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The unopened market: From the stratosphere to the exosphere
galaxy27
Posts: 7,131 ✭✭✭✭✭
I threw my hat into the unopened ring back in the latter part of 2012, and that was dangerously akin to waltzing into a club with the lights coming on and expecting to cull the finest female in the joint. I've amassed as much material as I possibly could from then until now, and I've even enjoyed a chunk of the ascension along the way. But last night -- after viewing a 79 Topps BB wax box on the verge of exchanging hands for at least ~$1.8k -- I immediately grabbed my white flag like a ref who just witnessed a chop block. As a financial type by trade, cognitive dissonance is overpowering me now. I desperately want to continue this journey, but I can't justify it any longer. I'm not completely giving up my passion, but as of today I'll no longer be wandering aimlessly with a myopic focus. In fact, I'm currently in the midst of a tangential project that could very well prove to be more gratifying than any case-fresh box I have on my shelf. And at the end of my collecting day, gratification is paramount.
To those who are walking out of the club with PSA 10s of the female persuasion, I couldn't be happier for you. I consider these boards to be a fraternity, hence I can easily appreciate good fortune -- no matter the recipient. Same goes for those who aren't affected one iota by the volatility. Keep procuring the good stuff so I can live vicariously.
But to those who can empathize, how did your one-man intervention go?
To those who are walking out of the club with PSA 10s of the female persuasion, I couldn't be happier for you. I consider these boards to be a fraternity, hence I can easily appreciate good fortune -- no matter the recipient. Same goes for those who aren't affected one iota by the volatility. Keep procuring the good stuff so I can live vicariously.
But to those who can empathize, how did your one-man intervention go?
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Jmaciu's Collection
it's still just a position. and so tough to separate from passion.
then, there's the fulfillment of other goals which didn't emerge during adolescence or early adulthood, but suddenly appeared at a time when i was better prepared to accept them.
the market for cards is quite healthy. a lot of stuff has been taking quantum leaps in value lately. learning to properly interpret the strength of your investments can assist you in the fulfillment of those bigger goals.
i think many folks are doing just that.
Like Galaxy, I can no longer just buy a box at these levels (unless of course it's a second box and I have a buyer lined up for profit) for my collection and as much as I like to see my boxes grow in value, I'd like to see some stabilization for a bit. It only makes sense as PSA values don't even justify some of it.
I too have found another area of collecting (hof rookie high end cards is my favorite) that shows so nicely on display as does unopened. I absolutely love razor sharp corners, color, and centering...it's a beautiful thing. Thanks for starting this thread Galaxy..you're the goods and I appreciate your support when I first joined.
<< <i>BBCE put up a 75 Mini box this morning >>
1975 Topps Baseball Unopened Mini Wax Box. Box contains 36 unopened packs. Box comes from one of our "sealed case breaks" and has "from sealed case" on the bottom sticker! Price: $2,750.00
Doug
Liquidating my collection for the 3rd and final time. Time for others to enjoy what I have enjoyed over the last several decades. Money could be put to better use.
<< <i>I'm lucky. A good portion of what I'm searching for is cheap and no one else is looking. I get to enjoy the pursuit without breaking the bank. A perfect combination. >>
+1
I know what you are saying. It is just so hard to justify the prices. I see that Steve has a 78 wax box on Ebay that is at $2K with 5 days left. Are you kidding me???????? I sold mine last year for $750 and thought I was doing well.
I have been doing packs/cellos and racks of the stuff I like. Trying to remember it is a hobby and not a business. I just want to have fun and enjoy it.
Mark
T206 Set - 300/524
Don't waste your time and fees listing on ebay before getting in touch me by PM or at gregmo32@aol.com !
My want list included a 78 topps wax box and a 80 topps wax box, but unfortunately the prices have just soared, and I cant at the present time validate spending $2,000 on a 78 wax box. I could have bought some of the BBCE website a few years ago for approximately $700, and yeah, like many of you, I'm kicking myself for not pulling the trigger on some of it. I still enjoy what I've accumulated so far, and I'm thankful that I was able to get some stuff before prices went into the stratosphere but its frustrating that I dont have more. Oh well, that is why I find having two things to focus on makes this an easy transition back to my set.
I still love seeing the pictures of people's collections and watching some of the rips that happen here, but for now, I'm out of the market. I just cant compete with the people with the big pockets that seem to be the buyers right now.
Jeremy
James
<< <i>I think in the end we'll realize that over $2K for a '78 wax box was/is classic irrational exuberance, aided by the "group excitement" for unopened that has been fostered by discussions here. There just isn't any rational basis for $60-70 per pack price based either on content value or unopened scarcity. This goes double for a '79 wax box approaching $2K. >>
As much as we think we comprise a high percentage of Steve's buyers of unopened product, I think the bidding pool and buyers for these boxes on ebay are not likely even CU members.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
<< <i>
<< <i>I think in the end we'll realize that over $2K for a '78 wax box was/is classic irrational exuberance, aided by the "group excitement" for unopened that has been fostered by discussions here. There just isn't any rational basis for $60-70 per pack price based either on content value or unopened scarcity. This goes double for a '79 wax box approaching $2K. >>
As much as we think we comprise a high percentage of Steve's buyers of unopened product, I think the bidding pool and buyers for these boxes on ebay are not likely even CU members. >>
Tim is probably right on this. What many here aren't aware of is that there have been several deep-pocketed new entrants to the market over the past 2 years who have been more than doing their share to drive the prices, and they dont really care what they spend in order to get it. What many of us think of as excessive is thought of in the following terms, "...what seems expensive today will be cheap in the future..." (that's as close to a direct quote as I could provide).
Further, those who have this vintage unopened are no longer so quick to part with it. People are holding because its damn near impossible to replace, even if you have the money to pay for it. Supply is just not there. Many of you will not believe this, but I heard an anecdote from a trusted source about a collector who is holding multiple boxes of unopened 1952 (YES, NINETEEN FIFTY-TWO) wax who turned down a multiple 6-figure offer for one of them!
It is not surprising that early 1980s unopened has started moving in sympathy to the pre-1980 material, though nowhere near as rapidly (and probably also held back by only a small handful of unblemished HOFer/major star RCs in that era). And by 1987 we're talking the mass- mass-production era when everyone and their brother/sister/aunt/uncle planned to retire on the millions they were going to make from stashing late 80s/early 90s unopened and factory sets.
The facts are pretty simple. The supply of pre-1980 baseball unopened has very much dried up. Early 80s has generally trended upward following the 70s material (but more on speculation than value IMO). When some pre-1980 material does come up on the market there are several deep-pocketed people who are willing to chase it and aren't worried about setting new sales price records as long as they win the item(s).
And also remember that At the same time, high-end, low pop 70s star cards have also taken off like rockets. Thus, the value of "what's inside" the unopened items
is also rising.
The bulk of my unopened collection is focused between 1970-1977, and I'm not expecting to be able to bring in additional items at anywhere near the rate that I used to be able to do so. And that's both because of limited available supply AND the sigificant increase in the cost of these items. I've been tracking both availability and
offer/selling prices for several years, and the data supports exactly what I have been saying. Prices have risen 2x-3x, while availability has dropped by around 4x-6x.
And this has nothing to do with BBCE-branded shrink-wrap. That's simply an added bonus over-and-above what is happening in the market, as much of what is
offered on the market is re-wrap (let the buyer BEWARE).
That's my take.
Dave
Fess up and let's see some pics!
<< <i>Ok who is sitting on the 52's????
Fess up and let's see some pics! >>
I've got a nickel and a penny pack, but I only collect 1 per year.
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
SL
<< <i>70topps- I totally agree with your thoughts on unopened material and why it is drying up. I am more shocked over the price increase of 1978 to 1980 Topps baseball than any other year. I have yet to see a prestine box wrapped by BBCE sell from 1976. I have seen two 1976 Topps boxes sell for $4K but they looked ratty and were not wrapped by BBCE. Would love to see a nice box of that go to auction. I know of three collectors who need a 1976 Topps box for their collection and I would think a nice one would go for a very large price tag. >>
Huggins and Scott sold some beautiful 1976 boxes at auction last year (1976 Series wrappers), and they were all legitimate. Not sure who got them all (I nabbed one at
a price that was, a the time, the highest ever paid but has subsequently become cheap).
I also was lucky enough to get 20 packs of the "leftover" 1974 wrappered 1976s from BBCE in a board break a few years back. Offered them at National and had very
few takers. Ended up ripping them with my son late last year and had a blast.
And for those who haven't looked at Memory Lane preview yet, it looks like Henry's stash is coming going up on the block. Check out the 1979 Rack Case!!!
Dave
<< <i> I promise not to throw up in your bathroom cup.
SL >>
I think a bunch of us will never forget that nite, especially Dave. He hasn't been the same since!
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
<< <i>70topps- I totally agree with your thoughts on unopened material and why it is drying up. I am more shocked over the price increase of 1978 to 1980 Topps baseball than any other year. I have yet to see a prestine box wrapped by BBCE sell from 1976. I have seen two 1976 Topps boxes sell for $4K but they looked ratty and were not wrapped by BBCE. Would love to see a nice box of that go to auction. I know of three collectors who need a 1976 Topps box for their collection and I would think a nice one would go for a very large price tag. >>
I know one of those three as well. Hah. And to think you offered to sell me a box! Arghhh.
I was also under-bidder on a couple of the 1976s the H&S had last year. Took the bids up to around $3K from what I recall. I do attempt to be rational about it and am not looking to set new records on price. I've got nice empty 1976 boxes sitting on my shelf that will do if necessary.
<< <i>
<< <i>Ok who is sitting on the 52's????
Fess up and let's see some pics! >>
I've got a nickel and a penny pack, but I only collect 1 per year. >>
It's hard for me to imagine a cooler unopened collection photo than this one, Anthony. It's simply amazing.
Sorry for three posts in a row. I wanted to reply to each.
To be devil's advocate, if tomorrow you learned a guy had 100 boxes of unopened 1972 topps 5/6 series, do you think you would all of a sudden get one for 5K vs. 10K? My prediction is prices keep going up, and that it is pretty much over for 1977 and prior. And you can already see what is happening with 1978 - 1980. And as far as 1981 +, I'm in no hurry. Regardless of prices rising. I'm too old to see these hit a crazy price, like $1k/box.
Finally, someone mentioned on this thread that there are some people that will pay whatever it takes to obtain. . I think we all may be guilty of this. I admit, I feel desparate at times. . .and if I see something I like, I pucker up and get it. . .might be the last time I see it again.
But I still have to move things around to accommodate other stuff...regretfully at this point.
But most of the stuff I have bought have doubled, some tripled in price! 1987 unfortunately is still the same price.
My headlong dive into unopened came a few years after this starting in 2010 when I found a GAI 9.5 1985 Donruss rack with a Kirby Puckett on front. I have a masters degree in business and have studied a bit of the investment wine market and collectables concert poster market so I thought what the hell I can probably do this and decided to make an investment grade unopened collection because of the opportunity I saw the recession providing. My first collecting goal was obtain every HOF rookie card showing on a graded pack starting with the class of 2000 and adding more as each next HOF class is announced. (I have been able to get all but one to date). My second collecting goal was to win the PSA best unopened pack set of the year award. I started two sets that I thought would have a shot at it. The first my pride and joy which I encourage all reading this to join the registry was the major rookie cards of the 1980s showing cello packs and the second was a collection of the basketball packs from 1961-90. The latter set was of course the award winner so I'm glad I did both. This set also allowed me to go after the major basketball rookie cards showing packs too which led to the pride of my collection a '61 Chamberlain pack. My third collecting goal was to get one box each of my favorite boxes and I was able to get GAI graded 1974 and 1975 baseball boxes a 1974, and several 1976 and 87 basketball, as well as 1984 football. I wish I had bought more boxes like everyone else as the prices have run significantly but also feel happy to have what I've gotten.
Along the way after catching the bug I wanted to put together the best Paul Molitor, Cal Ripken, Tony Gwynn, Roger Clemens, and Barry Bonds unopened rookie collections. And while you never really know what is out there in other collections I think by going off the PSA pop reports at least I've put together either the number 1 or 2 collections. If I had to start out at today's prices though I don't know if I would. For example when I started buying Cal Ripken packs they were only $45 but now the PSA 9s have gone for six times that.
So it's plain to see the prices have gone up significantly for unopened but I think they will continue to steadily increase further from here....but probably not as largely as we have seen in the last 2 years. And while I probably won't be picking up any more 1970s unopened boxes or significant amounts of the player rookie packs I've collected in the past, I do see one years boxes and two players that I am buying aggressively today with hopes of putting together two more top collections of their unopened rookie packs.
The fun still continues!!
Join the Rookie stars on top PSA registry today:
1980-1989 Cello Packs - Rookies
Now there's probably only two things that will help prices slide a bit... another economic downturn or the formation (and subsequent popping) of a bubble. It'll be interested to see how far the market goes. Just being that we're talking about collectibles here, there's always going to be a battle between holding on to items in your collection or parting with some things when the price is right.
Anyone that was stocking up on hockey wax a decade ago did real well.
Today, one box is offered at 2,750 and is gone just as fast, which works out to 42,500 for a loose case. What is that sealed case worth now?
Just amazing.
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
<< <i>
To be devil's advocate, if tomorrow you learned a guy had 100 boxes of unopened 1972 topps 5/6 series, do you think you would all of a sudden get one for 5K vs. 10K? My prediction is prices keep going up, and that it is pretty much over for 1977 and prior. >>
I think the best model for this is the auctioning of the Conlon collection. With the massive release of his unopened material in a short period of time, prices quickly dropped by close to 50%. Fast forward four years later and those boxes now sell for twice as much as they did prior to this sell-off, sometimes even more. That's all the more impressive when you consider that so many of the boxes are heavily populated with poorly centered cards. So a massive dump can have a temporary impact on the market, but the market also quickly recovers when that material gets devoured.
-I think the market is definitely a bubble, totally unsustainable. I think we're at the stage of "this time it's different". Prices are going to keep going up forever, because ____. It reminds me of tesla and tech stocks. The price rises are uneconomical.
The unopened market has gone in waves before. Vintage wax was extremely cheap in the 80's. Then a bump in the 90's. Mark Murphy ads, etc. Then things were flat. Then when grading took off, prices went up. Things will probably cool off in 5 years.
<< <i>
<< <i>
To be devil's advocate, if tomorrow you learned a guy had 100 boxes of unopened 1972 topps 5/6 series, do you think you would all of a sudden get one for 5K vs. 10K? My prediction is prices keep going up, and that it is pretty much over for 1977 and prior. >>
I think the best model for this is the auctioning of the Conlon collection. With the massive release of his unopened material in a short period of time, prices quickly dropped by close to 50%. Fast forward four years later and those boxes now sell for twice as much as they did prior to this sell-off, sometimes even more. That's all the more impressive when you consider that so many of the boxes are heavily populated with poorly centered cards. So a massive dump can have a temporary impact on the market, but the market also quickly recovers when that material gets devoured. >>
The sale of the Conlon cases is a very good example~when all those cases were auctioned off, prices on 75 mini wax boxes dropped from about $1,300 to $900 overnight. Within a couple of years, prices were back up to 2K and fast forward to today when a box on the BBCE site sells for $2,750 in a matter of minutes.
I expect the prices on these boxes to level off at some point, but I've been following the unopened market on a daily basis for about 15 years now, and I don't see prices falling at any point barring a recession. Leveling off? Yes, at some point (though we've been saying that for a while now, too). But the days of $500 1978 Topps baseball wax boxes (or even 1K 78 wax boxes) will not revisited, imo.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
The only thing I think could blow things apart is a huge warehouse find. I've always been wary of '59 and up low pop cards because I think if Fritsch ran his business like a business instead of a museum the pops would flood the market. Same deal on packs, assuming he's got any.
A few years ago a friend came across a deal on a 200,000 square foot warehouse packed to the ceiling with '80's and 90's wax. The guy was holding out of fantasy prices, but if someone can hang onto boxes of '54 and '55 Topps and Bowman packs (see Alan Rosen's Paris, Tenn find) then it's certainly reasonable there are cases of '70's floating around somewhere. That would turn into a buyers market like we saw when Charlie Conlon passed away- he was trickling out mini boxes at $1300-$1400 a box (a bit less if he liked you) but once the market was flooded $800-$850 was the norm for a while.
Either way, in the long term I think there will be ebbs and flows of valuation, but overall a steady, if not meteoric upward swing. Look at the supply on Steve Hart's site over the last few years, and look at all the threads about group rips. Supply down, demand up. What could make that equation realistically change?
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
For me, the only thing that would make it change is an external factor, namely confidence in authenticity. With PSA not grading these items anymore and even BBCE occasionally getting it wrong (no one's infallible, and the fakes were well crafted), one has to have a huge amount of confidence in the source and provenance of an unopened piece to plunk down 10k+ for a box of early to 70s. I'm talking a la carte box sales, because I'd imagine a sealed case is easier to authenticate than a solo wax box?
Instagram: mattyc_collection
<< <i>Griffins, your pack collection is amazing; looks like art to me. The wrappers in and of themselves are artwork, let alone the time capsule nature of the never-before-touched contents. Can't wait for the next show, also.
For me, the only thing that would make it change is an external factor, namely confidence in authenticity. With PSA not grading these items anymore and even BBCE occasionally getting it wrong (no one's infallible, and the fakes were well crafted), one has to have a huge amount of confidence in the source and provenance of an unopened piece to plunk down 10k+ for a box of early to 70s. I'm talking a la carte box sales, because I'd imagine a sealed case is easier to authenticate than a solo wax box? >>
Thanks for the kind words, and I hope you can make the show. Please say hi if you do. Edited to add just realized who you are, looking forward to seeing you guys again.
We've been thru a lot of this before- GAI started about '03, but by about '07 when Ryan Rutter and his grocery cellos were authenticated there was no confidence in pack authentication. Prices dropped, and some big unopened collectors (Larry S. comes to mind) got out of the hobby. PSA started grading packs in late '06 but it took a while, but eventually the market came back. But now the supply has dried up, and what most people collect (hoard!) on this board are boxes of unopened, which was never authenticated, other than Steve (who is the best there is, flaws or not) giving it a thumbs up. I think we're going to be ok, whether or not PSA grades individual packs.
Always looking for Topps Salesman Samples, pre '51 unopened packs, E90-2, E91a, N690 Kalamazoo Bats, and T204 Square Frame Ramly's
To me the biggest reason is lack of product to rip. We just aren't even seeing many boxes at any price last long enough to coordinate a rip. It will be interesting to see what they are able to bring to and buy at the national this year...
ebay id Duffs_Dugout
My Ebay Auctions
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Instagram: mattyc_collection