1986/87 Fleer Basketball Box...How many are left?

jordangretzkyfan · March 1, 2014 4:10AM

I have not seen a legit box for public sale since BBCE had three of them at the 2012 National. Heck, even the resealed boxes that used to come up on eBay are absent. So I wanted to get opinions from this group on how many legit boxes you think exist? With the majority ripped over the past 25 year Jordan craze, my guess is that there are about 25-30 left.

Anyone on these boards have one stashed away?

grote15 · March 1, 2014 4:15AM

I would say for an issue that recent, even with the Jordan craze, the number would be fairly high. If I had to guess, I'd say 100 cases, but that is just a guesstimate. I'm sure there are a number of cases in private collections that won't see the market anytime soon.

canjond · March 1, 2014 4:50AM

Although I have no opinion as to how many boxes, in total, are left, I personally know of at least 4 cases (note I said cases, not boxes). There is a friend here in NYC who still has 3 original cases which were purchased in 1988. He is an advance (albeit private) collector and well aware of the value. I also know of a long time collector in the Albany area who has a case.

hyperchipper09 · March 1, 2014 4:51AM

More than many would think is my guess.

gemint · March 1, 2014 4:52AM

Not sure how many are left but the funny thing is I was thinking back last night about all those Donruss and Fleer baseball boxes I bought that year wishing I bought Fleer basketball instead.

cpamike · March 1, 2014 5:03AM

<< Not sure how many are left but the funny thing is I was thinking back last night about all those Donruss and Fleer baseball boxes I bought that year wishing I bought Fleer basketball instead. >>

Join the club.

grote15 · March 1, 2014 5:10AM

D-bone, tell us again, about that great call you made back in '87??

markmac · March 1, 2014 5:13AM

I know of a guy in my area who had a case as recently as 3 years ago. It was supposedly stolen and I was called by an insurance agent (a friend of miine who is also an agent knew I was knowledgeable on the subject) and asked if $100,000 was an appropriate amount. I gave him the Dave and Adams article which had a buy it price of over that. I haven't heard much about it since so I wonder where that 12 box case wound up.

jordangretzkyfan · March 1, 2014 5:22AM

<< Although I have no opinion as to how many boxes, in total, are left, I personally know of at least 4 cases (note I said cases, not boxes). There is a friend here in NYC who still has 3 original cases which were purchased in 1988. He is an advance (albeit private) collector and well aware of the value. I also know of a long time collector in the Albany area who has a case. >>

I love to hear stories about "knowing someone" with cases. I salivate at the thought of a few still being out there and hope to someday see one. There have only been five cases to surface since 1995. Three were made available by Mark Murphy by the box and then Dave & Adam's had two cases with the last found in 2005. It has been nearly a 10 year drought for a case find. With BBCE now paying $12,500 a box, I am hoping some come out of the woodwork.

Tim - no chance of 100 cases being out there unless Fritsch is sitting on them. Maybe 10 at the very most, but I seriously doubt even that many remain. I hope I am wrong as I would love to add a box at some point.

grote15 · March 1, 2014 5:26AM

<< 

<< Although I have no opinion as to how many boxes, in total, are left, I personally know of at least 4 cases (note I said cases, not boxes). There is a friend here in NYC who still has 3 original cases which were purchased in 1988. He is an advance (albeit private) collector and well aware of the value. I also know of a long time collector in the Albany area who has a case. >>

I love to hear stories about "knowing someone" with cases. I salivate at the thought of a few still being out there and hope to someday see one. There have only been five cases to surface since 1995. Three were made available by Mark Murphy by the box and then Dave & Adam's had two cases with the last found in 2005. It has been nearly a 10 year drought for a case find. With BBCE now paying $12,500 a box, I am hoping some come out of the woodwork.

Tim - no chance of 100 cases being out there unless Fritsch is sitting on them. Maybe 10 at the very most, but I seriously doubt even that many remain. I hope I am wrong as I would love to add a box at some point. >>

You may very well be correct, but if one guy here within 5 minutes can account for 4 cases, I think 100 cases in total may very well be possible. There are also a lot of private collectors who bought product years ago but who don't plan on selling. If it were a 1976-77 issue, I'd say 100 cases may be too high, but by 1986-87, hoarding of sealed cases was already in full swing. Don't forget, too, this was smack dab in the hobby heyday.

jordangretzkyfan · March 1, 2014 5:38AM

Fair points Tim and I hope you are right. At that quantity, a find of two cases would drop box prices well below $10,000 again. That would give me many more opportunities to buy. Thanks to all for their perspective.

galaxy27 · March 1, 2014 5:49AM

Based on Reed's post less than a month ago on the BBCE FB page, I'd say there's a very good chance that at least one will be prominently displayed in Cleveland.

Dboneesq · March 1, 2014 6:17AM

<< D-bone, tell us again, about that great call you made back in '87?? >>

Tim ... I found one of the threads I responded to on this subject:

Sunday January 17, 2010 9:07 PM

Mike ... back in the late 80s, when I was selling and buying at shows every friggin weekend (more buying than selling),
I had the opportunity to buy as many boxes of 86 Fleer Basketball as I wanted for $10 - $15 per box. But I knew it all ...
those things were not worth it! LOL So instead I bought a couple thousand dollars worth of 1988 Fleer and Donruss
BASEBALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That $2,000 invested in FL BB wax @ $15 per box would be worth over ONE MILLION today. great move, eh? LMFAO

And today it's probably closer to TWO MILLION.

grote15 · March 1, 2014 6:32AM

Doug,

Truthfully after reading that post, I feel bad for even mentioning it, lol...

dmurphy3mvp · March 1, 2014 7:09AM

<< Although I have no opinion as to how many boxes, in total, are left, I personally know of at least 4 cases (note I said cases, not boxes). There is a friend here in NYC who still has 3 original cases which were purchased in 1988. He is an advance (albeit private) collector and well aware of the value. I also know of a long time collector in the Albany area who has a case. >>

We have stated on our website and in our ads in various publications that we will pay $1,000 cash just to see a sealed 1986/87 Fleer Basketball Case, in person. That, along with the fact that we've never paid out on this since I started at BBCE in 2010 (and even the years prior while at DACW), should let you know how many truly exist. If I had a dollar for every time somebody told me they had a case or even knew someone who has a case, we could finance a huge party at the National for board members.

My reasoning for there being few (less than five) or zero sealed cases left in the hobby is there have been way too many opportunities to cash out on this product at its peak. No matter how rich someone is or doesn't have the need to sell, there were many times over the past 28 years to sell while hot:

When Beckett started publishing a basketball price guide
After Jordan won his first championship
After Jordan retired for the first time in 1993
When Jordan came back in 1995
After Jordan won his sixth championship and retired again
When Jordan returned to the Wizards
When Jordan retired for the third and final time
When GAI started grading boxes
When Jordan was inducted into the HOF

No matter how much you paid for the case, whether in 1986 or 1996, why wouldn't you have taken your profit when the case price hit $50K? $100K? Every case that surfaced in the 90s went to Mark Murphy. Every case in the early/mid-00s went to DACW. We're trying our hardest to be the one who uncovers the next (last?) case in the hobby.

I was at DACW when I bought the last case to surface in 2005 from a collector in San Antonio, TX, and he definitely didn't need the money. Every person who (seriously) claimed they had a sealed case, when pressed to prove it, have always backed down or simply stopped communicating with us. Canjond, if you can make it happen, it'll be the easiest grand you'll ever make!

parkerj · March 1, 2014 7:29AM

I know a guy who has a case as well. Bought for $80 in 1986! Sitting in a bank vault now.

His dealer friend in 1986 wanted to buy some cases and was short on funds to meet his minimum order. So he needed him to go in with him for at least a case. So he did it on condition he would also get a full set from his friend which he also still has.

That's a deal!

canjond · March 1, 2014 7:57AM

Reed-while I certainly appreciate the offer, as I'm sure you can imagine, certain private collectors aren't necessarily motivated to let it be known what they have in a public setting, or even let it be known what they own. That said, one of the gentlemen I was referring to is a member of these boards, so I'm sure that if he wants to take you up on the offer, he will certainly let it be known.

ReggieCleveland · March 1, 2014 8:47AM

I'm thinking Tim is more right than he is wrong.

ReggieCleveland · March 1, 2014 8:51AM

The other thing to consider is that if someone is a private collector and doesn't want what they own known, and they're rich enough to own one (or more) cases of 86 basketball and don't (and never did) need to sell despite the explosion, then $1,000 is nowhere near enough to make them talk. That's like someone offering me $0.10 to see my unopened collection. Not worth what I desire the most.

ETA: No offense to Reed or BBCE, their offer is certainly a generous one. I'm just guessing it's not a sum that would make me contact them if my main concern was keeping my collection quiet.

dmurphy3mvp · March 1, 2014 9:12AM

Reggie Cleveland, I totally agree with you. If you managed to keep a case all these years, then you definitely don't need the money, and a grand won't mean that much. Our offer would be in strict confidence; we're not trying to out them, but rather satisfy our curiosity, and are willing to pay for the right to see it. For a $1,000, we could a) verify that a sealed still does exist (we get asked this question A LOT), b) introduce ourselves to the owner, and let them know if/when they wish to sell, we are interested (we just gave them a grand, so that shows our interest, plus should they call in the future, we at least know their case actually exists), and c) now we have a great story to tell.

I've never understood why people like to tell tall tales about what they have in their collection or what someone they know has, but you can imagine some of the whoppers we have heard in our day. It's not just limited to us; I'm sure every dealer as well as collectors have had some ridiculous stories that have been laid on them. Maybe the person likes to get dealers all riled up about the chance to buy the deal of the century, like baiting the mouse with cheese. I won't bite on imaginary cheese.

1980scollector · March 1, 2014 9:18AM

<< I know a guy who has a case as well. Bought for $80 in 1986! Sitting in a bank vault now.

His dealer friend in 1986 wanted to buy some cases and was short on funds to meet his minimum order. So he needed him to go in with him for at least a case. So he did it on condition he would also get a full set from his friend which he also still has.

That's a deal! >>

How do you store a case of Fleer in a bank vault? Never seen a safety deposit box that big.

grote15 · March 1, 2014 9:18AM

Reed, I'm sure there are many collectors who tell tall tales when it comes to their collections, but there are also more than a few collectors out there with impressive hoards of product who just don't want/need any attention or publicity, for reasons that make perfect sense to them, at least.

itzagoner · March 1, 2014 9:18AM

i'd imagine folks who have a case(s) in their possession would prefer to resist opening themselves up to further persuasion. it ain't the 1000 bucks, it's all about letting much more than that walk in the door. then, it might be tougher to say no to on-the-spot crazy sick high dollar offers.

gregmo32 · March 1, 2014 9:19AM

Over a hundred cases, minimum.

ReggieCleveland · March 1, 2014 10:10AM

<< Reggie Cleveland, I totally agree with you. If you managed to keep a case all these years, then you definitely don't need the money, and a grand won't mean that much. Our offer would be in strict confidence; we're not trying to out them, but rather satisfy our curiosity, and are willing to pay for the right to see it. For a $1,000, we could a) verify that a sealed still does exist (we get asked this question A LOT), b) introduce ourselves to the owner, and let them know if/when they wish to sell, we are interested (we just gave them a grand, so that shows our interest, plus should they call in the future, we at least know their case actually exists), and c) now we have a great story to tell.

I've never understood why people like to tell tall tales about what they have in their collection or what someone they know has, but you can imagine some of the whoppers we have heard in our day. It's not just limited to us; I'm sure every dealer as well as collectors have had some ridiculous stories that have been laid on them. Maybe the person likes to get dealers all riled up about the chance to buy the deal of the century, like baiting the mouse with cheese. I won't bite on imaginary cheese. >>

I completely understand where you're coming from. I just think that there are a lot fo big collectors out there that value their privacy more than anything else. You guys have a great reputation and I'm sure that when the time comes they would contact you about selling it. But in the meantime, there's no reason to do so. If someone is sitting on one or more cases of 86 basketball then their collection as a whole is quite impressive. It's not as simple as "swing by the next time you're in the neighborhood" type stuff. Folks like that have setups more secure than bank vaults and part of the reason they're more secure is because of their privacy.

While the point of all the different levels of explosion are valid, it's also a valid reason not to sell or make public your stash. If something keeps going up at bananas prices and one doesn't have an immediate need for the need for the cash, no point in letting the cat out of the bag.

This isn't an attempt to devalue a case of 86 basketball. I highly doubt that if multiple cases hit the market it would affect pack prices at all, just too much demand. In fact, it might help. As was mentioned previously, there hasn't been a public sale for a legit box in years so I'm guessing a new discovery would set historic highs.

jordangretzkyfan · March 1, 2014 11:01AM

This has turned into a great discussion, which is what I was hoping for.

Canjond - since you have made it clear that the case is not yours, would it be fair for you to post a picture of your friends case so they can protect their anonymity? It would give this board a huge thrill to see a sealed case and also protect the owner. I am simply looking to confirm one still exists. No need for me to see it in person when a picture of the sealed case can do the same thing. Thanks for helping to verify what I have been dying to see.

I would also make the same request to the two other gentlemen who have claimed to know of one. This would be a thrill to see and we can protect the actual owners identity by you posting the photos.

DM23HOF · March 1, 2014 11:15AM

Wouldn't it be better to own and admire a nice Jordan PSA 10 (and have a ton of cash left over) than stare at a sealed cardboard box/case? Just genuinely askin'.

grote15 · March 1, 2014 11:35AM

<< Wouldn't it be better to own and admire a nice Jordan PSA 10 (and have a ton of cash left over) than stare at a sealed cardboard box/case? Just genuinely askin'. >>

A guy who can afford to hold on to that case in this market, can likely afford to have both.

tedh111 · March 1, 2014 11:50AM

Supposedly, A case changed hands in the last 6 weeks in the Philly area. It has not been confirmed but is somewhat believable based on what else was in the collection.

canjond · March 1, 2014 12:32PM

<< This has turned into a great discussion, which is what I was hoping for.

Canjond - since you have made it clear that the case is not yours, would it be fair for you to post a picture of your friends case so they can protect their anonymity? It would give this board a huge thrill to see a sealed case and also protect the owner. I am simply looking to confirm one still exists. No need for me to see it in person when a picture of the sealed case can do the same thing. Thanks for helping to verify what I have been dying to see.

I would also make the same request to the two other gentlemen who have claimed to know of one. This would be a thrill to see and we can protect the actual owners identity by you posting the photos. >>

Apologies if I wasn't clear before - none the cases are mine (hope I didn't imply that was the "case"... no pun intended).

As for taking photos, while I would consider both of these gentlemen to be hobby friends, that's not something you readily ask someone to do, especially given the economics here. Some people highly value anonymity, and I don't think it's appropriate for me to ask to take photos. To that point, while I wish I had the type of access where I could just knock on the door and be invited inside for coffee and to talk cards, at least with one of these collectors, it's most certainly an "invitation only" type affair.

As for the NYC collector I referred to, I guess I should also make clear that I haven't personally viewed his cases, but I have personally viewed parts of his multimillion dollar (and utterly breathtaking) baseball memorabilia collection, and there is absolutely no reason to doubt what he says he owns. Also, as mentioned previously, one of the owners is most definitely a board member, who is welcome to identify himself.

I guess the final point I'll make is that both owners who I'm referring to are very astute and very knowledgeable advanced collectors. Neither are going to need help finding the right avenues to market and sell if/when the time is right. Both are fully aware of what they own, and although I'm certainly not privy to either gentleman's personal finances, I'm very very confident neither finds themselves needing to sell at any given moment. Frankly, regardless of how the value may swing, my gut tells me that would just be a rounding error for them. In other words, "peak" of the market matters very little.

thenavarro · March 1, 2014 12:56PM

<< Over a hundred cases, minimum. >>

That's my opinion as well

Mike

BLUEJAYWAY · March 1, 2014 5:55PM

Maybe one day some packs/boxes/cases encased in either tin cans/metal cases, will be unearthed on someones property, somewhat like the recent gold hoard discovery out West.

fergie23 · March 1, 2014 8:22PM

I think the number is closer to 5 than to 100 cases left.
People keep talking about these heavyweight hoarders/collectors with bank vaults and million dollar collections that decided to add an unopened case of 86 fleer basketball. The fact of the matter is that more high grade (8,9,10) 52 Topps Mantles (pop ~42) have been sold in the last 10 years than 1986 Fleer basketball cases. Unopened is a niche market and most of the actual hobby heavyweights have never been interested in it. I would guess 15-20.
Very fun and interesting discussion though.

Robb

flatfoot816 · March 1, 2014 8:45PM

MORNING BOYS!

I tend to agree with Tim I think that there are a lot more than anyone thinks. Look at the # of Jordans that have been graded in this time period--just under 14,000. At even 3 per box that comes out to about 4,666 boxes. I would think that if anyone busted the product they would have had the Jordan graded--the vast majority of people anyway.

Someone said that there are only 12 boxes per case--I thought there were 20.

At 12 boxes per case that would be about 388 cases. At 20 boxes per case that would even be lower--233 cases.

Are you kidding me? This is by no means scientific, but those #s can't even be close to what was produced by Fleer. So where are all the Jordan cards then. Some left raw? OK sure--but most would be graded I am sure. Some unopened single boxes? Ok sure--but enough to make up all that production? I doubt it.

I mean Fleer would have had to produce 1000s of cases. So where are all the Jordans if they did? Let's assume that they printed 5,000 cases--which is not a lot. At 12 boxes per case that would be about 60,000 boxes--or about 180,000 Jordans. At 20 boxes it would be about 100,000 boxes--or about 300,000 Jordans.

SO where are the Jordan rookie cards if everything has been busted?

jordangretzkyfan · March 1, 2014 9:51PM

Thanks to all for their perspective as this has helped further clarify my thoughts on what still exists. This board contains some of the most knowledgable folks in the hobby, a few hobby heavyweights and many connections to the big collectors who are not on this board. Through the comments so far, here is what I sumize:

1) 3 cases are reported to be in NYC, 1 in Albany, 1 in a bank vault, 1 stolen and 1 in Philly...yet no one has actually ever seen one.
2) Reed has been connected to DACW and BBCE for the past 15 years and there have only been two cases found by the top dealers.
3) People speculate there are 100+ cases left, yet we haven't managed to produce a photo of a single legit box, much less a case.

Using Flatfoots math below, 388 cases ever opened seems about right recognizing two facts: 1) basketball cards were so unpopular in the 80's that Topps stopped producing them in 1981 and 2) Fleer offered full value refund of $80 for unsold cases sent back to the factory to be destroyed. I know two dealers who actually did this to recoup money when the boxes couldn't be sold for $5/box.

Robb makes one of the best observations in that there are only a handful of the mega collectors that collect unopened at all. Most collect vintage singles and they love to showcase what the have. Even the Wagner PSA 8 has changed hands and been documented multiple times, yet no documented cases of 86/87 Fleer exist. I think we would all agree that the big dogs would brag if they landed one. SMR has featured many of the top collections and not one 86/87 Fleer case has surfaced. 86/87 Fleer is simply the one modern day marvel that everyone had the chance to land, but no one ever saw coming until 1990 when it was too late and the cases were long since opened or returned to Fleer.

As much as I would love to believe they are still out there, the fact remains no one has seen one or can produce a photo. Obviously it is impossible to prove something doesn't exist, but if it does there are certainly a handful of 5 or less at best. I am sure one or two will someday show up in a Black Swamp find or 1958 Football Cello Antiques Roadshow, but for now they remain more illusive than Bigfoot.

BBCE · March 2, 2014 12:27AM

This is a great, great discussion. It's one of the things I enjoy most in this hobby. Let me start by saying that what I am about to write below is not being smug or arrogant. I'm not saying it to point at anyone else's opinion on this board. It's only from my experience.

There are zero cases left.

I have not seen a case since the National in 1993? In Chicago where Hit and Run from Vegas had a case for $144,000.00.

Since then, I have not seen a case.

I have yet to see a ghost, so until I do, there are zero.
I have yet to see a UFO, so until I do, there are zero.
Big Foot (or Sasquatch or Yeti, if you prefer) same thing.
Loch Ness, just the same.

In every major auction, there I items I am blown away by, where only 1 exists.

Babe Ruth's watch.
Joe Jackson rookie bat.
Jerseys Ruth, Gehrig, Mantle etc wore for this game for this at bat.
And on and on and on.

When Mastronet was the king, they had items in every catalogue that should have been in the Hall of Fame or even better.

But yet, no major auction house has EVER had a case. In fact, hasn't it been years since a real BOX hit the auction blocks?

Also, I know where a lot of the private collections are that don't ever hit publicly. They are completely silent and under the radar (of course, I don't know them all). In fact, I have been put into many wills by these people that the items are to be sold by me to realize the max sale, then just take my usual cut, then make sure the wife and kids are giving the fullest amount possible.

But yet, not one of these people has a case of 86/87 fleer basketball.

Why is it the only people that own them are the private people, who don't need the money, who stay under the radar and don't want anyone to know? Surely, at least one case should be in the hands of people who have 7 and 8 figure collections. Nope....not one.

Kind of makes me think that the people who seem to get abducted by aliens seem to be the people who need to get abducted by aliens, or who still regularly take acid trips.

If someone offered me $25,000 to see a case, I could not take them up on the offer.

I have had buys of $75,0000, then $100k, then 125k, then $150k, now $185k and have never even gotten someone to call me with a hoax or a bluff.

I remember when I had my small store in the early 90's and someone would come in with an autographed Jordan item. When I asked where they got it, they would say they had a friend who worked at the Chicago Stadium. As time went by, I realized that the Stadium had to employee 100,000 people and every single one of them had friends that visited my store!!

Yes, I have heard dozens and dozens of stories from people who know someone who has one or two cases. How is it possible then that not one single case has materialized in decades? Maybe every American has too much money and doesn't need the money?

Ok, 1 time offer.....$250,000 for a case. If someone brings me 3, I only need 1.
Also, $16,000 for real, true boxes.

Again, I'm not trying to be the "know it all". I'm just saying what my experience has been.
If threads like this come up more often, I would chime in a lot more. Great discussion!

So, please I hope like heck that there is 1 or some out there!!!!

Steelernation · March 2, 2014 12:42AM

Bbce, steve?

Great discussion and thanks for your input, your very educated opinion. Very good read.

I'm sure i speak for many here in that you write in more.

Dpeck100 · March 2, 2014 12:49AM

There is a wrestling card collector who I know has a large stash of boxes. He is the last person I would have thought would. I am going to guess there are more then people think.

Rogermnj · March 2, 2014 12:51AM

Not sure about cases but I sold 10 boxes from 1996-2010 to a private collector in NJ. 1 came from BBCE.
One box has 4 jordans showing through top of pack and one box has 2 jordan rookies on top and bottom of pack with hand written letter from Mark Murphy stating it came from sealed case.

This collector will never sell and wouldnt show you his collection for 10,000 let alone 1,000. Not that anyone is offering to see boxes.

ALL the boxes I sold came from mark murphy or BBCE so i believe them to be legit.
There are VERY private collectors out there. Some dont even really enjoy the cards they have. They look at collectibles as a diversified portfolio.
The collector i sold to doesnt even know what he has, he's a coin guy who wanted to invest some money into cards.
He has 5 jordan psa 10 86 fleers and 93 sp jeter along with some other key rookies.

I would be SHOCKED if 0 cases existed. I think some people underestimate how much money people have and how putting a couple hundred thousand into a card collection as part of their investment strategy means very little to them.

By the way, hi

First post in a few years, just wanted to chime in.

Hows Everybody doing?

ReggieCleveland · March 2, 2014 1:41AM

This is a great discussion. Jordangretzkyfan, I don't think the fact that after a day or two a thread on CU hasn't produced a scan or picture is very telling. The CU community is a minute fraction of the collecting community. Heck, all the message boards on the internet combined are a small fraction of the collecting community. So the sample size we're talking about is far below anything a statistician would accept as reasonable.

Steve, you're certainly the best barometer of what's out there. I certainly can't confirm the existence of a case so I can only offer speculation. But there's also the real possibility that all the cases that were in the hands of people that might be looking to sell have, in fact, been sold. A sealed case is certainly a very high-dollar item and those things tend to find their way into private sales. If I were wealthy and I had a case, this thread would only confirm to me to 1.) not sell it and 2.) not make it known that I had one.

dmurphy3mvp · March 2, 2014 1:53AM

I'm so glad Steve chimed in on this (seeing that I'm not supposed to post.)

With regards to how many Jordans were printed, in the late-90s a high-level Fleer executive told me in there were 250,000 of each card printed for 1986/87 Fleer Basketball. Is this a realistic number? I suppose so, considering it was their first basketball product. He also said because of the product's disappointing reception on the market, they cut production in half for 1987/88. Now, do I believe this person? I'm sure I wasn't the first, and won't be the last, to ask him this question. I have no reason to believe why anyone who was familiar with production numbers would even care to remember these figures. By the time anyone was curious about print run for this product, a few years had gone by, and anyone at Fleer by that time was more concerned about baseball. Like just about any issue produced up until the 2000s, I doubt anyone knows the true print run of any issue, because nobody really cared to document the information or bother to remember it. Having met and dealt with a few dozen manufacturer employees, from line workers up to the executives and board members, almost none of them were actually card collectors who get geeked up on information that we seek. It was just a job to them.

This means +/-6,400 cases were produced of 1986/87 Fleer Basketball. I won't begin to guess how many cases were broken down for box/pack sales in that first year, nor will I even hazard a guess how many were returned, but I'm with Steve - I've heard it all and just want some proof. The $1,000 is sort of the bait for someone to prove me wrong - make me eat my words if you will. (I'm sure a few would take great pleasure it this.)

Flatfoot816 (Manny?) example about where all the Jordans are, possibly still unopened, to me isn't a fair explanation of where all the Jordans are. If there were 100 cases still in the hobby, and if there were 1,000 boxes unopened still in the hobby - both of which are absolutely absurd figures - that would account for only +/-7,000 Jordans still unopened. There's probably at least 8-10 times that amount of Jordan rookies lying dormant in collections of individuals that don't collect. There's also a similar amount of Jordan rookies that are part of an active collector's stash that aren't graded because they don't want to. I feel just because a small percentage of the print run is graded doesn't mean it's still out there in unopened form.

A good example of this is 1993 Topps Finest Baseball. Topps stated a print run of 4,000 cases. Doing the math, it can be determined there are 241 refractors of each player (not taking into account short prints, backdoored cards, etc.) A quick glance shows there are roughly 100 of each refractor in PSA holders (have to adjust some numbers a bit for cracking and resubmitting.) Where are the rest of the refractors? Some lie in collections unknowingly, since back in 1993 many people couldn't figure out what a refractor looked like (and to this day some still can't.) The overwhelming majority lie in dormant collections of individuals who don't collect - the mass exodus of collectors who left in the mid/late-90s. I find 1993 Finest Refractors all the time in the collections I buy. Where are the rest? There are probably a few thousand boxes out there, but cases are a different story. I won't pay $1,000 just to see one, but considering how desirable this product was from day one, and therefore easy to hoard, there aren't many left to account for the "where are the rest?" quantity.

With regards to the private collectors who have these cases, how and whem did they acquire them? If they did so in 1986, citing investment purposes, well we know that's BS. Those are the same people who claim they bought Microsoft on day one, haven't sold any shares yet, and can't put together enough cash to change the muffler on their car. So let's say they decided to do so in the early/mid-90s, when the case was worth at least five figures. Who sold it to them? Most likely a dealer. Dealers absolutely love to tell stories about their best deals; they are quite the opposite of private. I haven't even heard of a dealer SELLING a case in the last 20 years.

Bigfoot, indeed.

tsalems1 · March 2, 2014 1:58AM

A board member here has all the rest of the 1993 refractors
http://www.philg.comxa.com/

doog71 · March 2, 2014 2:29AM

<< A board member here has all the rest of the 1993 refractors
http://www.philg.comxa.com/ >>

Only 2 Mattinglys? Lightweight.

miconelegacy · March 2, 2014 2:35AM

WOW that's a lot of Refractors. Nice collection. Will prob double in value over next 10 years or so. Even a half. Sweet investment portfolio of cards.

jordangretzkyfan · March 2, 2014 2:39AM

Glad Steve shared his valuable perspective on his experiences. Another area that likely warrants consideration is how many we're produced. Assess these facts:

1) PSA + BGS have graded a combined 21,000 Jordan RC's
2) Next highest card submitted from set is Barkley/Malone at 6,000 each
3) If a Jordan is raw, it is largely considered fake in today's market; therefore 90% or more will have been submitted
4) The submission spread on Jordan vs. Malone is over 3 to 1 and a large function of crack and resubmit hoping for higher grades on Jordan
5) This means best scenario there are 20,000 Jordan rookies in existence (I believe closer to 15,000 actually)
6) At 3.27 sets per box, Fleer would have sold 6,000 boxes which is 500 cases total
7) No auction houses have ever had a case despite unearthing some of the worlds rarest items
8) In no scenario can there be 100+ cases remaining

I am exactly where Steve is. 1 or 2 cases may be hiding out there, but odds are zero. This would likely put the legit box count at less than 50 given many from the Mark Murphy days were broken for packs. Great discussion so far. This is what makes the hobby fun!

Dusto · March 2, 2014 2:45AM

I would like to think more than a handful of cases exist in private collections. I know the number one goal I have in this hobby is not to own a Mantle rookie or any one highly coveted card, but to have the most epic rip and bust open an entire box from a fresh case. I would happily sell my entire collection in a heartbeat to make that happen or 25 years from now buy a couple of boxes. I figure if they don't start surfacing in 20-30 years from these supposed collections, unfortunately, they may never surface.

RookieWax · March 2, 2014 2:52AM

<< I'm so glad Steve chimed in on this (seeing that I'm not supposed to post.)

With regards to how many Jordans were printed, in the late-90s a high-level Fleer executive told me in there were 250,000 of each card printed for 1986/87 Fleer Basketball. Is this a realistic number? I suppose so, considering it was their first basketball product. He also said because of the product's disappointing reception on the market, they cut production in half for 1987/88. Now, do I believe this person? I'm sure I wasn't the first, and won't be the last, to ask him this question. I have no reason to believe why anyone who was familiar with production numbers would even care to remember these figures. By the time anyone was curious about print run for this product, a few years had gone by, and anyone at Fleer by that time was more concerned about baseball. Like just about any issue produced up until the 2000s, I doubt anyone knows the true print run of any issue, because nobody really cared to document the information or bother to remember it. Having met and dealt with a few dozen manufacturer employees, from line workers up to the executives and board members, almost none of them were actually card collectors who get geeked up on information that we seek. It was just a job to them.

This means +/-6,400 cases were produced of 1986/87 Fleer Basketball. I won't begin to guess how many cases were broken down for box/pack sales in that first year, nor will I even hazard a guess how many were returned, but I'm with Steve - I've heard it all and just want some proof. The $1,000 is sort of the bait for someone to prove me wrong - make me eat my words if you will. (I'm sure a few would take great pleasure it this.)

Flatfoot816 (Manny?) example about where all the Jordans are, possibly still unopened, to me isn't a fair explanation of where all the Jordans are. If there were 100 cases still in the hobby, and if there were 1,000 boxes unopened still in the hobby - both of which are absolutely absurd figures - that would account for only +/-7,000 Jordans still unopened. There's probably at least 8-10 times that amount of Jordan rookies lying dormant in collections of individuals that don't collect. There's also a similar amount of Jordan rookies that are part of an active collector's stash that aren't graded because they don't want to. I feel just because a small percentage of the print run is graded doesn't mean it's still out there in unopened form.

A good example of this is 1993 Topps Finest Baseball. Topps stated a print run of 4,000 cases. Doing the math, it can be determined there are 241 refractors of each player (not taking into account short prints, backdoored cards, etc.) A quick glance shows there are roughly 100 of each refractor in PSA holders (have to adjust some numbers a bit for cracking and resubmitting.) Where are the rest of the refractors? Some lie in collections unknowingly, since back in 1993 many people couldn't figure out what a refractor looked like (and to this day some still can't.) The overwhelming majority lie in dormant collections of individuals who don't collect - the mass exodus of collectors who left in the mid/late-90s. I find 1993 Finest Refractors all the time in the collections I buy. Where are the rest? There are probably a few thousand boxes out there, but cases are a different story. I won't pay $1,000 just to see one, but considering how desirable this product was from day one, and therefore easy to hoard, there aren't many left to account for the "where are the rest?" quantity.

With regards to the private collectors who have these cases, how and whem did they acquire them? If they did so in 1986, citing investment purposes, well we know that's BS. Those are the same people who claim they bought Microsoft on day one, haven't sold any shares yet, and can't put together enough cash to change the muffler on their car. So let's say they decided to do so in the early/mid-90s, when the case was worth at least five figures. Who sold it to them? Most likely a dealer. Dealers absolutely love to tell stories about their best deals; they are quite the opposite of private. I haven't even heard of a dealer SELLING a case in the last 20 years.

Bigfoot, indeed. >>

I love when Reed and Steve chime in about unopened. What they posted makes complete sense. It is similar to what I posted a while back in one of the threads about the skyrocketing prices of unopened product. That is people assumed for the past 10 years or so that the amount of remaining 1970s and even many 1980s unopened boxes is plentiful just because it had been readily available for so long. The fact is that many of those boxes and cases that seemed "readily available" were the same cases listed over and over for years at a time and going unsold. Then, in the past 2 years or so, many former collectors from the boom of the late 1980s and early 1990s started to come back to the hobby and buy up and rip packs they either couldn't afford in their younger years or just wanted to relive opening. So, once those boxes and cases - which sat for year after year- were bought up, we found out there weren't a whole lot of others out there....as very few new listings of unopened were showing up. This includes many boxes of certain product that were assumed to be plentiful "junk" - I am talking about some of the more unusual 1970s and 1980s boxes such as Fleer Star stickers, Topps Stickers, Fleer Team Action Football, Fleer basketball stickers and football patches, Topps UK minis, etc.

mknez · March 2, 2014 2:56AM

Great discussion!

hyperchipper09 · March 2, 2014 2:56AM

Bit of a ghoulish thought but, if MJ were to die unexpectedly young, would it surprise anyone then to see a few cases appear? Wouldn't me, at all. Iron-Strike-Hot. I'll stick with my more than one would think idea. More than 5-10, certainly. I see a few people saying over 100. I think that may be high however. That # is too big IMO. If a few higher rollers are setting on these(possibly not even your standard hobby guys), $1000 to view a case is not going to matter to those individuals. I'm not saying they would laugh at $1000, but, if you have a case of these, sitting, and could sell anytime you wanted, or even offer views yourself at whatever charge, one G ain't tipping that boat. Just my .02.

NickM · March 2, 2014 3:12AM

I think there are a lot of unopened boxes of '86 Fleer sitting in collections but not that many unopened cases. One celebrity collector had, as of a little over a decade ago, at least 10 unopened boxes plus dozens of Jordan rookies - he had a serious mancrush on Jordan. My source for this was a woman he was dating who I was doing some trademark work for. Now for all I know, he opened the boxes, rolled up the Jordans, and used them to snort coke, but he has the sort of money that getting a million dollars is almost meaningless to him, so I can't see him selling them.

Nick

dmurphy3mvp · March 2, 2014 4:41AM

<< Glad Steve shared his valuable perspective on his experiences. Another area that likely warrants consideration is how many we're produced. Assess these facts:

1) PSA + BGS have graded a combined 21,000 Jordan RC's
2) Next highest card submitted from set is Barkley/Malone at 6,000 each
3) If a Jordan is raw, it is largely considered fake in today's market; therefore 90% or more will have been submitted
4) The submission spread on Jordan vs. Malone is over 3 to 1 and a large function of crack and resubmit hoping for higher grades on Jordan
5) This means best scenario there are 20,000 Jordan rookies in existence (I believe closer to 15,000 actually)
6) At 3.27 sets per box, Fleer would have sold 6,000 boxes which is 500 cases total
7) No auction houses have ever had a case despite unearthing some of the worlds rarest items
8) In no scenario can there be 100+ cases remaining

I am exactly where Steve is. 1 or 2 cases may be hiding out there, but odds are zero. This would likely put the legit box count at less than 50 given many from the Mark Murphy days were broken for packs. Great discussion so far. This is what makes the hobby fun! >>

I agree with the poster that a sealed case probably doesn't exist, but I am positive "fact" #3 is grossly exaggerated. "If a Jordan is raw, it is largely considered fake in today's market" might hold true on eBay or Craigslist listings, but not true when considered the entire population of surviving cards. I stared buying and selling cards in high school. I had access to an endless stream of new inventory as I proceeded to buy collections from my classmates, who could use the money for cars and girls. I even bought a couple collections of my teachers! However, I wasn't even close to buying everyone's collections, and over the next 10-15 years, I still couldn't shake them all out, including several Jordans. There are still many Jordan rookies out there that belong in childhood collections of people in Hawaii. Basketball cards are and have always been big out there, and I've bought and sold dozen of Jordan rookies just in that state alone. I can assure you that many of the ones I've sold have not been graded and lie in dormant collections. Not everyone believes in grading; as it's been mentioned on this board, we here are definitely just a fraction of the collecting community.

Fact #4 has to do with the prohibitive costs of grading. The average collector, probably can't reason paying $10 or more (remember, an average collector doesn't submit 100+ cards at a time) for a card that books for $40, which could explain the difference in quantities between Jordan and Malone much better than the crack and resubmit theory. I agree that crack and resubmit has inflated the numbers considerably, but not triple.

Fact #6 doesn't make sense from a manufacturer standpoint. There's absolutely no way, given the overhead of producing a card set (licensing, production costs) would Fleer do a 500 case run of anything. If they sold out (and they didn't) at $10/box, the revenue generated would have been $60,000 from the entire print run. David Stern probably charged Fleer more than that just for the license.

1986/87 Fleer Basketball Box...How many are left?

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