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The stock market is down about 200, and CLCT is up above 21 for the first time
edmundfitzgerald
Posts: 4,306 ✭✭
Up .73 cents today on a tough day for the market.
Thank you for all your submissions
Thank you for all your submissions
0
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which is what resubs are for.
Looking to BUY n332 1889 SF Hess cards and high grade cards from 19th century especially. "Once you have wrestled everything else in life is easy" Dan Gable
On a fundamental side, the company is set to report March earnings in the next 2 weeks. March is their historic strongest quarter and this year appears to be on par with last year based on the number of coins and cards graded. The shorts are betting the company will cut it's dividend at some point. They probably earned 29c last quarter and added to cash about $1.5M. Shorts are hoping for cash to dwindle. China sales appear strong, maybe 10% of volume now. By all accounts, things have never been better. You guys report long wait times. The company will also announce its next 32.5c dividend any day now.
In short, times are good, next dividend on or about May 14, 655K shorts need to cover, and 700K shares will be bought regardless of price for index tracking. By any metric (PE, P/S, etc) the stock is pricey here but these short term issues outweigh these metrics. This could hit $30 by June. If it does, I will sell.
By the way, this current downturn is being caused by the Curse of the Irrationally Exuberant Collector's Universe Thread!
Hope my slow poppages mean good things for the stock... makes the waiting more bearable
Bosox1976
<< <i>Sorry I just moved the market by breaking off 160 shares. Got my eye on something on Ebay for everyone's rip viewing pleasure.
By the way, this current downturn is being caused by the Curse of the Irrationally Exuberant Collector's Universe Thread! >>
I hope you held long enough to avoid the short-term capital gains tax.
<< <i>I hope you held long enough to avoid the short-term capital gains tax. >>
Bought my shares the same day I sent my first sub in back in 2011. Been reinvesting the dividend and...
wait, I always seem to regret when I get too proud about a stock.
earnings tomorrow. Look for comparable to last year; 29c GAAP EPS, $14.5M rev. The key number is how much cash is added? Last year was $1.3M. More than that and it puts a big hurt on the 665K shorts as the premise of the company cutting the dividend will not hold. This current quarter has started out much stronger than last year as well.
The Russell index rebalance will be set on the closing prices of stocks as of May 30. Last year CLCT was removed and 700K+ shares were sold. With the price of CLCT almost double from last year, it looks almost certain that CLCT will be added to the indexes. As long as the price of the stock stays over $20/sh, it's going in. Shares will need to be bought regardless of price by end of June.
Stock goes ex-dividend on the 14th, 32.5c
Makes for an interesting 7+ weeks between now and end of June.
<< <i>Here's my recap I posted on yahoo yesterday. Stock was up 7%+ closing at $23.52:
earnings tomorrow. Look for comparable to last year; 29c GAAP EPS, $14.5M rev. The key number is how much cash is added? Last year was $1.3M. More than that and it puts a big hurt on the 665K shorts as the premise of the company cutting the dividend will not hold. This current quarter has started out much stronger than last year as well.
The Russell index rebalance will be set on the closing prices of stocks as of May 30. Last year CLCT was removed and 700K+ shares were sold. With the price of CLCT almost double from last year, it looks almost certain that CLCT will be added to the indexes. As long as the price of the stock stays over $20/sh, it's going in. Shares will need to be bought regardless of price by end of June.
Stock goes ex-dividend on the 14th, 32.5c
Makes for an interesting 7+ weeks between now and end of June. >>
One thing that is not directly related to CLCT but is certainly helping is that interest rates have been falling. Any of these high payers get a nice boost from that as the spread widens.
$16.3M rev, 26c GAAP, $1.4M cash generated. I like the big revenue growth (12.5% y-y) and cash generated. Not sure why GAAP was not higher based on such high revenue but tax rate was 42.5% which seems a little higher than normal
Revenue much higher than I thought but tax rate was also much higher pushing EPS down. $1.4M cash added was almost exactly on target
<< <i>Could you explain to me why there is a 42.5% tax rate for CLCT ? >>
35% Federal and 7%+ in California. So all that stuff you hear about US companies paying so much less than the top tax bracket, we'll here is a perfect example of a lower top tax rate would help a company.
Which is why i will no longer work in Portland,OR VS where i live in Vancouver,WA. Working in Oregon you will now see 51% of your paycheck go goodbye to taxes.
<< <i>
<< <i>Could you explain to me why there is a 42.5% tax rate for CLCT ? >>
35% Federal and 7%+ in California. So all that stuff you hear about US companies paying so much less than the top tax bracket, we'll here is a perfect example of a lower top tax rate would help a company. >>
I am not going to get into whether it is good or bad but this is exactly why so many jobs have moved to Texas. No state tax.
I sold a while ago out of, as it turns out completely unfounded, concern about how sustainable that big old dividend was.
Congrats to those who held.... 52 week low at $12.10, sitting just off the high at $23.08 at close today... although it did trade down in AH, following earnings, on light volume.
Snorto~
15 shares to be precise. If $300 worth of stock is enough to sway you, I will buy 3 shares at $100 in the pre-market today
I have to think their market share has increased even further.
Report
The number of cards they are processing has been only slightly increasing over the past year but the revenue has been steadily increasing. They are slowly raising prices and doing away with the low cost specials
<< <i>They claimed 90% market share at PSA before.
The number of cards they are processing has been only slightly increasing over the past year but the revenue has been steadily increasing. They are slowly raising prices and doing away with the low cost specials >>
I am glad to see they have been on record saying this. I used to quote 85% and many questioned it. It appears they have taken even greater share since I was told that number.
This stock is nuts. They took it down from $23 to $21.88 on 8,000 shares traded.
Bouncing back some now.
The full presentation is here: CLCT Needham Conf
Here is the slide if all you want to see is that one slide:
<< <i>Reminder for next time - whenever a thread like this pops up, it is time to start SHORTING. >>
Please do. I would love to take your money too.
<< <i>Please do. I would love to take your money too. >>
I am not saying short long-term but threads about how well CLCT is doing are the ultimate contrarian indicators. Threads where people say they are jumping in and buying are also great contrarian indicators.
The 23.67 quoted above would have been a great time to short and no you wouldn't have been taking my money.
Listen DB, Your threads on Yahoo are insightful but when you start crowing a bit too much and talk about selling at 25 or 30, it is also time to go short.
<< <i>
<< <i>Please do. I would love to take your money too. >>
I am not saying short long-term but threads about how well CLCT is doing are the ultimate contrarian indicators. Threads where people say they are jumping in and buying are also great contrarian indicators.
The 23.67 quoted above would have been a great time to short and no you wouldn't have been taking my money.
Listen DB, Your threads on Yahoo are insightful but when you start crowing a bit too much and talk about selling at 25 or 30, it is also time to go short. >>
You nailed it. When something gets euphoric it is a massive warning sign. It doesn't matter what it is.
I have no position in this stock and like seeing it trade higher but there is no doubt there are periods where stocks get extended and a pullback is imminent.
Looks like a strong report. Good luck to CLCT shareholders today.
The stock is at $23 and has been moving forward in the midst of volatile trading on Wall St.
<< <i>in the midst of volatile trading on Wall St. >>
That's an understatement.
<< <i>
<< <i>in the midst of volatile trading on Wall St. >>
That's an understatement. >>
Small caps have been getting smoked and CLCT is up. Showing huge relative strength.
<< <i>
<< <i>in the midst of volatile trading on Wall St. >>
That's an understatement. >>
Usually a good sign for big bank earnings... I'm sure their trading units were very profitable this quarter. I do wish CLCT would pull back some so I can add to my position, although the yield is still very nice at current levels.
dbtunr • Sep 21, 2014 9:58 AM Remove 6users liked this postsusers disliked this posts1Reply
preliminary Q1 2015 #'s: GAAP 22c, rev $14.8M+, $200K+ cash added
using the 21st of Sept #'s as the cutoff (due to processing delay), I get 504K coins and 420K cards for this current qtr. Cards have been working 7 days/week recently to meet their numbers and move down their excessively long backlog.
That translates to over $13.9M in revenue, add in a little extra for non-card or coin revenue (Expo's, CCE network, digital properties, etc) and I get over $14.8M on revenue.
figure 22c in GAAP earnings and $200K+ in cash added. Q1 warranty costs are down but they typically have capital expenses in this quarter. Hard to predict Tax rate is it varies wildly. Hopefully China losses will narrow. HOF coins and the Kennedy coins were wildly popular and will add to avg ticket price. The card division has its annual big show during this quarter. Card division also did not run its low cost promos this quarter which will add to card avg ticket price.
Last year $14.1M, 20c GAAP, 447K coins and 431K cards, cash BURN of $1.2M. China started up last year in July and that was a big reason for the burn as well as cap ex. Even if cash flow this quarter is break even, that is a huge turn from last years big burn.
I think my estimates have been consistently under estimating their performance.
Cash add would have been higher but they bought back about $300K in stock options in the quarter
CLCT is one of them.
<< <i>Just heard a stat that only 17% of small cap stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average.
CLCT is one of them. >>
The Russell 2000 Index just experienced a Death Cross; the 50 Day Moving Avg fell below the 200 DMA. As a comparison, CLCT just had a Golden Cross; the 50 DMA moved above the 200 DMA. CLCT is in the R2K index and thus gets negatively effected when Hedge funds sell the index on technicals. That it is going the opposite of its index shows its underlying strength.
Some interesting reading.
They had to pay a hefty fee to come public and it is great to see that PSA only authenticates items and doesn't make a market in them any longer.
The link also states that a PSA 8 1952 Mantle sold for $31,050. What a buy relative to stocks in 1999.
Today that investment would equate to 275 shares owned at a closing price as of yesterday of $22.86 for a total of $6286.50.
Plus you would have earned right at $2125 in dividends (my example does not include reinvesting the dividends in new share purchases).
The shares split 1:4 on 12/9/02 and 11:10 on 10/16/08.
If we could jump in our time machine and purchase those 1000 shares on 12/30/2008 at the closing price of $2.42 for a total of $2420 they would be worth today
$22,860 plus around $6,000 in not reinvested dividends. Or put another way a 25k investment in CLCT on 12/30/08 would be worth well over a quarter of a mil today.
<< <i>Thanks for IPO info. A 1000 share purchase at the IPO price of $6 would have been a $6000 investment in 1999 dollars.
Today that investment would equate to 275 shares owned at a closing price as of yesterday of $22.86 for a total of $6286.50.
Plus you would have earned right at $2125 in dividends (my example does not include reinvesting the dividends in new share purchases).
The shares split 1:4 on 12/9/02 and 11:10 on 10/16/08.
If we could jump in our time machine and purchase those 1000 shares on 12/30/2008 at the closing price of $2.42 for a total of $2420 they would be worth today
$22,860 plus around $6,000 in not reinvested dividends. Or put another way a 25k investment in CLCT on 12/30/08 would be worth well over a quarter of a mil today. >>
Great info!
I went to look at the chart on Yahoo and saw it started at a much higher price and that explains the reverse split.
<< <i>
<< <i>Thanks for IPO info. A 1000 share purchase at the IPO price of $6 would have been a $6000 investment in 1999 dollars.
Today that investment would equate to 275 shares owned at a closing price as of yesterday of $22.86 for a total of $6286.50.
Plus you would have earned right at $2125 in dividends (my example does not include reinvesting the dividends in new share purchases).
The shares split 1:4 on 12/9/02 and 11:10 on 10/16/08.
If we could jump in our time machine and purchase those 1000 shares on 12/30/2008 at the closing price of $2.42 for a total of $2420 they would be worth today
$22,860 plus around $6,000 in not reinvested dividends. Or put another way a 25k investment in CLCT on 12/30/08 would be worth well over a quarter of a mil today. >>
Great info!
I went to look at the chart on Yahoo and saw it started at a much higher price and that explains the reverse split. >>
Yep. It was a great ride. Some of the buyers back then at those very low prices are selling now. David Hall (Founder) actually bought 100K shares at $2 when the then CEO got a margin call and had to sell. Richard Duncan bought almost 20% of the company at those prices and has also been selling. Can't blame then. 10X is a great investment. The start to this quarter is below what it was last year at this time. I think the stock is getting high here and I have sold off a portion.
I bought some last week based on my e-mail from Zacks.....
Collectors Universe share prices have moved between a 52-week high of $23.75 and a 52-week low of $14.25 and are now trading 64% above that low price at $23.44 per share. Over the last five market days, the 200-day moving average (MA) has gone up 0.7% while the 50-day MA has advanced 1.4%. Target is $26 a share.
<< <i>So experts. Is it a good buy today at $22.75? >>
I just said The start to this quarter is below what it was last year at this time. I think the stock is getting high here and I have sold off a portion.
Having said that, the stock typically rises right into the ex-dividend date which should be Nov 12 (will announce next week). Last qtr was great but outlook might be not so good for this quarter. Above $24 before ex-div date and I sell the rest of my holdings until January.
<< <i>CLCT just declared $.325 per share dividend. >>
ex-date is Nov 14