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Topps Redemption and Replacement Rant - My First Long Post in Years
mudflap02
Posts: 2,060 ✭✭
I've got some time to kill after working a late night, so it's about time to get this out of the way. I actually did a pretty long write up on the Beckett Bords on the same topic, but it was eaten by their infamous gremlins as soon as I posted it. I learned my lesson, so I'm just going to start this post, and update it a little bit at a time. Those checking the boards on Saturday morning should see the whole thing. I'm also going to copy and paste the whole thing once it's done, and repost on the Beckett Boards for all to see. I realize that there aren't many modern collectors on these boards, so if you don't know much about that side of the hobby, this should be a nice little post on the state of the hobby today. I'm going to be back and forth between putting some new scans up on my site and updating this, but if nothing else, it should be an interesting read. I think the point of this is that I'm mainly just looking for some commiseration and some "Dude, that sucks!" replies, but in a perfect world, this would actually help get the ball rolling to end one of the worst things about modern cards - the redemption.
Keep in mind while reading this, I'm a nerd. I collect baseball cards and write about them on the internet, so a lot of this might sound like a "Pierre Bernard's Recliner of Rage" type post, but odds are if you're here reading this, you're a nerd too, so hopefully there will be at least some sort of understanding between us.
While I'm updating this post, here's a chance to show off the set I've been working on the most lately - the Topps '52 Rookies autograph set. The look of the cards (combined with the on-card auto, as opposed to a "sticker") really appealed to me. It's like a poor man's 2001 Topps Heritage autograph set. Unlike the Topps Heritage sets, which have a set number of autographs produced (200 each for the Blue Ink version, and a rarer Red Ink version serial numbered XX/52, XX/53 and so on, depending on the year the set is styled after), the Topps '52 Rookie autographs are "Grouped" according to scarcity. There is still a Red Ink version which is numbered XX/52, but the Blue Ink versions are produced in various quantities, and as a result, the better players have fewer autograph cards produced, and the odds are better of pulling a "Common" autograph than a stud rookie who everyone wants.
Here's a link to my sets. The first set was released in 2006, and the 2007 design will probably be the last year of the set. The cards share an identical design (obviously based on the 2001 Topps Herita......errrr I mean 1952 Topps set), but you can get a general feel for what we're dealing with here. The scans are organized alphabetically by year and card number (if that makes sense, since the cards are numbered 52S-XX each year.) So the first scans you see are the 2006 set, and the 2007 set kicks off with the Dual Autographs followed by Alberto Arias (52S-AA.)
Topps '52 Rookie Edition Autographs
Also, if anyone happens to have a pack or wrapper from the 2006 set and could PM me the Group Odds on the back, I would greatly appreciate it.
Keep in mind while reading this, I'm a nerd. I collect baseball cards and write about them on the internet, so a lot of this might sound like a "Pierre Bernard's Recliner of Rage" type post, but odds are if you're here reading this, you're a nerd too, so hopefully there will be at least some sort of understanding between us.
While I'm updating this post, here's a chance to show off the set I've been working on the most lately - the Topps '52 Rookies autograph set. The look of the cards (combined with the on-card auto, as opposed to a "sticker") really appealed to me. It's like a poor man's 2001 Topps Heritage autograph set. Unlike the Topps Heritage sets, which have a set number of autographs produced (200 each for the Blue Ink version, and a rarer Red Ink version serial numbered XX/52, XX/53 and so on, depending on the year the set is styled after), the Topps '52 Rookie autographs are "Grouped" according to scarcity. There is still a Red Ink version which is numbered XX/52, but the Blue Ink versions are produced in various quantities, and as a result, the better players have fewer autograph cards produced, and the odds are better of pulling a "Common" autograph than a stud rookie who everyone wants.
Here's a link to my sets. The first set was released in 2006, and the 2007 design will probably be the last year of the set. The cards share an identical design (obviously based on the 2001 Topps Herita......errrr I mean 1952 Topps set), but you can get a general feel for what we're dealing with here. The scans are organized alphabetically by year and card number (if that makes sense, since the cards are numbered 52S-XX each year.) So the first scans you see are the 2006 set, and the 2007 set kicks off with the Dual Autographs followed by Alberto Arias (52S-AA.)
Topps '52 Rookie Edition Autographs
Also, if anyone happens to have a pack or wrapper from the 2006 set and could PM me the Group Odds on the back, I would greatly appreciate it.
0
Comments
I'm not sure what the rant is but I assume it has to do with all the redemption cards in your gallery rather than having the actual autos. If you're having problems getting them redeemed I surely commiserate with you.
My situation was different but I opened a 2003 Heritage box in 2006 after I got hooked on the whole run of sets. I pulled a Hank Aaron auto redemption, would have been a great card. I knew it was expired but sent in to Topps with a request that they give me anything to make up for the damn redemption card. I got ye olde form letter telling me that Topps basically just doesn't give a crap.
Dave
Now collecting:
Topps Heritage
1957 Topps BB Ex+-NM
All Yaz Items 7+
Various Red Sox
Did I leave anything out?
Edited to Say that these odds came off of a Blaster box.
Don't even get me started on the Kevin Frandsen Redemptions!
CDsNuts, 1/9/15
Kevin
(Travis Buck turned into Chris Iannetta)
(Paul LoDuca turned into a 2006 Bowman's Best Lastings Milledge)
<< <i>
(Paul LoDuca turned into a 2006 Bowman's Best Lastings Milledge) >>
Bowman Sterling.
But yes, that does suck horribly. I think I remember your post on beckett. Maybe it was in a mail call thread or something?
I'm assuming you've pulled all those redemption cards after expiration?
I'm not a fan of them - and since Topps alloted the entire run to be pulled in that year - there should NOT be an expiration on redemptions!
Come on Topps - be a man and do the right thing!
mike
I hope this just cements the point that Mudflap is getting too.
The three very boring autos Topps sent me.
CDsNuts, 1/9/15
the 06 '52' redemption cards are good untill 12/31/08
CDsNuts, 1/9/15
<< <i>Mike,
the 06 '52' redemption cards are good untill 12/31/08 >>
Wow - OK - then what's the rant? Have I missed something?
Sorry - but I still don't like redemptions - especially when they pull the switch on ya - have had that happen.
mike
More to follow....
Received this morning:
WAY TO GO, TOPPS!!!!
I will still be sending a letter regarding the other replacements, but it will be worded a little differently!
Way to go Mudflap!
Bosox1976
In front of me, I have some wrappers from 2006 and 2007 Topps '52 rookies. Here are the stated autograph odds from the packs.
2007 (Hobby odds)
Group A: 1:4,750
Group B: 1:150
Group C: 1:3,149
Group
Group E: 1:54
Group F: 1:9
'52 Signature Combo /25: 1:1,094
Red Ink Autograph /52: 1:88
2007 (Retail Odds)
Group A: 1:13,401
Group B: 1:429
Group C: 1:9.065
Group
Group E: 1:162
Group F: 1:29
'52 Signature Combo: N/A (Only available in hobby packs)
Red Ink Autograph /52: N/A (Only available in hobby packs)
From these numbers, you can tell a couple of things. The autographs are about 3x as tough to pull from retail, and given that there is a fixed quantity of red and dual autographs, you can figure out the approximate print run of each unnumbered blue auto by extrapolating the number of packs produced.
First off, let's try to figure out the approximate number of hobby packs produced. We can get an estimate of this by using the odds from the red autos and the combos. There are 9 autographs in the combo set. So 9 (the number of cards in the set, or "n") x 25 (the print run, or "pr") x 1,094 (the number of packs you would have to open to get one of these cards, or "odds") = 246,150. There are 61 autographs in the Red Ink /52 set (The Group A autographs do NOT have a red parallel.) So, 61 (n) x 52 (pr) x 88 (odds) = 279,136. This gives us quite a different number for the amount of hobby packs produced, but it's close enough to get an estimate. An average of the two numbers will work, so we'll use 262,643 as our number for the amount of hobby packs produced (or "#hp"). From this, we can figure out the print run of the blue autographs in hobby packs (assuming that each card in each group has the same print run), and since we know how much different the odds are in retail, we can assume that the hobby print run is 75% of the print run for each card.
So using these odds, here are the APPROXIMATE print runs for each group (and card).
Group A:
5 cards in this group - Francisco Cordero, Gary Sheffield, Jorge Posada, Jimmy Rollins, and Paul LoDuca
Odds: 1:4750.
262,643 / 4,750 = 55.29 TOTAL Group A autos in hobby packs.
55.29 / 5 = 11 autos of each player in hobby packs.
Assuming that 3/4 of the autos are in hobby packs, 11 = 3/4 of the total number of autos, so there are 15 of each Group A Auto total.
Group B:
This is where it starts to get shady. ALL of the big name rookies in this set are in Group B, along with a few scrubs thrown in for good measure. At the stated hobby odds of 1:150, you would need to open 7 1/2 boxes of 20 packs each to pull one of these cards. For set builders like myself, it means that about half the autograph set is ridiculously short printed.
32 cards in this group - Alex Gordon, Akinori Iwamura, Andy LaRoche, Andrew Miller, Brian Stokes, Cameron Maybin, Chris Stewart, Chase Wright, Fred Lewis, Felix Pie, Hideki Okajima, Hunter Pence, Joaquin Arias, Jared Burton, Jon Coutlangus, Joba Chamberlain, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Justin Upton, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Kurt Suzuki, Michael Bourn, Matt Lindstrom, Nick Gorneault, Phil Hughes, Ryan Braun, Ryan Z. Braun, Travis Buck, Tyler Clippard, Tim Lincecum, Travis Metcalf, and Yovanni Gallardo
262,643 / 150 = 1,751 TOTAL Group B autos in hobby packs
1,751 / 32 = 55 autos of each player in hobby packs, and 73 Blue autos TOTAL of each player. This means that the unnumbered blue autos of each Group B player are almost as tough to pull as the "Special Edition" red ink version that is numbered /52.
Group C:
This one's easy. There's only one player in Group C, Rocky Cherry.
262,643 / 3,149 = 83 Rocky Cherry autos in hobby packs. 111 Rocky Cherry autos total.
Group
Almost as easy. Two players in Group D, Joel Hanrahan and Jason Miller.
262,643 / 1,049 = 250 Group D Autos in hobby packs.
125 of each player, 167 Total. It seems like there are more Jason Miller autos than Joel Hanrahan, but I could be wrong. I believe Miller was originally in Group E.
Group E:
10 Cards in this group. Angel Sanchez, Brian Buscher, Billy Petrick, Brian Wolfe, Chase Headley, Mike Zagurski, Mark McLemore, Phil Dumatrait, Ryan Budde, and Zack Segovia.
262,643 / 54 = 4864 Group E Autos in hobby packs.
486 of each player, for a total print run of 649 per player.
Group F:
16 Cards in this group. Alberto Arias, Alexi Casilla, Aaron Laffey, Brian Barden, Brett Carroll, Brian Esposito, Ben Francisco, Cory Doyne, Darren Clarke, Edwar Ramirez, Jensen Lewis, Joseph Bisenius, Levale Speigner, Matthew Brown, Nathan Haynes, and Troy Cate.
262,643 / 9 = 29,183 Group F Autos in hobby packs.
1,823 per player, for a total print run of 2,431 per player.
So at long last, here are the odds along with the print runs of each Group.
Group A - 1:4750, Print run of 15 per player
Group B - 1:150, Print run of 73 per player
Group C - 1:3,149, Print run of 111 per player
Group D - 1:1049, Print run of 125 per player
Group E - 1:54, Print run of 649 per player
Group F - 1:9, Print run of 2,431 per player
I didn't take the odds on the blaster boxes into account, but I'm under the assumption that they fall under the retail odds. If not, I figure you can add about 10% to each print run.
Here's the same breakdown for the 2006 set. I don't have a retail pack in front of me, but from the blaster odds that were (so kindly) posted by DavidPuddy earlier in the thread, I'm just going to use those.
2006 (Hobby odds)
Group A: 1:11,000
Group B: 1:2,580
Group C: 1:130
Group
Group E: 1:111
Group F: 1:104
Group G: 1:32
Group H: 1:85
Group I: 1:30
Group J: 1:20
Red Ink Edition /52: 1:235
2006 (Retail Odds)
Group A: 1:52,000
Group B: 1:9,500
Group C: 1:410
Group
Group E: 1:372
Group F: 1:358
Group G: 1:115
Group H: 1:115
Group I: 1:111
Group J: 1:76
Red Ink Edition /52: 1:840
Just from eyeballing those numbers, it looks like I can just use the same assumption that 75% of the autos were in hobby packs. That might be a little off, but I guess it will work for these purposes. I don't have the luxury of hobby-only autographs like I did for 2007 to calculate the total number of hobby packs. I'll just figure out the total number of Red Ink Autos /52 that were inserted into hobby packs, and assume that 75% of that number is my "magic number" for hobby packs. Again, Red Ink autos don't exist for the veterans in this product (in the case of 2006, that means Groups A and B.)
There are 51 rookie autos in this set with a Red Ink parallel. So 51 (the number of different players) x 52 (the print run) = 2,652 red ink autographs.
2,652 x 235 (the number of hobby packs you would need to open to get a Red Ink auto) = 623,220. Less 25% to account for the retail Red Inks = 467,415. Even if this number is off (and therefore, I'm also off on the print runs for each group,) it will still give us a similar ratio of the short-printed autos to the more common ones.
Group A-
3 cards in this group, and they are TOUGH! Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Johnny Damon
Odds - 1:11,000
467,415 / 11,000 = 42 Group A autos TOTAL in hobby packs
14 of each player in hobby, total print run of 19.
Group B-
5 cards in this group, but I have never seen one of the (Manny) - Chipper Jones, David Ortiz, David Wright, Dontrelle Willis, and Manny Ramirez
Odds: 1:2,580
467,415 / 2,580 = 181 Group B autos TOTAL in hobby packs
36 of each player in hobby, total print run of 48. There seem to be more of David Ortiz than the others.
Group C-
This is the group with the better rookies. 11 cards total - Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, Joe Saunders, Stephen Drew, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Cain, Justin Verlander, Melky Cabrera, Joel Zumaya, Jered Weaver, and Howie Kendrick
Odds: 1:130
467,415 / 130 = 3,596 Group C Autos TOTAL in hobby packs
329 of each player in hobby, total print run of 436.
Group D-
The lone wolf from 2006, Brian Anderson is the only player in Group D.
Odds: 1:912
467,415 / 912 = 513 Brian Anderson autos in Hobby, 683 total.
Group E-
6 players - Angel Guzman, Bill Bray, Brian Bannister, Yusmeiro Petit, Chris Iannetta, Dan Uggla
Odds: 1:111
467,415 / 111 = 4,211 Group E Autos TOTAL in hobby packs
702 of each player in hobby, 936 total.
Group F-
4 players - Joel Guzman, Chuck James, Jeff Mathis, Angel Pagan
Odds: 1:104
467,415 / 104 = 4494 Group F Autos total in hobby packs
1124 of each player in hobby, 1498 total.
Group G-
10 players in this group, and some surprisingly good cards - Buck Coats, Jeff Karstens, Matt Kemp, Mike Napoli, Fabio Castro, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jonathan Papelbon, Reggie Abercrombie, Ryan O'Malley, and Kendry Morales.
Odds: 1:32
467,415 / 32 = 14,607 Group G Autos total in hobby packs.
1,461 of each player in hobby, 1948 total.
Group H-
Only 3 players in this group - Anibal Sanchez, Franklin Gutierrez, and Anthony Lerew
Odds: 1:85
467,415 / 85 = 5,499 Group H Autos total in hobby packs.
1,833 of each player in hobby, 2444 total.
Group I-
7 players in this group - Brian Slocum, Chris Mabeus, John Van Benschoten, Matt Albers, Josh Sharpless, Scott Mathieson, and T.J. Bohn
Odds: 1:30
467,415 / 30 = 15,581 Group I Autos total in hobby packs.
2,226 of each player in hobby, 2,968 total.
Group J-
9 players in this group, and it is not pleasant - Ben Zobrist, Edward Mujica, Emiliano Fruto, Enrique Gonzalez, Erick Aybar, Josh Kinney, Kevin Frandsen, Yurendell De Caster, and Tom Mastny.
Odds: 1:20
467,415 / 20 = 23,371 Group J Autos total in hobby packs.
2,597 of each player in hobby, 3,462 total.
So here's the breakdown of the 2006 set. If these numbers are off, it isn't by much. Can you imagine these poor guys that signed over 3,000 cards? That print run is just insane - a monster box of cards that needed to be signed individually! No wonder those guys didn't do much in the bigs. Their hands must have been completely cramped up if they had any free time to play baseball.
Group A: 1:11,000, Print run of 19 per player.
Group B: 1:2,580, Print run of 48 per player.
Group C: 1:130, print run of 436 per player.
Group
Group E: 1:111, print run of 936 per player.
Group F: 1:104, print run of 1,498 per player.
Group G: 1:32, print run of 1,948 per player.
Group H: 1:85, print run of 2,444 per player.
Group I: 1:30, print run of 2,968 per player.
Group J: 1:20, print run of 3,462 per player.
2007 Brian Stokes auto (Group B, print run of 73) replaced with 2006 Brian Bannister auto (Group E, print run of 936.)
Unacceptable. Will be returned.
2007 Kevin Kouzmanoff Red Auto (Group B player, print run of 52) replaced with 2007 Brett Carroll Red Auto (Group F player, print run of 52.)
The print run is the same, but a Group B player who is an everyday major leaguer is not exactly the same as a Group F player who has struggled in a couple of MLB at bats. However, I like Carroll, and I think he has some potential, so for some reason I'm hoarding his red autos from this set. Topps dodged a bullet here.
Marginally acceptable. I will grudgingly keep this card.
2007 Combo Auto Akinori Iwamura / Andy LaRoche /25 replaced by a 2006 Bowman Sterling Refractor Trevor Crowe /199.
The card that inspired me to finish this thread. An on-card dual auto /25 of two major league stars, replaced by a no-name rookie /199 with a sticker autograph from a completely different set. However, this card arrived the day after the Crowe:
Topps sent me the card they had already replaced. I was thrilled to get it. The Crowe will be heading back to Topps. I know they probably don't care what happens once they ship a replacement out, but I feel that since they lived up to their end of the redemption card, I have no business keeping the extra auto.
Acceptable! Thanks Topps!
2007 Akinori Iwamura auto (Group B, print run of 73) replaced with a 2006 Matt Garza Auto (Group C, print run of 436)
Unacceptable. Will be returned.
2007 Travis Buck auto (Group B, print run of 73) replaced with a 2006 Chris Iannetta auto (Group E, print run of 936.)
Unacceptable. Will be returned.
2007 Tyler Clippard auto (Group B, print run of 73) replaced with a 2007 Topps Finest Troy Tulowitzki auto.
Unacceptable. A sticker auto from a completely different set. Not a bad player, but I have no use for it.
2007 Andrew Miller Red auto (Group B, print run of 52) replaced with a 2007 Chase Wright red auto (Group B, print run of 52.)
Acceptable. Chase Wright is not exactly the type of pitcher that Andrew Miller has been, but it's a red auto, and one of the scarce Group B players.
Last, and most certainly least:
2007 Paul LoDuca auto (Group A, print run of 15) replaced with a 2006 Bowman Sterling Lastings Milledge Base auto.
This one is from the "WTF" department at Topps. Milledge had rookie autographs in the 2004 product, and even though LoDuca isn't a superstar, the fact that his Group A, on-card auto from '52 rookies was replaced with this card is a joke.
What makes it even worse is that last year, I sent in a Jered Weaver '52 auto redemption in, which was promptly replaced with a Darrell Rasner autograph from Topps Series 2. I sent it back to Topps, and asked for a card that at least had a similar book value (the Weaver redemption booked $40, the Rasner booked $8.) Topps agrees that the redemption was bad, and they sent me this in return, which booked $40.
Yup, it's an on-card autograph of Paul LoDuca from 2006 Turkey Red, numbered /50. LoDuca was able to sign this card, but the Milledge was sent out as a replacement only a couple of months after I sent it in. To date, I have only seen ONE LoDuca redemption card from the '52 set hit ebay, and I won it for considerably more that it would have cost to purchase the Milledge.
So if you've read this far, I really appreciate it. I just needed to vent, and I'm glad I finally got it all out. I posted a shorter version on the beckett boards a few months ago, but even before they killed their boards, they only archived posts for a month or so. I'll be sending the cards back to Topps, along with a copy of his thread. Any support is greatly appreciated, and I will update with any news.
As an aside, I still have six redemption cards from the 2007 set that I didn't send in yet, for fear that they would be replaced like most of the garbage I posted above. I have 1 Andrew Miller Blue Ink, 2 Andrew Miller Red Inks, 1 Akinori Iwamura Red Ink, 1 Travis Buck Red Ink, and 1 Tyler Clippard Red Ink. Hopefully Topps will actually contact me before they try to replace them, since there still are a few holes in my set.
fin
Dripping with sarcasm...........
Steve
I'm kind of surprised to see that it has happened to you so many times. How often does this happen with Topps? Are things there so unorganized that they can't find autos to send out when we mail them the redemption cards?
<< <i>Dude, that sucks! >>
-Agreed
September 10, 2008
To whom it may concern –
I am writing this letter in response to the redemptions I received from 2007 Topps ’52 rookies. You will also notice that I am returning most of them along with this letter. I realize that sometimes redemptions aren’t signed but the players, but the results from this particular set are just an embarrassment to your company, and an insult to those of us who collect the set. Phil Hughes was the only redemption card that was honored. I know this, because I redeemed every possible card from the set in order to complete my autograph set. Below is a list of what was redeemed, and what they were replaced with:
Redemptions received:
2007 Topps ’52 Paul LoDuca Group A === 2006 Bowman Sterling Lastings Milledge Auto
2007 Topps ’52 Travis Buck Blue Auto Group B === 2006 Topps ’52 Chris Iannetta Blue Auto
2007 Topps ’52 Brian Stokes Blue Auto Group B === 2006 Topps ’52 Brian Bannister Blue Auto
2007 Topps ’52 Kevin Kouzmanoff Red Auto === 2007 Topps ’52 Brett Carroll Red Auto 38/52
2007 Topps ’52 Tyler Clippard Blue Auto Group B === 2007 Topps Finest Troy Tulowitzki Auto
2007 Topps ’52 Akinori Iwamura Blue Auto Group B === 2006 Topps ’52 Matt Garza Blue Auto
2007 Topps ’52 Andrew Miller Red Auto === 2007 Topps ’52 Chase Wright Red Auto 37/52
2007 Topps ’52 Phil Hughes Blue Auto Group B === Redemption received
2007 Topps ’52 Andy LaRoche/Akinori Iwamura Auto /25 === 2006 Bowman Sterling Trevor Crowe Refractor Auto 115/199
I am also including a breakdown of the set that I posted on a major message board. I’m not trying to be a pain, but I think that the report I gave on the set clearly illustrates why these redemptions are unacceptable. The link to the thread can be found here:
http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=11&threadid=656258&STARTPAGE=1
Here is the relevant information, which I posted:
In front of me, I have some wrappers from 2006 and 2007 Topps '52 rookies. Here are the stated autograph odds from the packs.
2007 (Hobby odds)
Group A: 1:4,750
Group B: 1:150
Group C: 1:3,149
Group
Group E: 1:54
Group F: 1:9
'52 Signature Combo /25: 1:1,094
Red Ink Autograph /52: 1:88
2007 (Retail Odds)
Group A: 1:13,401
Group B: 1:429
Group C: 1:9.065
Group
Group E: 1:162
Group F: 1:29
'52 Signature Combo: N/A (Only available in hobby packs)
Red Ink Autograph /52: N/A (Only available in hobby packs)
From these numbers, you can tell a couple of things. The autographs are about 3x as tough to pull from retail, and given that there is a fixed quantity of red and dual autographs, you can figure out the approximate print run of each unnumbered blue auto by extrapolating the number of packs produced.
First off, let's try to figure out the approximate number of hobby packs produced. We can get an estimate of this by using the odds from the red autos and the combos. There are 9 autographs in the combo set. So 9 (the number of cards in the set, or "n") x 25 (the print run, or "pr") x 1,094 (the number of packs you would have to open to get one of these cards, or "odds") = 246,150. There are 61 autographs in the Red Ink /52 set (The Group A autographs do NOT have a red parallel.) So, 61 (n) x 52 (pr) x 88 (odds) = 279,136. This gives us quite a different number for the amount of hobby packs produced, but it's close enough to get an estimate. An average of the two numbers will work, so we'll use 262,643 as our number for the amount of hobby packs produced (or "#hp"). From this, we can figure out the print run of the blue autographs in hobby packs (assuming that each card in each group has the same print run), and since we know how much different the odds are in retail, we can assume that the hobby print run is 75% of the print run for each card.
So using these odds, here are the APPROXIMATE print runs for each group (and card).
Group A:
5 cards in this group - Francisco Cordero, Gary Sheffield, Jorge Posada, Jimmy Rollins, and Paul LoDuca
Odds: 1:4750.
262,643 / 4,750 = 55.29 TOTAL Group A autos in hobby packs.
55.29 / 5 = 11 autos of each player in hobby packs.
Assuming that 3/4 of the autos are in hobby packs, 11 = 3/4 of the total number of autos, so there are 15 of each Group A Auto total.
Group B:
This is where it starts to get shady. ALL of the big name rookies in this set are in Group B, along with a few scrubs thrown in for good measure. At the stated hobby odds of 1:150, you would need to open 7 1/2 boxes of 20 packs each to pull one of these cards. For set builders like myself, it means that about half the autograph set is ridiculously short printed.
32 cards in this group - Alex Gordon, Akinori Iwamura, Andy LaRoche, Andrew Miller, Brian Stokes, Cameron Maybin, Chris Stewart, Chase Wright, Fred Lewis, Felix Pie, Hideki Okajima, Hunter Pence, Joaquin Arias, Jared Burton, Jon Coutlangus, Joba Chamberlain, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Justin Upton, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Kurt Suzuki, Michael Bourn, Matt Lindstrom, Nick Gorneault, Phil Hughes, Ryan Braun, Ryan Z. Braun, Travis Buck, Tyler Clippard, Tim Lincecum, Travis Metcalf, and Yovanni Gallardo
262,643 / 150 = 1,751 TOTAL Group B autos in hobby packs
1,751 / 32 = 55 autos of each player in hobby packs, and 73 Blue autos TOTAL of each player. This means that the unnumbered blue autos of each Group B player are almost as tough to pull as the "Special Edition" red ink version that is numbered /52.
Group C:
This one's easy. There's only one player in Group C, Rocky Cherry.
262,643 / 3,149 = 83 Rocky Cherry autos in hobby packs. 111 Rocky Cherry autos total.
Group
Almost as easy. Two players in Group D, Joel Hanrahan and Jason Miller.
262,643 / 1,049 = 250 Group D Autos in hobby packs.
125 of each player, 167 Total. It seems like there are more Jason Miller autos than Joel Hanrahan, but I could be wrong. I believe Miller was originally in Group E.
Group E:
10 Cards in this group. Angel Sanchez, Brian Buscher, Billy Petrick, Brian Wolfe, Chase Headley, Mike Zagurski, Mark McLemore, Phil Dumatrait, Ryan Budde, and Zack Segovia.
262,643 / 54 = 4864 Group E Autos in hobby packs.
486 of each player, for a total print run of 649 per player.
Group F:
16 Cards in this group. Alberto Arias, Alexi Casilla, Aaron Laffey, Brian Barden, Brett Carroll, Brian Esposito, Ben Francisco, Cory Doyne, Darren Clarke, Edwar Ramirez, Jensen Lewis, Joseph Bisenius, Levale Speigner, Matthew Brown, Nathan Haynes, and Troy Cate.
262,643 / 9 = 29,183 Group F Autos in hobby packs.
1,823 per player, for a total print run of 2,431 per player.
So at long last, here are the odds along with the print runs of each Group.
Group A - 1:4750, Print run of 15 per player
Group B - 1:150, Print run of 73 per player
Group C - 1:3,149, Print run of 111 per player
Group D - 1:1049, Print run of 125 per player
Group E - 1:54, Print run of 649 per player
Group F - 1:9, Print run of 2,431 per player
I didn't take the odds on the blaster boxes into account, but I'm under the assumption that they fall under the retail odds. If not, I figure you can add about 10% to each print run.
I know this all seems pretty pedantic, but I have really enjoyed building these sets. I've been meaning to consolidate all the knowledge I have about the set in one thread, in the off chance that if anyone else ever decides to start it, this will be a good chunk of information to start with. I also want to have these facts for my own referral, and to be able to print this out to share with Topps.
Here's the same breakdown for the 2006 set. I don't have a retail pack in front of me, but from the blaster odds that were (so kindly) posted by DavidPuddy earlier in the thread, I'm just going to use those.
2006 (Hobby odds)
Group A: 1:11,000
Group B: 1:2,580
Group C: 1:130
Group
Group E: 1:111
Group F: 1:104
Group G: 1:32
Group H: 1:85
Group I: 1:30
Group J: 1:20
Red Ink Edition /52: 1:235
2006 (Retail Odds)
Group A: 1:52,000
Group B: 1:9,500
Group C: 1:410
Group
Group E: 1:372
Group F: 1:358
Group G: 1:115
Group H: 1:115
Group I: 1:111
Group J: 1:76
Red Ink Edition /52: 1:840
Just from eyeballing those numbers, it looks like I can just use the same assumption that 75% of the autos were in hobby packs. That might be a little off, but I guess it will work for these purposes. I don't have the luxury of hobby-only autographs like I did for 2007 to calculate the total number of hobby packs. I'll just figure out the total number of Red Ink Autos /52 that were inserted into hobby packs, and assume that 75% of that number is my "magic number" for hobby packs. Again, Red Ink autos don't exist for the veterans in this product (in the case of 2006, that means Groups A and B.)
There are 51 rookie autos in this set with a Red Ink parallel. So 51 (the number of different players) x 52 (the print run) = 2,652 red ink autographs.
2,652 x 235 (the number of hobby packs you would need to open to get a Red Ink auto) = 623,220. Less 25% to account for the retail Red Inks = 467,415. Even if this number is off (and therefore, I'm also off on the print runs for each group,) it will still give us a similar ratio of the short-printed autos to the more common ones.
Group A-
3 cards in this group, and they are TOUGH! Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Johnny Damon
Odds - 1:11,000
467,415 / 11,000 = 42 Group A autos TOTAL in hobby packs
14 of each player in hobby, total print run of 19.
Group B-
5 cards in this group, but I have never seen one of the (Manny) - Chipper Jones, David Ortiz, David Wright, Dontrelle Willis, and Manny Ramirez
Odds: 1:2,580
467,415 / 2,580 = 181 Group B autos TOTAL in hobby packs
36 of each player in hobby, total print run of 48. There seem to be more of David Ortiz than the others.
Group C-
This is the group with the better rookies. 11 cards total - Matt Garza, Boof Bonser, Joe Saunders, Stephen Drew, Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Cain, Justin Verlander, Melky Cabrera, Joel Zumaya, Jered Weaver, and Howie Kendrick
Odds: 1:130
467,415 / 130 = 3,596 Group C Autos TOTAL in hobby packs
329 of each player in hobby, total print run of 436.
Group D-
The lone wolf from 2006, Brian Anderson is the only player in Group D.
Odds: 1:912
467,415 / 912 = 513 Brian Anderson autos in Hobby, 683 total.
Group E-
6 players - Angel Guzman, Bill Bray, Brian Bannister, Yusmeiro Petit, Chris Iannetta, Dan Uggla
Odds: 1:111
467,415 / 111 = 4,211 Group E Autos TOTAL in hobby packs
702 of each player in hobby, 936 total.
Group F-
4 players - Joel Guzman, Chuck James, Jeff Mathis, Angel Pagan
Odds: 1:104
467,415 / 104 = 4494 Group F Autos total in hobby packs
1124 of each player in hobby, 1498 total.
Group G-
10 players in this group, and some surprisingly good cards - Buck Coats, Jeff Karstens, Matt Kemp, Mike Napoli, Fabio Castro, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jonathan Papelbon, Reggie Abercrombie, Ryan O'Malley, and Kendry Morales.
Odds: 1:32
467,415 / 32 = 14,607 Group G Autos total in hobby packs.
1,461 of each player in hobby, 1948 total.
Group H-
Only 3 players in this group - Anibal Sanchez, Franklin Gutierrez, and Anthony Lerew
Odds: 1:85
467,415 / 85 = 5,499 Group H Autos total in hobby packs.
1,833 of each player in hobby, 2444 total.
Group I-
7 players in this group - Brian Slocum, Chris Mabeus, John Van Benschoten, Matt Albers, Josh Sharpless, Scott Mathieson, and T.J. Bohn
Odds: 1:30
467,415 / 30 = 15,581 Group I Autos total in hobby packs.
2,226 of each player in hobby, 2,968 total.
Group J-
9 players in this group, and it is not pleasant - Ben Zobrist, Edward Mujica, Emiliano Fruto, Enrique Gonzalez, Erick Aybar, Josh Kinney, Kevin Frandsen, Yurendell De Caster, and Tom Mastny.
Odds: 1:20
467,415 / 20 = 23,371 Group J Autos total in hobby packs.
2,597 of each player in hobby, 3,462 total.
So here's the breakdown of the 2006 set. If these numbers are off, it isn't by much. Can you imagine these poor guys that signed over 3,000 cards? That print run is just insane - a monster box of cards that needed to be signed individually! No wonder those guys didn't do much in the bigs. Their hands must have been completely cramped up if they had any free time to play baseball.
Group A: 1:11,000, Print run of 19 per player.
Group B: 1:2,580, Print run of 48 per player.
Group C: 1:130, print run of 436 per player.
Group
Group E: 1:111, print run of 936 per player.
Group F: 1:104, print run of 1,498 per player.
Group G: 1:32, print run of 1,948 per player.
Group H: 1:85, print run of 2,444 per player.
Group I: 1:30, print run of 2,968 per player.
Group J: 1:20, print run of 3,462 per player.
If anyone is still reading, and I doubt you are, I'm going to post the redemptions I got from Topps. Again, the main point of this is to have something to print out and send in when I return the cards to them. I scanned the cards they sent me, along with the letter that came with each card (if there was a letter at all.) I thought it was interesting that some replacements didn't come with any letter, some came with a full letter, and others with a scrap of paper.
• 2007 Brian Stokes auto (Group B, print run of 73) replaced with 2006 Brian Bannister auto (Group E, print run of 936.)
Unacceptable. Will be returned.
• 2007 Kevin Kouzmanoff Red Auto (Group B player, print run of 52) replaced with 2007 Brett Carroll Red Auto (Group F player, print run of 52.)
The print run is the same, but a Group B player who is an everyday major leaguer is not exactly the same as a Group F player who has struggled in a couple of MLB at bats. However, I like Carroll, and I think he has some potential, so for some reason I'm hoarding his red autos from this set. Topps dodged a bullet here.
Marginally acceptable. I will grudgingly keep this card.
• 2007 Combo Auto Akinori Iwamura / Andy LaRoche /25 replaced by a 2006 Bowman Sterling Refractor Trevor Crowe /199.
The card that inspired me to finish this thread. An on-card dual auto /25 of two major league stars, replaced by a no-name rookie /199 with a sticker autograph from a completely different set. However, this card arrived the day after the Crowe. Topps sent me the card they had already replaced. I was thrilled to get it. The Crowe will be heading back to Topps. I know they probably don't care what happens once they ship a replacement out, but I feel that since they lived up to their end of the redemption card, I have no business keeping the extra auto.
Acceptable! Thanks Topps!
• 2007 Akinori Iwamura auto (Group B, print run of 73) replaced with a 2006 Matt Garza Auto (Group C, print run of 436)
Unacceptable. Will be returned.
• 2007 Travis Buck auto (Group B, print run of 73) replaced with a 2006 Chris Iannetta auto (Group E, print run of 936.)
Unacceptable. Will be returned.
• 2007 Tyler Clippard auto (Group B, print run of 73) replaced with a 2007 Topps Finest Troy Tulowitzki auto.
Unacceptable. A sticker auto from a completely different set. Not a bad player, but I have no use for it.
• 2007 Andrew Miller Red auto (Group B, print run of 52) replaced with a 2007 Chase Wright red auto (Group B, print run of 52.)
Acceptable. Chase Wright is not exactly the type of pitcher that Andrew Miller has been, but it's a red auto, and one of the scarce Group B players.
• 2007 Paul LoDuca auto (Group A, print run of 15) replaced with a 2006 Bowman Sterling Lastings Milledge Base auto.
This one is from the "WTF" department at Topps. Milledge had rookie autographs in the 2004 product, and even though LoDuca isn't a superstar, the fact that his Group A, on-card auto from '52 rookies was replaced with this card is a joke.
What makes it even worse is that last year, I sent in a Jered Weaver '52 auto redemption in, which was promptly replaced with a Darrell Rasner autograph from Topps Series 2. I sent it back to Topps, and asked for a card that at least had a similar book value (the Weaver redemption booked $40, the Rasner booked $8.) Topps agrees that the redemption was bad, and they sent me a 2006 Topps Turkey Red Paul LoDuca Red auto /50 in return, which booked $40.
Thank you for reading all of this, but this is obviously an important issue to me. I have hundreds of dollars tied up in these cards, based on the assumption that your company would honor its word and keep the promise to collectors that is represented by a redemption card. In addition, I have the following cards which have not yet been redeemed, for obvious reasons. I want to speak with someone at your company in order to find suitable replacements for the cards I have already redeemed, as well as the following cards which I have not yet sent in: 1 Andrew Miller Blue Ink, 2 Andrew Miller Red Inks, 1 Akinori Iwamura Red Ink, 1 Travis Buck Red Ink, and 1 Tyler Clippard Red Ink. I called the customer service number, briefly explained the situation (literally a 10 second conversation), and I was told to return these cards to you. So, here they are, and I look forward to hearing from someone about this. Please keep in mind that I really do enjoy the products produced by your company, and I am not completely unreasonable, as evidenced by the replacements mentioned above which I feel were fair.
The best way to get in touch with me is to email me at xxx@gmail.com. Once I hear back from you, we can work towards putting this behind us and finding replacements which are fair to both of us.
Thanks so much, and I look forward to an email-
My Sandberg topps basic set
My Sandberg Topps Master set
You really put a lot of time into this and it shows. Very informative , I hope they send you blockbuster autos for the aggravation they've caused.
Dave
Now collecting:
Topps Heritage
1957 Topps BB Ex+-NM
All Yaz Items 7+
Various Red Sox
Did I leave anything out?
If you pull a redemption card of say (insert name here) don't they have that card in stock?
What am I missing here?
Steve
What sucks is when you purchase a redemption card on eBay for big bucks, redeem it, and then they send a $2 replacement.
Has anyone heard if Topps is putting out a '52' Rookies set this year?
CDsNuts, 1/9/15
that is one extensive, comprehensive post.
You not only deserve a proper reply from topps, they should write you an apology and PAY you for it.
Good luck !
2007 Topps '52 Laroche / Iwamura - replaced with 2006 Topps '52 Anibal Sanchez Red Auto /52
(not too shabby, since they actually redeemed this card. I needed the Sanchez.)
2007 Topps '52 Brian Stokes Blue Auto - replaced with 2006 Josh Kinney Red Auto /52
2007 Topps '52 Akinori Iwamura Blue Auto - replaced with 2006 Topps '52 Ryan O'Malley Red Auto /52
2007 Topps '52 Tyler Clippard Blue Auto - replaced with 2006 Topps '52 Tom Mastny Red Auto /52
2007 Topps '52 Travis Buck Auto - replaced with 2006 Topps '52 Mike Napoli Red Auto /52
2007 Topps '52 Paul LoDuca Auto - Replaced with 2006 Topps '52 Matt Cain Red Auto /52
I will post scans tonight. No word on what they plan to do with my other redemptions, but I will send them in and hope for the best. I feel like someone at Topps actually read my letter and addressed my concerns. I'll update this with whatever other replacements are sent.
Nice job.
CDsNuts, 1/9/15