quarter 52,000
1932-D Washington quarter 436,800
1932-S Washington quarter 408,000
1921 Walking Liberty half 246,000
1921-D Walking Liberty half 208,000
Of course, there are other coins, but this list should be fairly representative. The mintage of the 1803 DBH falls quite comfortably within the range of these well-known and generally expensive key dates. The mintage for this coin is also somewhat deceptive when one considers that the number of coins extant plays an enormous role in price. The half dollars of this era contained approximately 7% more silver in them than the half dollars of a half-century later. This difference in weight may well have contributed to the destruction of a perhaps large percentage of the original mintage, and this percentage lost through intentional melting cannot be known.
However, what can be known is the approximate number of extant pieces based upon the considerable work put into the research of early half dollars by the Bust Half Nut Club (BHNC). The BHNC issued its latest rarity ratings for early half dollars in the summer of 2004 and the total number of 1803 DBH examples estimated to exist in all grades combined and all die pairings combined is between 804 and 2,000 coins. If we desire a single number to work with we might take the maximum coins estimated to survive and our number of 2,000 represents 1.1% of the total mintage. That’s it. Stunningly, a 203-year old half dollar from a very attractive series, in a collector friendly mid-grade, certified by a major TPG, which is largely original and that has a total maximum survivorship of at most 2,000 coins and likely substantially fewer cost less than $200.
I find this amazing. Greysheet bid for the grade is only $120 and is woefully inadequate. I decided to put the cost of this coin into perspective by comparing it to numismatic pieces that can easily be replaced with little effort. Unfortunately, almost all the comparisons listed below are for modern coinage and this was not done in an attempt to bash modern pieces. Rather, the pieces chosen were included for their ease of acquisition and comparable price. Therefore, for the money that this 1803 DBH set me back, I could have bought any one of the currently available lots listed below-
1) Two rolls of MS silver Washington quarters from the 1960s
2) Two 1,000 coin ($50 face value) bags of general circulation 2006 Jefferson nickels directly from the US Mint
3) Two 20th Anniversary American Silver Eagle three coin sets directly from the US Mint
4) Five MS Franklin commemorative dollars directly from the US Mint
5) One 1881-S NGC MS65 Morgan dollar from Heritage
In my opinion, there is an enormous difference in value represented in the 1803 VG8 DBH vs. any of the lots listed. Obviously, the DBH would be significantly tougher to find, but would not be any more difficult to sell and may very well be more liquid. The comparison to the 1881-S Morgan dollar is truly amazing when one considers the PCGS population is 40,205 coins in MS65 for this date alone with 11,180 coins graded higher while the NGC population is 36,550 coins in MS65 for this date alone with 12,949 coins graded higher. Therefore, between PCGS and NGC they have graded 76,755 1881-S Morgan dollars in MS65 and an additional 24,129 1881-S Morgan dollars in MS66 or better. This total of 100,884 coins for the 1881-S Morgan dollar represents approximately 54% of the total original mintage of the 1803 DBH, yet the generic MS65 1881-S trades for essentially equal money to the 1803 DBH.
Let me please acknowledge that the market is driven by supply and demand and that there are far more collectors, investors and hoarders of generic Morgan dollars than there are collectors of early half dollars. It should also be apparent that mass marketing of high grade Morgan dollars can be easily achieved because of their enormous numbers and fluid supply whereas marketing of early half dollars is at most a boutique shop endeavor. The same can be written for the currently available US Mint products listed in comparison and the bullion related silver rolls of Washington quarters.
Nonetheless, my collecting bias and interest are astounded by the perceived value of this 1803 DBH in comparison with certain other segments of the market.
1
Comments
Thanks for sharing.
-Amanda
I'm a YN working on a type set!
My Buffalo Nickel Website Home of the Quirky Buffaloes Collection!
Proud member of the CUFYNA
Great post, coin, and analysis
Here is an 1803 Small 3 half dollar that I purchased from the 2003 Heritage ANA auction. The Small 3 is slightly higher in price than the Large 3 because it is found on only one die marriage for the date, O.104. The reverse die for this coin was also used in 1805, where it eventually developed a large cud.
Sadly, putting an "AT" in the title would have gained about 20x more responses
Capped Bust Half Series
Capped Bust Half Dime Series
I am also one who values absolute rarity over condition rarity and other kinds of "rarity". The historical value just adds to your bust half being a bargain. Even though it has over 3 1/2 times the mintage of the 1916 SLQ, it has a much smaller surviving population. When you consider problem-free coins, the population is probably relatively miniscule compared with key dates that attract so much collector interest.
Obscurum per obscurius
-Amanda
I'm a YN working on a type set!
My Buffalo Nickel Website Home of the Quirky Buffaloes Collection!
Proud member of the CUFYNA
Although, Tom, Sssshhhhh about the math regarding the cost vs surviving population of these 200 year old treasures!
Can you imagine what prices would be like for these if even a small fraction of the money going toward more modern "rarities" and recent mint "products" instead was competing for the limited supply of genuine rare historic old pieces?
At least we're way ahead of the curve in our collections of such old coins, in the event that such an occurance were to come to pass; I share your Collecting Bias
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
My opinion to your question or theory is that it is partially correct. There are quite a few collectors out there who are serious about finishing those series that got them started in coins, that they collected out of change or that they put together with their parents or grandparents. To the best of my knowledge, none of these scenarios would include DBHs. A portion of these same collectors do not branch out into the older material, and this would limit their participation in this series.
I think there are at least two other factors in play and these are that this coinage is not that common to find in problem-free condition and that it "seems" expensive. Certainly, if you wanted to put together a VF-EF set of DBHs the price per coin would be relatively high, but the total price of the series might not rival that of an MS set of silver Washington quarters or Peace dollars. However, both of those latter sets are attempted by many folks. The scarcity of the coins definitely limits participation, but should not preclude folks from looking for these wonderful pieces of numismatic Americana. I'm quite happy that I have been buying these for many years and I look forward to buying more of them.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
And to Amanda's question about coin popularity having something to do with our childhood exposures, I think there is a strong element of truth to that, not necessarily the whole truth, but a valid point, and something that has a very credible basis in reality.
Coin's for sale/trade.
Tom Pilitowski
US Rare Coin Investments
800-624-1870
As always a great and thoughtful post. It is SO nice to see an informative post from a true collector and expert numismatist.
Hope things are well with you.
John
siliconvalleycoins.com
A lot of older coins that are only collected widely for type have bargains like these among lower-mintage dates. Because there are so few date collectors putting entire sets together, there isn't a lot of pressure on the better dates and they can often be picked off for "type" money.
Shhhhh! you guys are giving away all the secrets!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Thanks for the kind words everyone, and Amanda, you didn't collect Draped Bust coinage from pocket change as a kid? Hmmmmm... >>
No, I must have missed out on that one.
I will certainly look to add one to my collection in the future, though!
-Amanda
I'm a YN working on a type set!
My Buffalo Nickel Website Home of the Quirky Buffaloes Collection!
Proud member of the CUFYNA
My example:
There are lots of (relative) price vs. scarcity dislocations in rare date gold that offer similar value, and quite a few are available to a wide range of collectors.
The coin below has an original mintage of 34,000, a survivial population of fewer than 100 coins, an interesting numismatic history, and an original, circulated appearance. All of this was available for less than $700 (but still well over published prices):
I think that rare date collectors like the 1801 and 1802 and 1805/4 Type collectors will usually accept any date so they settle for a 1806 or 1807. A lot of bust half collectors start their sets with the capped bust 1807. The 1803 gets lost in the mix and is a pretty much forgotten coin...There are much fewer date collectors of this series(1801-1807) than most others. The 1803 is an underloved date--i think the 1805 is also but to a lesser extent. Finding a 1803 in nice problem free VF/XF is a difficult task. I really like 1803 Bust halves, but i think the scenerio will remain the same. JMHO. Bob
I think "circulated cameo" should become a quasi-official numismatic term. If somebody else didn't coin the phrase before me, let it be known henceforth, that I, Lord M. Smartypants, created it here and now.
Yeah, that's the ticket.
From henceforth and now on, blahblahblah, Let It Be Known that I, Lord M. Smartypants, did hereby and blahblahblah, REcoin the term "Circulation Cameo", to refer to any business strike coin that has dark fields and light devices; to wit, a coin that received a cameo effect through wear (circulation), as opposed to a cameo proof coin.
So be it enacted. From now on, all such coins shall be referred to as "circulation cameos".
At least by me.
Here's one of mine I sold to a fellow board member. Hopefully he doesn't mind me posting a pic of it.
Nice coin Tom!!! and I agree with your comments 100%.
K S
I also think it is interesting that bust halves were the bullion coin of their day, much like the Morgan dollar. That is why so many (in comparison to bust quarters for example) survive today.
All that said, I think I may begin to collect them in lower grades as they really appeal to me. Would that I could afford to collect AUs like Laura.
Here's my 1803 large 3 example.....
Circulation Cameo... I like it Lord M. Smartypants!
-Amanda
I'm a YN working on a type set!
My Buffalo Nickel Website Home of the Quirky Buffaloes Collection!
Proud member of the CUFYNA
Sure wish these coins could talk, can you imagine the stories they'd tell?
Here's one more '03 I picked up for about a VG price, has nice detail and surfaces with just one flaw, can you spot it?
Great post Tom, TTT!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>I just had a thought- could the prices and demand for some of those keys have a correlation with the number of people who would collect the series as kids but could never get the rarer dates? I am referring to 09-S VDBs, the 16-D Merc and other coins from sets that people could mostly complete from pocket change. Coins from the early 1800's might not hold the same sort of nostalgia as the coin you always wanted as a kid for your Whitman folder. I'm just speculating, though, having no experience to back myself up.
-Amanda >>
Amanda,
I think you may have hit the nail on the head.
Jonathan
<< <i>Here's one of mine I sold to a fellow board member. Hopefully he doesn't mind me posting a pic of it.
Nice coin Tom!!! and I agree with your comments 100%.
Now THAT is a coin worth collecting! Nice coin.
Jonathan
Speaking of circulation cameos, and of Draped halves, here is my most recent 1806.
<< <i>Here's one more '03 I picked up for about a VG price, has nice detail and surfaces with just one flaw, can you spot it?
<< <i>What percent of the population of older busties in lower circulated condition are held by the members of the Bust Half Nut Club? >>
Less than you might think. There are many 1803s out and about, looking for a home. They are more common than 1805, despite a lower mintage.
<< <i>check out 3-cents silvers w/ extremely low mintages - they suffer from the same type of fate as your 1803 >>
Where are all the circ 3 centers? I never see them at shows. These have lots of wild repunched dates.
Apologies to anyone surprised by the resurrection of an old thread.
As I was looking through today's ANA newsletter I read about an attempt to date the origin of the term "circulated cameo". The earliest reference cited was from a "2007 Chicago Coin Club Chatter".
coinbooks.org/v21/club_nbs_esylum_v21n30.html#article6
Obviously @lordmarcovan presented it here (Sept 2006)! I passed that along to the ANA. I hope he gets the proper credit.
To add some thread relevance, here is an XF45 1803 O.103 and a circulated cameo 1808 O.110 R5 EDS in F12.
Lance.
Love posts like this. Thanks.
I was enjoying reading the OP, nodding my head in agreement. But I got down to the discussion of price, and I was going to complain!!....then I figured out it was from 2006.
(Currently seeking a nice 1805 of similar grade!)
But....they still aren't all that expensive in the big picture! (We know this, because I own one).
Great way to resurrect an old thread. And (Holey) hats off to Lord M. !
For the origin of the term "circulated cameo", I found an earlier reference from November 25, 2004, possibly the first usage of "circulated cameo" - by MrEureka!
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/343184/poll-should-circs-be-designated-cam-and-dcam
I bow to MrEureka, then. I'm just glad to see the term gaining traction. I suppose he and I both arrived at the same term independently. I have no recollection of using it prior to 2006, but it is entirely possible I did. I am pretty sure I'm the first to call 'em "CircCams".
I'm seeking a DB half that looks like the one @tommytype posted. I haven't had one in some time. Only one holey that came along for my Holey Coin Vest after the 1806 O-129 discovery coin was cherrypicked off my vest. And Allen Berman bought my next holey DB half right off the vest at a show because he liked the look of it.
Now I'm seeking an UNholed example for my Eclectic Box. Found one on Collectors Corner I kinda like. We'll see what happens...
I like the look of CircCams.... and good to see LordM posting.... been missing your stories. Cheers, RickO